The Los Angeles Dodgers have won back-to-back World Series titles. As a result, the baseball world is in panic mode. The Dodgers also had the highest payroll both of those seasons. You'll sense a trend here.
A trio of international free agents from Japan – Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki – have headlined the Dodgers advantage overseas. Add in their impressive scouting and development staff, along with their willingness to spend via trade and free agency, and you have an operation firing on all cylinders. But all good things must comes to an end, and one Dodgers contract may save baseball fans after all – but at a steep cost.
Will the Dodgers dynasty come to an end? Yamamoto's contract gives a hint
At some point, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have to stop spending. Their ownership group only has so much money to spend, and can only forfeit that capital to MLB so many times. Despite coming up huge in the 2025 postseason, it is Yoshinobu Yamamoto who could provide some insight into the Dodgers World Series window.
Dad sent me this doc (?) on Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing with the Dodgers.
— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) December 1, 2025
He was stressed after Joel Wolfe told him they needed the opt-out but the Dodgers weren't doing it, then celebrations after they caved on the opt-outs, and relief finding out the final offer and taking it. pic.twitter.com/jt4vxkKu6J
Back when Yamamoto was negotiating his contract with Los Angeles, agent Joel Wolfe made sure his client asked for an opt-out clause. Opt outs are critical for any free agents, especially starting pitchers, who suffer far too many injuries and are essentially precious cargo at this point. Yamamoto asked for an opt-out after the 2029 season. Assuming he keeps pitching like this, he'll receive a contract well north of the $325 million deal he signed with the Dodgers back in 2024.
What it would take for Yamamoto to leave the Dodgers
To put it simply, if Yamamoto is an NL Cy Young-caliber pitcher the next three years, he could very well leave the Dodgers. Yamamoto is the beneficiary of a great lineup and, perhaps soon, an elite bullpen. He's on one of the best teams in baseball, and therefore should get plenty of chances to shine while the lights are brightest. If this October was any indication, Yamamoto will only increase his value from there.
It's impossible to look ahead to 2029. The Dodgers are a rapidly-aging roster, though, and will need to get younger in a hurry. Yoshi flirted with a few teams in free agency back in 2024 before signing in LA. Some would argue the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays all have better trajectories in the next 3-4 years than the Dodgers. That is the price of winning, and the Dodgers were willing to secure a World Series at any cost – even if it means losing Yamamoto in a few seasons.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto would leave a lot on the table to ditch Dodgers
Yamamoto's first opt-out would leave over $33 million on the table. Assuming he stays healthy, he should leave. Yamamoto would only be in his early-30's, and thus could secure another long-term deal for even more capital elsewhere, this time as a proven commodity. Should he get hurt – which is a scenario I wouldn't wish on him – his value would go down immensely.
An early look at the starting pitching market suggests he'll be competing with his own teammate – Dodgers starting pitcher Blake Snell – along with former NL Cy Young winner Spencer Strider for the largest contract given out that winter. A lot could happen between now and then, however, including a Dodgers collapse none of us see coming.
Why Yamamoto's deal has only increased likelihood of a lockout
MLB owners are thirsty for a lockout, if only so they can impose a salary cap. MLBPA is unlikely to agree to this, but if the Dodgers three-peat in 2026, something many pundits including myself will likely predict should they have a successful winter, then the chatter will only increase.
Rob Manfred has already put together a fan council to weigh in on such matters. You'll be shocked to hear they are in favor of more competitive balance, and thus a salary cap. I'm sure these fans were chose out of a police lineup, but the point remains. A 12-year, $325 million deal shouldn't be affordable for a team that was already over the luxury tax.
Yet, here I am. If the Dodgers dynasty does come to an end, 2030 is a good bet since Yamamoto and Snell are set to leave. However, if owners cave on a cap or floor – thus making the end product even worse than it already is – LA will stop at nothing to ruin this sport for everyone but their fanbase.