Scott Boras is one of, if not the, most successful agents in sports history. MLB fans might not love his methods and might be envious of his success, but more often than not, Boras does an outstanding job for himself and his clients.
With that being said, justified or not, Boras runs things by his rules for every one of his free agents. Again, it works more often than not, but in the case of Cody Bellinger, Boras's refusal to adapt could wind up costing him a life-changing payday.
Scott Boras is overplaying his hand with Cody Bellinger
Boras has gone out of his way to try to hype Bellinger up, really since free agency started — calling Bellinger "the only five-tool outfielder on the free agent market" at the Winter Meetings (despite Kyle Tucker's presence), and asking for a downright absurd amount of money. According to NJ.com's Bob Klapisch, Boras is seeking a seven-year deal that'd pay him roughly $37 million annually for his client.
I understand that Bellinger is a really good player, and Boras would be doing his client a disservice not asking for the moon. But we've reached mid-January, and there's no end in sight to Bellinger's free agency. At a certain point, Boras has to concede the fact that Bellinger is not worth Aaron Judge money. For reference, Judge signed a nine-year, $360 million deal to remain with the New York Yankees; he got two additional years and a slightly higher AAV, but those offers are too similar for it to make sense for Bellinger to get what Boras is asking for.
To put it simply, there isn't a team that's going to be willing to meet that gaudy asking price — and the longer Boras sticks to it, the more likely it is that teams will pivot elsewhere with their money.
Cody Bellinger's market isn't as robust as Scott Boras would like
Where is Boras going to find the team willing to meet that asking price? Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reported on Friday that the Yankees' latest offer was a five-year pact that would pay Bellinger upwards of $30 million annually. That's a strong offer that Boras might not like, but one that is unlikely to be topped.
It's abundantly clear that the Los Angeles Dodgers would only seriously entertain a marquee free agent like Bellinger on a short-term, high-AAV deal. The New York Mets are likely in the same boat. The Toronto Blue Jays appear to be solely interested in Kyle Tucker. The Philadelphia Phillies are in the Bo Bichette sweepstakes and appear unlikely to add another outfielder after signing Adolis Garcia. What other team is there?
The Yankees are the only team that looks to be somewhat comfortable giving Bellinger a long-term deal. Why would they meet Boras' asking price if they don't have to? Boras' side is the one that's going to have to adjust, especially since teams can pivot.
We've seen Scott Boras' playbook come back to haunt free agents before
Boras wants what he wants, and he is willing to wait a while to get it. We've seen this many times with free agents of his in the past. We've also seen Boras clients wait too long and have to settle for short-term deals with opt-outs. Bellinger himself did just that a couple of years ago, and is still looking to cash in long-term. Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso are examples of that from just last offseason. Now, Alonso was able to secure a long-term deal the following winter, and all signs indicate Bregman can do the same, but Bellinger would need to have a huge year in 2026 in order to capitalize in a similar fashion.
This could have brutal ramifications for a player like Bellinger, who is outstanding defensively but has been remarkably inconsistent offensively for the past half-decade. A rough 2026 could cost him his chance of cashing in.
The Yankees' offer is on the table for now, but what if they decide to pivot to signing Tucker instead? Not only is Tucker better, but he might even be amenable to a short-term, high-AAV deal. If the Yankees pivot, where does that leave Bellinger? What team would even be willing to match the deal New York reportedly has on the table for him now? If Bellinger passes on a five-year deal from the Yankees, will he ever sign a long-term deal?
Boras has every right to do what he's doing, and who knows — maybe a team will get desperate and hand Bellinger a ridiculous deal. All indications are, though, that Boras is going to have to pivot and take a contract that isn't to his liking. Refusing to do so could come with severe consequences for Bellinger.
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