The first big domino of the MLB Winter Meetings is a doozy, as the Philadelphia Phillies are bringing back star slugger Kyle Schwarber on a five-year, $150 million deal that flew clear past most people's projections at the start of the offseason.
But the Phillies were the definition of desperate; they needed to find a way to keep Schwarber around if they had any hope of finally making good on this World Series window, and there were no alternatives on the market. So Dave Dombrowski went the extra mile to get a deal done — and now the other teams hoping to land Schwarber are forced to pivot.
Schwarber had one of the most robust markets of any free agent this winter, a list that included big markets like the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets as well as small-market underdogs like Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates. All of them are now looking elsewhere to find offensive upgrades over the offseason, but where should each of them turn now?
Baltimore Orioles: LHP Framber Valdez
It never made much sense to me that the Orioles would be linked to Schwarber in the first place. Sure, they were in need of some added oomph after ranking just 19th in baseball in slugging percentage last year, but first base and DH seemed pretty well accounted for between Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo (hardly ready for full-time catching duties) and Ryan Mountcastle. Even if Schwarber would be a substantial upgrade over that group, was it worth shelling out $30 million per year for?
The reality is that Baltimore's offense can still be just fine if it just stays healthy, and if young players like Mayo, Dylan Beavers and others take a step forward. After adding Taylor Ward and Ryan Helsley already this offseason, the time has come for Mike Elias to finally get serious about addressing this starting rotation. There's money in the coffers here, and Valdez is exactly the sort of quality innings-eater the O's need.
Boston Red Sox: 1B Pete Alonso
Alonso will no doubt feel emboldened after Schwarber was able to get $30 million a year over five years in free agency. The Mets don't feel likely to give him anything approaching that sort of deal, never mind a longer one, but Boston might be the ideal fit. Alonso would do serious damage given the dimensions of Fenway Park, and the long-term presence of Triston Casas (once he returns from injury) would allow the Red Sox to ease Alonso into DH duties.
Boston was seriously lacking in the power department by the end of last season, and while you can hope for internal growth (and some better health), this lineup is crying out for one pure bopper in the middle. A Schwarber reunion would've been a dream, but this isn't a bad plan B.
Cincinnati Reds: 1B/DH Ryan O'Hearn
For a moment there, it seemed as though Cincy really would lure the Ohio native back to his childhood team. Alas, money has a way of talking at this time of year, and this Reds ownership group and front office have never been willing to play in waters this deep during free agency.
They still need to add some pop to this lineup, though, as a playoff-caliber starting rotation got hung out to dry far too often last season. O'Hearn proved he was more than just a platoon bat in 2025, and he could really take off in the friendly dimensions of Great American Ball Park. He figures to be much more reasonably priced, too.
New York Mets: OF Kyle Tucker
Sure, two megadeals for corner outfielders in consecutive offseasons might not be ideal roster construction, but sometimes you just have to go wherever the talent takes you. After missing out on Schwarber, and with seemingly only lukewarm interest in bringing back Alonso, it feels like Tucker is the obvious move for David Stearns this winter — especially given the hole in left field after the Brandon Nimmo trade.
The infield in New York is still largely set, with Marcus Semien at second, Brett Baty at first and Mark Vientos potentially sliding over to first. The Mets should be targeting a middle-of-the-order bat regardless of position, and Tucker is the best one left on the market by a mile.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 1B/3B/OF Kazuma Okamoto
I never gave much credence to the notion that the Pirates were serious suitors for Schwarber, both due to Bob Nutting's historic unwillingness to spend and also because it seemed hard to believe that Schwarber would choose to sign with a team that hasn't meaningfully contended in over a decade now. Props to Pittsburgh for giving what appears to have been an honest try, though, and the good news is there are still plenty of ways to upgrade this lineup on a budget.
Okamoto isn't overly sexy, but he's been arguably the most well-rounded hitter in Japan in recent years, blending 20-homer pop with excellent plate skills. He could fit several places, and help the Pirates' offense at all of them, all without breaking the bank. If Nutting really is serious about throwing some money around, he still has the opportunity to prove it.