Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh entered All-Star Weekend in Atlanta as the Major League leader in home runs with 38, a historic first half that had him in position to put up the greatest offensive season by a catcher in the history of the sport. He left it with one more feather in his cap, cruising to a win at the 2025 Home Run Derby on Monday night. Raleigh has been in the zone for months at this point, and he shows no sign of slowing down.
But now comes the hard part. Heading into the second half of the season, the Mariners sit at 51-45, five games back of the Houston Astros for first place in the AL West and 1.5 games up on the Tampa Bay Rays for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. If Seattle wants to make a push toward the postseason, they're going to need Raleigh to keep on mashing like he has been all year — but recent history has shown that Derby winners haven't performed well after the All-Star break.
Will Raleigh be able to break that trend? Only time will tell. But here's a look at how the last five MLB Home Run Derby winners have performed for the rest of the year.
2024: Teoscar Hernandez, OF Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year's Derby winner, Teoscar Hernandez, became the first Los Angeles Dodgers player to win the event. There's some good news here for Raleigh: Hernandez won a World Series with the Dodgers last season and even improved statistically after the All-Star break. His average home runs per game increased by .37 and his OPS increased slightly from .819 to .822.
2023: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr stole the show at the 2023 Home Run Derby, winning it in a thriller over Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena. But in the aftermath of his victory, Guerrero's OPS decreased from .875 to .794 for the rest of the year.
His average home run per game average increased from .148 to .191. Guerrero finished the 2023 season with 26 home runs as the Blue Jays lost in the AL Wild Card series to the Minnesota Twins.
2022: Juan Soto, OF Washington Nationals
Soto won the Derby with the Washington Nationals back in 2022. Just two weeks later, he'd be dealt to the San Diego Padres in one of the most significant trades in baseball history. Soto recorded 21 home runs with the Nationals compared to the six that he had after getting traded to the Padres.
Soto's average home runs per game decreased from .220 to .113 in the second half, and while he posted an .894 OPS in the first half with Washington, that number dipped to .778 in San Diego. Soto and the Padres finished the season by falling to the Philadelphia Phillies in five games in the NLCS.
2021: Pete Alonso, 1B New York Mets
New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso captured his second straight crown over former Orioles first baseman Trey Mancini. The Polar Bear also set a Derby record by recording a whopping 35 home runs in the first round.
Leave it to Alonso, arguably the greatest Derby specialist ever, to buck this trend. His second-half OPS increased from .806 to .842. Alonso's average home runs per game also increased from .218 to .270.
2019: Pete Alonso, 1B New York Mets
Alonso defeated Guerrero Jr. to win his first Home Run Derby title at Progressive Field in Cleveland. He'd go on to finish the season with an MLB-best 53 home runs. But compared to his win in 2021, his OPS and average home runs per game both declined.
Alonso entered the 2019 Derby averaging .337 home runs per game. Down the stretch, he averaged .319 home runs per game. Alonso's OPS after the Home Run Derby in 2019 also decreased from 1.024 down to .958.