How the Cincinnati Reds went from NL Central leaders to losers in 8 games

The Cincinnati Reds were flying high at the end of April, finishing the month with a 20-11 record — good for first place in what's been an uber-competitive NL Central. Sure, there were some red flags, but the Reds were finding ways to win, emerging victorious in each of their last five series to end the month. Unfortunately, they've gone 0-for-May thus far, losing each of the eight games they've played (four of which have come by one run).

That eight-game losing streak has taken the Reds from first to worst. They enter Saturday's action in sole possession of last place in the division and seven games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs. Things have taken a turn for the worst in the blink of an eye for Cincinnati. Here's how it all went down.

Reds stopped winning close games at a historic rate

The biggest reason why the Reds' hot start felt pretty unsustainable is just how much of it was fueled by winning close games. Of Cincy's 20 wins so far this season, only six have come by four or more runs. To take this further, the team won each of its first 12 (!) one-run games.

The Reds were playing close games just about every night, and, to their credit, they were winning them at a ridiculous clip. Winning 12-straight one-run games, particularly in such a short period of time, is practically unheard of. They've come back to reality over the past week, though, dropping four one-run games during their eight-game skid — three of which were walk-offs at Wrigley Field.

One-run games are essentially coin flips. The good teams win the close ones more often than not, sure, but you can't only be winning them. That was bound to regress to the mean a bit, and when you're in those games so consistently, one string of bad luck can reverse the course of any season.

Sal Stewart stopped playing like Superman

Part of why the Reds got off to such a hot start had to do with Sal Stewart, their rookie infielder, practically willing them to wins. Stewart finished the month of April slashing .281/.373/.570 with nine home runs and 29 RBI. Not only was Stewart crushing the ball, but he was more or less a one-man offense as every Reds hitter not named Elly De La Cruz were mired in a funk. Stewart and De La Cruz combined to drive in 53 of the Reds' 133 runs through April 30, nearly 40 percent of the team's total run production.

De La Cruz has gotten off to a slow start in May other than one three-hit game, but Stewart is the bigger story here. One of MLB's most prolific run producers in April, Stewart has gone 4-for-33 with one home run and one RBI in eight games in May. He has just one extra-base hit (the home run) and has a .368 OPS. He has gone from being one of MLB's best hitters in April to a -5 wRC+ guy in May.

Obviously, the sample size is microscopic, and there's every reason to believe Stewart will get hot again. But what if he isn't leading the Majors in RBI as he did through April? The Reds were barely winning games with Stewart playing the role of Superman. Can they find ways to win when Stewart isn't driving in runs at will? So far, the answer to that is an emphatic no, and that's a problem.

Reds bullpen finally began to crack

Stewart and De La Cruz got most of the shine, but overall this was not a very good offense. Instead, it was the Reds' bullpen that played a huge role in the team's April success: Cincy ended April with the fifth-best bullpen ERA in the league despite throwing more innings than just about every unit around them. Their only weak link was Emilio Pagan, and even he only allowed a run to score in two of his last 10 appearances to finish April.

Well, the bullpen has begun to crack in May. The Reds' bullpen has a 9.29 ERA in May, the worst in the Majors. They've also already exceeded their April totals in blown saves (three so far in May, five in April) and losses (four vs. three). The bullpen has gone from close to dominant to an unmitigated disaster.

To make matters worse, Pagan, their closer, is set to miss a month or two with a hamstring strain. The righty wasn't off to a great start, but this puts even more pressure on a unit that's already reeling.

Reds' weaknesses all showed themselves at once

The Reds were winning games in spite of what appeared to be very clear flaws. Well, in May, those flaws have been exposed.

Offensively, when De La Cruz and Stewart aren't hot, this lineup has trouble scoring runs. They've scored more than four runs just twice in this eight-game skid, and they've scored one run or fewer three times as well. They've scored 23 runs total in their last eight games, averaging a shade under three runs per game. Two of those games saw them put up a combined 13 runs, so they've averaged less than two runs per game in their other six. It's been a slog, mostly.

Pitching-wise, it's also been a mess. The Reds were able to win games despite injuries to Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, but their starting pitching has lagged over the past week. Chase Burns continues to pitch well and Andrew Abbott had an encouraging start, but Brady Singer and Rhett Lowder each had poor showings. In fact, Lowder left his last start with a shoulder injury. Lodolo finally returned against the Astros on Friday but got knocked around in an ugly 10-0 loss.

The Reds were in most of these games this week despite their lineup and rotation struggles, but their bullpen, as mentioned above, imploded several times. It's hard for a bullpen to take four losses in a week, but Cincy's pulled that off.

The Reds shouldn't be considered buried yet by any means, but there were warning signs for weeks, and things predictably have come crashing down at a moment's notice.

More Cincinnati Reds news and analysis:

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow