Grading Opening Day overreactions from Paul Skenes is washed to Mike Trout is back

MLB's true return across an 11-game slate on Thursday did not disappoint: Paul Skenes did the exact opposite of what we have grown accustomed to seeing; the Mets drowned out all of the bad vibes of the winter; and someone seems to have convinced Mike Trout the year is actually 2012.

As you'd expect from baseball fans desperate for something to watch and analyze after months away, the overreactions are flying fast and furious after Opening Day. Here's what we're buying and selling about the current take cycle.

Opening Day overreaction: Paul Skenes is overrated

Ruling: Overreaction

When Paul Skenes is on the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates, it is usually an indication that the opposing team will be fighting to put runs on the board. Apparently the New York Mets have the greatest offense in MLB history — either that, or the reigning NL Cy Young winner is already washed at age 23. Those are the only two reasonable explanations for the Mets tagging Skenes for five runs in the first inning, right?

Obviously, neither one of those claims is fully accurate, but that didn't stop both from running rampant on social media while watching an 11-run performance by the Mets unfold behind that big first inning. The fact of the matter is that Skenes was mostly a victim of bad defense; he will recover and remain a favorite for the Cy Young in the National League, while New York's offense will be very good but probably not that good.

Opening Day overreaction: Mike Trout is BACK!

Ruling: Overreaction

There is no debate that baseball is better when Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout is on the field. But we've been deprived of that in recent years due to numerous injuries, and at age 34, it was fair to wonder whether we'd ever get that old high again. Which is why Thursday was so much fun, because apparently the 11-time All-Sar felt 11 years younger in the Angels' season debut.

L.A. and the Houston Astros were in a scoreless tie heading into the seventh inning, when Trout broke the drought by blasting a deep home run over the left-field seats. The superstar finished his day going 1-for-1 with that monstrous blast and an impressive three walks drawn, plus a stolen base for good measure.

As refreshing as it is to see Trout making a major impact on a game, let's pump the breaks on the "he's back!" talk. It has been six years since Trout has played 85+ games in a season. Even if he can be on the field for 100+ this year, it's not likely that he can sustain anything close to the pace of his stratospheric 2012-2019 run. Let's enjoy Trout's success when we get it, but let's also not expect him to be in the MVP race again.

Opening Day overreaction: Cristopher Sanchez for NL Cy Young

Rating: Accurate

While Skenes was busy getting shelled in Queens, the guy he beat out in the Cy Young race last season was dominating down I-95. Cristopher Sanchez looked just like he did in 2025 on Thursday, dominating the Texas Rangers while striking out 10 across six shutout innings. It's not an exaggeration to say that his changeup has become one of the nastiest weapons in the entire sport.

Skenes will get back to his old self, but it's also worth noting that a sub-2.00 ERA simply isn't very likely to be repeated — if only because defense and bad luck will get in the way. Last year's third-place finisher for NL Cy Young, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, looked great in his Opening Day start against the D-backs, but how much will the Dodgers really push him when an NL West title is a foregone conclusion and his health in October is paramount? And the other two candidates from 2025, Logan Webb and Freddy Peralta, hardly got off to inspiring starts to 2026.

Nothing about what Sanchez did last season feels fluky, or impossible to repeat. He's simply one of the very best in the league, and the Phillies are going to need his best all year long in order to claim a competitive NL East. That feels like a recipe for some hardware.

Opening Day overreaction: The Padres and Astros are in trouble

Rating: Accurate (mostly)

With all due respect to the Cubs, I'm not too worried about Chicago despite a deflating Opening Day loss to the lowly Washington Nationals. The two teams I'm really concerned about after just one game are San Diego and Houston — not just because they lost, but because they did so in a way that appeared to confirm our priors in a negative way.

The Padres entered this season with plenty of star power but not a ton of starting pitching depth. This team is relying a ton on Nick Pivetta to repeat what he did last season, and after getting rocked by Detroit in an 8-2 loss, that would seem to be a losing proposition. If Pivetta comes back to Earth a bit and Michael King can't stay healthy, San Diego will be in big trouble.

The Astros, meanwhile, began 2026 the same way they ended 2025: With an aging righty-heavy lineup getting dominated by a right-handed pitcher. This time it was the Angels' Jose Soriano, who fired six shutout innings in a 3-0 win for the Halos. Houston had a chance to balance its offense a bit over the winter and failed to do so, and now they could be stuck in neutral — or even worse if injuries strike Yordan Alvarez again.

Opening Day overreaction: The Dodgers will change the single-season wins record

Rating: Overreaction

Don't get it twisted: No one is fading the Dodgers, especially after their talent was on full display in a 8-2 win over Arizona on Thursday. This is more about incentives, or a lack of them.

The current mark is held by the 2001 Mariners, who won a whopping 116. It's hard to overstate how difficult that is to do: It's not enough to be the most talented team in the league, which Los Angeles certainly is; you also have to be lucky with injuries, and beyond that, you have to be extremely motivated.

That last point is the big question. The Dodgers are going to make the postseason and win their division. And beyond that, why should they sweat their win total? They won 93 games last season and still found their way to a second straight World Series title. The only thing that can reasonably derail a threepeat bid is the injury bug, which is why I expect L.A. to ease off the gas a bit and prioritize getting to October in one piece rather than make a run at regular-season history.