Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies found a ruthless way to ruin Bryce Harper's birthday

We felt like we had a pretty good grasp on what might come up as Philadelphia Phillies president Dave Dombrowski conducted his year-end press conference on Thursday afternoon. What needed to improve after two straight NLDS exits? Why was Rob Thomson and his entire coaching staff allowed another year? How much money would the team have to work with this winter? How many of Philly's marquee free agents — Ranger Suarez, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto — would return?

Safe to say we didn't have "toss passive-aggressive insults at Bryce Harper" on our bingo cards. And yet, here was Dombrowski, responding to a question about whether Harper can return to being an elite player in the future: "I guess we only find out if he becomes elite [again] or he continues to be good," Dombrowski told reporters. "Can he rise to the next level again? I don't really know that answer."

Well okay then. Talking that way about the face of your franchise and clubhouse leader, the man who helped lead you to the World Series back in 2022, is one thing. Going out of your way to do it on his birthday is something else entirely.

It's hard to figure out what was gained by potentially alienating Harper ahead of a critical offseason; he's not going anywhere, and Philly needs him happy and producing if it has any hope of finally getting over the hump next season. Dombrowski could have just pivoted to platitudes, saying how much the team valued Harper while also acknowledging the reality of a player who just turned 33 years old.

And yet ... well, now that you mention it, this does seem like a pretty pressing question, one that the Phillies will need to reckon with sooner rather than later.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.

Are Bryce Harper's days as an MVP candidate behind him?

Harper's legacy is set in stone. He's one of the players of his generation, a former NL Rookie of the Year and two-time MVP with a lifetime .905 OPS. Harper was a superstar from pretty much the moment he stepped foot on a Major League field, and he's authored more memorable moments than we can recount here. He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer five years after whenever he decides to retire.

But it's also hard to ignore that he's not quite the world-beater he used to be. Harper's .844 OPS this season was his lowest since his age-21 campaign way back in 2014. His slugging percentage was his lowest since 2016. And while he's earned his reputation as a playoff riser, he was M.I.A. this October, with just three hits across 18 at-bats in the NLDS loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was by no means a bad season from Harper, but it also wasn't what the Phillies have grown to expect. He's also not getting any younger. So is this a blip on the radar, or the start of a trend?

First, the good news: Harper still hits the ball very, very hard, and his xwOBA ranked in the 91st percentile this season. His .292 BABIP was nearly 30 full points lower than his career mark, suggesting there was some bad luck at play. Unless he falls off a cliff overnight, Harper still projects to be an excellent hitter next season.

That said, that xwOBA has declined in each of the past two years, as have his batted-ball metrics — from top-of-the-scale to merely very good. Maybe this is how the aging curve works; not all at once, but a slow drip, in which case Harper may still be a very valuable player but will no longer be an MVP candidate. The problem, though, is that the Phillies haven't put the roster around him to cushion the fall.

Dave Dombrowski made the mistake of saying what every Phillies fan was thinking

Harper's decline is understandable, and would be more than acceptable in a different context. Unfortunately, the Phillies find themselves needing more from him moving forward rather than less. This offense once again came up short when it mattered most, all but disappearing for most of the NLDS loss. And now Schwarber and Realmuto might walk in free agency, while Trea Turner isn't getting any younger himself.

It's also not clear how Philly might meaningfully improve this winter. Re-signing Schwarber would be a great start, but what else is there? Is this team willing to pay what it'll take to win the bidding war for Kyle Tucker? Is Cody Bellinger, removed from the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, really moving the needle for this lineup? Will a top prospect like Aidan Miller or Justin Crawford prove ready earlier than expected?

The reality is that the Phillies offense will almost certainly look similar to what we saw in 2025, especially considering the work that needs doing to replace Ranger Suarez in the rotation and fix the beleaguered bullpen. Which cranks up the heat on Harper: Because if he's a 125 OPS+ bat instead of a 150 OPS+, suddenly the picture looks a whole lot different.

Should Dombrowski have aired all those anxieties in public, in this context? Almost certainly not. Again: There's nothing to be gained by setting this sort of tone for your offseason. That doesn't mean he's wrong, though, and that question could hang over this team for years to come.