Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are defying expectations with potent lineups and strong pitching rotations a month into the MLB season.
- Several teams currently above .500 are facing questions about sustainability due to pitching inconsistencies and regression risks in key performers.
- While young talent and surprising contributions have fueled early success for these teams, long-term contention hinges on overcoming pitching depth issues and avoiding statistical corrections.
Very little is set in stone a month into the MLB season. We are in a period of small sample sizes and statistical noise. A lot of struggling teams will turn it around. A lot of winning teams, meanwhile, will come back down to earth.
Let's dive into five MLB teams exceeding expectations in the early going to determine which are believeable contenders and which are destined for a letdown:
Pittsburgh Pirates (16-13): Buy
We all sort of expected the Pittsburgh Pirates to take a step forward this season, but there's something special brewing in the Steel City. Oneil Cruz will probably regress given his alarming strikeout numbers, but he's a real 30-30 threat in the heart of the order. Brandon Lowe's swing is so, so smooth right now. Konnor Griffin, who just hit his first MLB homer on his 20th birthday, is starting to put the pieces together.
This Pirates lineup was a complete joke a year ago. Pittsburgh didn't land the Kyle Schwarber-sized big fish it wanted in free agency, but the front office doubled down and landed several impact contributors. If Griffin takes off as expected, that should hopefully offset any future downturn from Cruz. And if the Buccos' pitchers continue to axe opposing lineups on a nightly basis, any offensive quibbles become secondary.
In short: the Pirates are the real deal. Paul Skenes leads the best rotation in baseball right now and Jared Jones is about to start his rehab stint in the Minors. The lineup has real potency. There's no reason to think Pittsburgh can't claim a Wild Card spot, maybe even the NL Central crown outright.
St. Louis Cardinals (15-13): Sell
The St. Louis Cardinals came into this season with very low expectations. Chaim Bloom is the king of the MLB rebuild, the master of farm systems, and all of the Cards' offseason moves pointed at a desire to get younger and refocus on the future. St. Louis gave away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado. True staples of the organization. And yet, as things sit, the Cardinals are above .500 and within three games of the first-place Reds.
There is something real behind what the Cards are doing. Jordan Walker has made an incredible leap. Alec Burleson is a whole heck of a lot better than he gets credit for in national circles. Iván Herrera and JJ Wetherholt only swing at good pitches. The top of St. Louis' order can hang with anybody right now, and a lot of their marginal pieces are contributing far above expectations.
Unfortunately, that last bit probably won't last. The Cardinals cannot bank on Nathan Church and Pedro Pagés to prop up the tail end of the lineup all season. Plus, while St. Louis' bullpen looks sharp — headlined by a lights-out RIley O'Brien — their rotation isn't very strong. Matthew Liberatoire is not a real headliner for a contender and Michael McGreevy, though he's off to a promising start, is one of the clearer regression candidates in MLB. Their pitching will put them underwater eventually.
Tampa Bay Rays (17-11): Sell
The Tampa Bay Rays are one of four American League teams above .500 with within 1.5 games of the first-place Yankees. We know Tampa's front office can find value on the margins better than almost any other in MLB. The Rays moved off of Brandon Lowe and Shane Baz this winter, but found serviceable replacements on the cheap. This team deserves a ton of flowers.
That said, it would be shocking if the Rays finish out the year second in the AL East. The Blue Jays, Red Sox and Orioles are all stinking it up to varying degrees right now, but part of Tampa Bay's calculus, unfortunately, is operating at a talent deficit. While there are real strengths to the roster, the collective simply is not strong enough to maintain their current pace.
Yandy Díaz is a steady presence in the heart of the order, but there's a decent chance he's on the trade block in a couple months as a veteran on an expiring contract. Chandler Simpson came out of the gate hot, and his quickess and center field defense will continue to yield positive value. That said, the bat is already cooling off to a concerning degree. The bullpen is a mess without Pete Fairbanks, as Griffin Jax and Bryan Baker look like shells of their usual selves. Shane McClanahan has settled in nicely after an extended absence, but beyond him and Drew Rasmussen (with Ryan Pepiot on the IL), but the depth of the Rays' rotation feels feeble.
Cincinnati Reds (18-10): Buy
The Cincinnati Reds are leading the pack in a highly competitive NL Central, with all five teams playing above-.500 baseball at the moment. That won't hold, but aside from the aforementioned Cardinals, none of these teams feel like imminent pretenders. Chicago and Milwaukee are probably the true heavyweights at the end of the day, but Pittsburgh's quite well-rounded and the Reds were in the playoffs five months ago.
Cincinnati has two foundational, breakthrough stars in Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart. The former has been due for an MVP-caliber explosion for years. The latter is only a rookie, but he's doing everything right at the plate. Nathaniel Lowe is on a heater in place of the injured Eugenio Suárez. That probably won't hold, but Suárez is due back soon and he's a 40-home run threat most years.
As the rest of the Reds' bats start to wake up, the crux of the issue — the hinge upon which this buy-sell decision rests — is Cincy's rotation. Andrew Abbott was an All-Star last season. He finished eighth in NL Cy Young voting. He's getting absolutely hammered right now. Assuming he can turn it around, the Reds have a couple up-and-coming aces in Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns, with Hunter Greene slated for a midseason return. Pitching, the Reds' greatest strength, hasn't even been a strength yet. Once that switch flips, Cincy could surprise some folks.
Athletics (15-13): Sell
The A's are currently the only AL West club with an above-.500 record. It's so easy to believe in the A's, despite the Minor League ballpark, the hilarious-but-sad Sacramento jerseys and the overwhelming evidence that owner John Fisher does not know how to run a successful team. The volume of genuinely exciting young talent in the A's lineup right now deserves your full attention.
Nick Kurtz has quickly dug himself out of an early-season slump. He's back to yanking 450-foot bombs over the right field fence. Shea Langeliers, meanwhile, has snatched the 'best catcher' crown from Cal Raleigh in an unexpected (but honestly very telegraphed) twist. Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom have bright futures, with both locked up on long-term extensions. Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler are stuck in slumps that will surely end, while Carlos Cortes — your reigning AL Player of the Week — might be the hottest bat in baseball right now.
The A's will continue to put runs on the board. Unfortunately, their pitching staff exudes Mickey Mouse energy. Luis Severino still looks miserable. JT Ginn and Aaron Civale are outperforming their metrics in unsustainable ways. Jeffrey Springs deserves credit as a real breakout, but until the A's can put more experienced, dependable arms on the mound every day, it will be difficult to fully buy this team as a contender. The rest of the AL West (especially the Mariners) will wake up eventually.
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