The Hot Stove is working overtime despite the holiday, with the Toronto Blue Jays handing a whopping seven-year, $210 million deal to righty Dylan Cease on the night before Thanksgiving. It's a massive amount of money, making Cease the fifth-highest paid right-handed pitcher in the sport. It was also enough to get arguably the top arm available in free agency to sign on the dotted line a full two weeks before the Winter Meetings even begin.
From strictly a value perspective, the math here probably doesn't add up. Then again, free agency is never the place to go for value, or a place where cooler heads prevail. The fact remains that the Blue Jays now have Cease on their roster, and several other would-be contenders don't. That's going to sting in a big way for these four teams in particular.
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Four World Series contenders who should regret whiffing on Dylan Cease
Chicago Cubs
So if Jed Hoyer expects everyone to be OK with simply moving on from Kyle Tucker after only one season, where exactly is that money going to go?
Cease made all the sense in the world as the Cubs' top target this winter, not only because this rotation needs one more impact arm but because he's exactly the sort of powerful, righty innings eater who can help anchor things ahead of Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. And yet, despite being in one of the biggest markets in the country, and despite a fan base that helps them print money on an annual basis, apparently $30 million a year for Cease's services was enough to blow Chicago out of the water.
It's undoubtedly a lot of money; heck, it might even be too much money, strictly speaking. But at a certain point, you can't be so attached to being the most rational person in an irrational market. The Cubs need pitching, and this is what pitching costs. Maybe they'll be able to make a run at someone like Framber Valdez, and swing a trade for Joe Ryan. If not, it's time to ask some tough questions.
New York Mets
Speaking of big-market teams that need to learn how to get comfortable being uncomfortable. David Stearns is clearly building something to last in Queens, much to the consteration of Mets fans everywhere. But Juan Soto is now squarely in his prime, and Francisco Lindor isn't getting any younger; the window is now, and the window requires far better starting pitching than what New York had for much of last season.
Cease would've helped change that in a big way, both by providing much more swing and miss than any Mets starter not Nolan McLean and also, crucially by just providing innings. Only three teams got fewer innings from their starting pitchers last season than New York did; only three cracked the 100-inning mark, and only two threw more than 114. Cease, by contrast, has cleared at least 165 in each of the last five seasons.
Adding him to this rotation would've not only lengthened the rotation, but also taken a load off of what was an exhausted bullpen by the end of the regular season. It remains to be seen under what circumstances Stearns will be willing to go above and beyond to get the guy he wants, but until he does, this starting staff will continue to be a liability.
Baltimore Orioles
Similarly, the Orioles don't have much time to wait. Adley Rutschman only has two years of team control remaining, while Gunnar Henderson has three (and should be due a long-term extension any day now). But Baltimore's pitching situation remains a problem, especially after MIke Elias shipped Grayson Rodriguez out in exchange for Angels outfielder Taylor Ward. There's precious little in the way of reliable arms behind Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish right now, and Rogers is a free agent next winter and Bradish comes with a lengthy injury history.
Elias did a lot of talking early this offseason about how this time would be different, how Baltimore's new ownership group was finally ready and willing to spend around this homegrown core. Cease wasn't the only option available, but he was probably the best fit, and his free agency ended the way just about every O's target's has in the Elias tenure. It's hard to see how Baltimore can capitalize on the Henderson/Rutschman era without getting aggressive in acquiring pitching. Unfortunately, they've forfeited the benefit of the doubt at this point.
San Francisco Giants
We know Buster Posey is desperate to get San Francisco back to the postseason after another nondescript year in 2025. The Giants will need more pitching to do it, as there's precious little in the way of reliable depth behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray right now. Signing Cease would've been an aggressive solution, but well, this franchise needs to be acquiring impact talent in any way possible, at any position.
Maybe there's a run at Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger in the works. But if San Francisco wants to avoid another season in which their pitching staff runs out of steam, they need more known quantities, and one of the most known of all just went off the board. There should be plenty of money for Posey to spend; whether he can actually convince someone to come is another question.