From LVP to MVP: Regrading the Javy Baez contract after Tigers redemption

Javy Baez's redemption arc is the best surprise of the MLB postseason.
Division Series - Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers - Game Four
Division Series - Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers - Game Four | Duane Burleson/GettyImages

In the 2021 MLB offseason, the Detroit Tigers signed Javier Baez to a six-year, $140 million contract. It was Al Avila's last-ditch attempt to not just keep his job, but win around an aging core led by Miguel Cabrera. We all know how the next few years went. The Tigers were a bad baseball team, and Cabrera far from the player he once was. In fact, Detroit didn't make the postseason with Baez until 2024, and he didn't play much of a role in getting them there.

Still, AJ Hinch values Baez's clubhouse presence. This season was a bounce-back campaign for Javy, as he made the AL All-Star team before falling off a cliff in the second half. In typical Baez fashion, his season can be split into three parts. Javy was excellent in the first half of the season, playing a surprising amount of center field and doing whatever was asked of him by Hinch. In many ways, he was the $140 million player the Tigers thought they were acquiring in 2021. Then came the second half, in which Baez cratered and even earned the title of Least Valuable Player by Jayson Start of The Athletic, which seemed a bit harsh.

“That’s when it hit me: All-Star Game starter Javy has turned into Perennial LVP [least valuable player] candidate Javy right before our eyes. And hard as I tried, I was unable to look the other way,” Stark said.

To be fair to Stark, Baez was awful after the All-Star Break, posting a .213/.221/.294 slash line with just one home run. Entering the postseason, he was at the bottom of the Tigers lineup for a reason. But the playoffs changed everything.

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What changed for Javier Baez in the postseason

Hinch stuck with and trusted Baez in the postseason, even though he was slotted at the bottom of their lineup. If Detroit were to make it far on the AL side of the bracket, it would be because Javy was a catalyst. So far, Baez has been the Tigers best overall hitter so far in the postseason. While he's delivered clutch hit after clutch hit and been a menace defensively, Baez has looked much like the five-tool player former Detroit GM Al Avila thought he was getting all those years ago.

“One thing that we wanted to know for sure before we got deeper into this,” Avila said, “is that Javy wanted to come to Detroit to be a part of this renaissance, per se, and be a key part of it. We explained to him where we were as an organization, as a baseball team, and where we wanted to get to, and how we felt he could be a big part of making us better and getting us to the playoffs.”

Baez may not have been the catalyst that got Detroit back to October status, but he's been an undeniable positive force in their rebuild. Baez's at-bats look crisper, and he's not swinging at as many pitches far outside of the zone. Come the postseason, Baez altered his approach and played to his strengths. On Wednesday, that all paid off in a big way, as Javy hit a home run to extend Detroit's lead.

Regrading the Javy Baez contract four years later

Baez's contract was enormous at the time, but since he's been surpassed by far superior players. Javy's deal is tied for tenth in average annual value for shortstops as of this writing, and that could be surpassed again this winter. For a front office like the Tigers, however, Baez has been a mixed bag. Yes, he provides value in the clubhouse as a leader, but he's also incredibly inconsistent and forces tough decisions for manager AJ Hinch. Thankfully for Detroit, Hinch has been up for the task, moving Baez around the infield and even to center field when called upon.

One home run doesn't change the narrative behind Javy's deal. It hasn't quite worked out how the Tigers hoped. Detroit signed Baez when he was 29 years old, and he's had some of the worst seasons of his big-league career since then. He's made just one All-Star team with the Tigers, and that came this season. He fell off the map shortly thereafter.

Baez's deal will look much better if he can help turn the Tigers into a pennant-winning team, or better yet a World Series champion. Unless he has a historic postseason we'll never forget, the Baez deal remains an abject failure, despite some positive moments Detroit baseball fans have been waiting for.

Javier Baez contract grade: C-