Shortly after Kyle Tucker bolted for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bo Bichette shocked the MLB world by signing with the New York Mets on a short-term, high-AAV deal. This leaves several teams interested in the two marquee free agents scrambling. As the only high-end free agent position player left, Cody Bellinger is licking his chops.
Bellinger now holds all the leverage as he looks to cash in on a long-term deal. Or so he might think. Does Bellinger's market really change much after these signings? Let's dive in.
What Cody Bellinger is reportedly looking for
Bellinger had an outstanding season with the New York Yankees, slashing .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs and 98 RBI while playing elite defense in the corner outfield. He proved to be an extremely valuable player with the Yankees and wants to be paid like it. It was reported not even a week ago that Bellinger was looking for a seven-year deal that'd pay him an AAV of roughly $37 million. Now that he's the best position player available, there's a chance that his demands have only increased.
Is Bellinger worth this price tag? Absolutely not. He's a brilliant defender in the corner outfield spots, but his bat has been remarkably inconsistent over the last half-decade, and he's already 30 years old. However, free agents are overpaid all the time. In no way were Tucker and Bichette worth the AAVs they got. Bellinger is looking for a bit less on the AAV front than what Bichette got, but four more years.
Belinger's agent, Scott Boras, is allowed to come up with any demands he wants. Unfortunately, he has yet to find a suitor willing to meet that bonkers asking price. Perhaps Bellinger being the only needle-moving free agent left could inspire a team to pay him the big bucks, but are we sure that'll happen?
Let's look at his market.
Examining Cody Bellinger's market after Tucker, Bichette signings
New York Yankees
No team has been linked to Bellinger more than the Yankees, and it isn't hard to see why. He enjoyed success in the Bronx, and he'd be a great fit in left field for the next half decade or longer. It's abundantly clear that Brian Cashman and Co. have limits. Will they go beyond them? Perhaps, but Bellinger would probably need to find a suitor willing to go beyond where the Yankees are before they're willing to do that. Doing so is easier said than done.
New York Mets
The New York Mets need an outfielder after trading Brandon Nimmo away and whiffing on their Kyle Tucker pursuit, but are they really sold on Bellinger on the kind of deal he seeks? If they were, wouldn't they have pivoted to Bellinger, who is a much better roster fit than Bichette, before signing Bichette? Perhaps the Mets would sign both players, but I sincerely doubt that David Stearns, an executive who shies away from handing out long-term deals, would give Bellinger the seven-year deal he seeks when he didn't go beyond four years for Tucker, a better and younger player.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers were linked sparingly to Bellinger this offseason, but that was before they won the Tucker sweepstakes. Could they go truly insane and sign Bellinger to play center field for them? Perhaps. It'd be foolish to rule the Dodgers out of anything. This wouldn't make much sense, though, and is really hard to envision.
Philadelphia Phillies
Perhaps the Philadelphia Phillies are miffed after whiffing on Bichette and are willing to go above and beyond to sign Bellinger to ensure they add a potent bat to their lineup. This is honestly what they should do, even if the price tag is a bit steep. The Phillies' window to win is now, and there isn't a better free agent out there for them to sign. It's just hard to imagine the Phillies offering Bellinger an AAV substantially higher than the one they were reportedly willing to offer Bichette, which is probably what it'd take to get a deal done.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays haven't been linked to Bellinger really at all, but might that change after missing out on both Tucker and Bichette? They could definitely use another position player upgrade, and Bellinger, a left-handed outfielder, would fit in nicely, but their lack of reported interest in signing him makes it hard to imagine they'd suddenly turn around and meet his demands.
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants have been seen as somewhat of a sleeper team for Bellinger, but this, too, is tough to picture. Bellinger, a left-handed hitter, wouldn't be the best fit at Oracle Park offensively, and reports seem to indicate that the Giants aren't exactly in the big-name market this winter. Maybe something can change, but this feels like a long shot.
Cody Bellinger doesn't hold the leverage he thinks he does
On the surface, Bellinger has all of the leverage. He's a free agent in his prime coming off a strong year, and he's the best option out there by far. His issue, though, is that there just isn't much of a market for his services. We can argue whether this should be the case or not, but it's just the reality.
This gives reason for a team like the Yankees, the only known suitor interested in giving Bellinger a five-year deal, to dig their heels in and stay firm at what they're offering. Where else is Belllinger going to get a better offer?
You can try and convince yourself that since he's the best free agent available, a desperate suitor will emerge, but nothing that's happened so far suggests that'll happen. It feels most likely that Bellinger will re-sign with the Yankees, and it'll be on New York's terms for the most part.
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