CJ Abrams' explosion sets up a historic trade deadline bidding war

The Washington Nationals are predictably struggling out of the gate, but there are real positives — starting with shortstop CJ Abrams.

The 25-year-old lefty is already an All-Star with a few strong seasons under his belt, but now it seems like Abrams is taking "the leap." We can only write so much in stone after 18 games, but the metrics back up his absurd production.

CJ Abrams is on a torrid pace for the Nationals

Abrams' stats right now are MVP-caliber. He has been around a while, so it's easy to forget how young he still is, but He's still at the front end of his prime. He was a 3.1 fWAR player in 2025, too — the impact has always been overwhelmingly positive, even with his well-documented faults. Now it seems he has addressed many of those faults.

Here are his numbers through 18 games. Not necessarily sustainable, but also hard to deny:

(Numbers in bold lead the National League)

Abrams is the best shortstop in MLB on paper. He will eventually regress to the mean — let's not act like he's preferable to Bobby Witt Jr. or Gunnar Henderson in the grand scheme of things — but there's no reason to believe Abrams can't compete for some end-of-season hardware, either this season or in the near future.

Here are his percentile rankings at Baseball Savant, which paint the picture of a well-rounded, four-tool superstar (he is still a mixed bag at shortstop, but his hit tool and athleticism will far outweigh any defensive shortcomings):

That leaves the Nationals at a complicated crossroads. It's been a while since there was such a clear, cornerstone-level talent in D.C., and yet Abrams has less than two years remaining on his contract. He's a free agent in the 2027-28 offseason if the Nationals don't extend him. And we know the Nationals won't extend him with their well-documented payroll restrictions.

Abrams was a popular name in offseason trade rumors. With his value suddenly peaking, does Washington stay the course and pray for an impossible Wild Card push — or should the Nats bite the bullet and cash in before the trade deadline when his value is highest?

What is CJ Abrams' return value on the trade market?

We need only look at last year's trade deadline to see just how rare a midseason Abrams sweepstakes would be.

It's rare for true stars with multiple years of club control to be dealt midseason. A couple standout relievers broke that mold — Mason Miller to San Diego and Jhoan Durán to Philadelphia — but both commanded multiple top-shelf prospects in return. The A's received shortstop Leo De Vries, MLB Pipeline's No. 4 overall prospect, for Miller. The Twins received catcher Eduardo Tait (No. 58 at MLB Pipeline) and pitcher Mick Abel, with the latter already a critical piece of Minnesota's Major League rotation.

Carlos Correa was dealt with a few years of club control left, but he's over 30 and on the decline (and there's a deep personal connection to Houston, where he ended up). Other All-Stars, like Eugenio Suárez, Shane Bieber and Josh Naylor, were on expiring contracts (and in Bieber's case, coming off of a major elbow injury).

We probably shouldn't put Abrams in the Juan Soto category, but trades of that magnitude historically occur in the offseason, when opposing front offices operate with far greater flexibility. If the Nationals wait until the winter, however, Abrams' clock officially starts ticking, and teams are less desperate outside the hothouse of a pennant race. Still valuable, but teams will typically give up more for three guaranteed bites at the postseason apple rather than two.

The Nationals can almost certainly get two or more top-100 prospects for Abrams at this stage, with the potential for a seismic, damn near historic return package. There's a difference between a great reliever and a great shortstop. Teams are more aggressive than ever when it comes to forking over major assets for win-now upgrades. The Nats can reset their future and substantially boost their farm system with an Abrams trade, which should align with the forward-thinking goals of new GM Paul Toboni.

One factor worth noting is the potential for a lockout in 2027, which could impact the lifespan of Abrams' contract and force other GMs to second-guess the asset haul required to pull off such a major trade. That said, Abrams is too good at the moment; Washington can set the market and meaningfully change its franchise trajectory if Toboni has the guts to move Abrams right now, at the absolute peak of his value.

Potential CJ Abrams landing spots

Texas Rangers

Early winners of the Brandon Nimmo-Marcus Semien swap, the Rangers are hoping to get back into the competitive fray. The American League is wide open right now and Abrams can move the needle considerably. The Rangers can move him to second on third, replacing either Josh Jung or Josh Smith, both of whom are negative-fWAR players so far this season. That would mitigate Abrams' defensive shortcomings. Meanwhile, Abrams batting cleanup behind Nimmo, Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager a mighty compelling concept.

New York Yankees

Another logical AL destination for Abrams, the Yankees need to wake up their bats. Abrams is a massive offensive upgrade over Ryan McMahon or Anthony Volpe. He can also serve as a hedge against Jazz Chisholm's upcoming free agency. The Yankees might feel more comfortable paying Abrams long term, and New York is one of the few clubs with the resources necessary to extend Abrams — or even to win a bidding war on the open market.

Philadelphia Phillies

Washington probably doesn't want to trade Abrams in the division, especially to a team with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper — all former Nationals. Value is value, though, and the Phillies are in a position where the front office needs to be aggressive. After whiffing on Bo Bichette in the offseason, Abrams would be an awesome midseason pivot, allowing the Phillies to upgrade over Alec Bohm at third or Bryson Stott at second. Few "contenders" more desperately need another bat to elevate the middle of their lineup.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Don't look now, but the Pirates finally feel like a team with enough firepower to compete in the NL Central. Pittsburgh has a surplus of pitching and a deep farm system from which to trade. The Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn additions have already worked wonders to snap the Pirates' lineup into gear. Pair a looming Konnor Griffin breakout with an Abrams trade, presumably swapping him in for Jared Triolo at third base, and the Buccos have the feel of a legitimate contender.

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