Aaron Judge began the year as the presumptive favorite to win another AL MVP award, but he only added to his case by putting together a ridiculous first couple of months. He was historically dominant. Unfortunately, he, along with the rest of his New York Yankees teammates, has struggled mightily recently, and that's opened the door for a player like Cal Raleigh to potentially swoop in and steal the MVP award.
You might not believe me since his overall numbers are still video game-like, but Judge has just two hits in his last 20 at-bats with 13 strikeouts over his last six games. One of those hits did result in a home run, but this past week has been as bad as Judge has looked at the plate probably since last April.
On the flip side, Raleigh had another huge night for the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday, hitting a grand slam and driving in six runs in a big win. Raleigh even made some rare history along the way.
Tonight the @Mariners' Cal Raleigh became the first player in MLB history to:
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) June 18, 2025
- drive in 6+ runs
- hit a grand slam
- steal a base
- outhit the entire opposing team
...all in the same game (since RBI became an official stat in 1920). pic.twitter.com/wEp9hiBTI7
While Raleigh is having a ridiculous season, the award still feels like Judge's to lose for now, even amid his slump.
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Cold streak isn't enough for Aaron Judge to lose his spot as AL MVP favorite
Nobody likes a cold streak, but what Aaron Judge is doing even in spite of that is ridiculous. With the 2-for-20, Judge is still slashing .379/.469/.740 with 26 home runs and 60 RBI, He leads the AL in hits, runs, RBI, average, OBP, OPS, and total bases. As impressive as those numbers are on the surface, it gets better.
Judge has a 230 WRC+, meaning he's 130 percent better than league average offensively. Nobody else is above a 181 WRC+. He's worth 5.8 fWAR. Nobody else is worth over 4.4 fWAR. He's been far and away the. best hitter and most complete player in the majors.
Again, no slump is fun, and this cold streak might be what ends Judge's pursuit of hitting .400, but his numbers are still absurd. It's going to take more than a one-week cold streak for Judge to lose his top spot.
Cal Raleigh is gaining ground on Aaron Judge by the day
Judge should still be viewed as the favorite, but Raleigh is certainly making things more interesting than most would've thought. What Judge has done has been historic, but the same can be said for Raleigh, who has arguably been the second-best player in the sport.
Raleigh is slashing .266/.374/.624 with 27 home runs and 60 RBI in 71 games for the Mariners. The only reason Judge isn't currently on track to win the Triple Crown is that Raleigh leads the majors with 27 home runs. He's also tied with Judge with 60 RBI.
Raleigh's numbers are not quite as impressive as Judge's, but context does matter. Judge's supporting cast is far better, his home ballpark is far easier to hit in, and producing offensively at an elite level is a lot easier to do as a right fielder than as a catcher. Raleigh, having the offensive year he's had, would be ridiculous by itself, but the fact that he's doing it as an elite defender makes it even more special.
Raleigh has been an underrated catcher for quite some time, but he's taken his game up to another level this season. His 181 WRC+ is second in the majors, and his 4.4 fWAR is also second. Judge is still the favorite, but if he continues to slump and Raleigh continues to play as he has all year, the conversation could start becoming very interesting in a month or two.