Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- A hot start can go cold in a minute if bullpens, health and unexpected power surges don't hold up for these surprisingly frisky MLB teams.
- Tampa Bay leads a fiercely competitive AL division but faces bullpen reliability issues that could undermine late-game leads.
- Arizona's rotation and lineup are exceeding expectations early, but a mounting injury list threatens to derail their playoff aspirations.
We are roughly a month into a grueling 162-game season, which means the MLB standings are a bit misleading. So often, we see teams surge out of the gate, only to bump up against their own, obvious limitations down the road.
For these early-season success stories, the other shoe is destined to drop at some point. Here's what could hold them back:
Tampa Bay Rays: Bullpen
The Rays lead MLB's most competitive division here in the early going and frankly, Tampa deserves a lot of credit. It was easy enough to write off the Rays after last season — there's so much hype and pressure around the New York, Boston and Toronto triumverate. But just like Baltimore is a sneaky threat, it's not totally inconceivable that Tampa could compete for a Wild Card spot. Maybe even the division crown.
That said, dubbing the Rays a serious World Series threat is probably a bridge too far. The lineup is better than folks realize, but Yandy DÃaz probably won't hit at an MVP level all year. Richie Palacios, Nick Forte and other bit players with also cool down, while Chandler Simpson's awesome early-season production — .348 average with seven stolen bases — will eventually fade.
Tampa has a real offense, though. The concerns pop up more in the bullpen, which ranks 13th in ERA in the American League so far. The loss of Pete Fairbanks will be deeply felt. Tampa's rotation is healthier than it's been in a while, but their bullpen simply lacks the high-leverage bullets to feel comfortable with narrow leads late in games. Moreover, if the Steven Matz-Nick Gonzalez corner of the rotation wanes even a little bit (and it will), those bullpen shortcomings will only become more critical. Essentially, beyond Griffin Jax, it's hard to know which Tampa relievers are trustworthy.
Minnesota Twins: Rotation depth
The Twins are easily the most pleasant surprise of the early season. The general averageness of the AL Central, with Cleveland and Detroit both fallible, means we could see Minnesota hit its way into October. That lineup is definitely overperforming, but the Twins found real depth on the cheap this offseason. Once Byron Buxton ascends to his usual star heights, Minnesota's production will feel replicable and sustainable.
That said, it's hard to imagine the Twins going the distance, in large part due to rotation depth. Pablo López's season-long absence is a back breaker. Joe Ryan hasn't been quite as sharp as usual in the early going, either. There's a lot of confidence in Taj Bradley and Mick Abel, two early-20s risers whose breakouts feel real enough. But even if you can fully trust Bradley and Abel come September and October, who is that dependable fourth Minnesota starter?
Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson are much too volatile. Top prospect Connor Prielipp could crack the Majors at some point, but the Twins really just lack the proven bullets on the mound. Abel and Bradley, both of whom have a history of control issues, aren't exactly guaranteed All-Stars either. We ought to temper expectations less than 20 games into the season.
Athletics: Swing and miss
I've made it my business to believe, in my heart of hearts, that the A's could be a real sleeper this season. The AL West is an absolute mess, so the door is most certainly open. The A's are imperfect, but there's so much talent — so much breakout potential — that a division crown and even a home series in the playoffs is within reach.
That said, the early returns on this A's squad are not overwhelmingly impressive. Yes, the A's are squeaking out wins in a weak division, but it's damn near impossible to trust their rotation. Especially in a Minor League ballpark that tends to favor offense. Meanwhile, the real concern with the A's, at least when it comes to reaching their competitive ceiling, is how volatile the offense is.
Sacramento — I guess we can officially call them "Sacramento"? — is MLB's 24th-ranked team in OPS and 27th in strikeouts. The A's were supposed to out-muscle opponents at the plate, and to an extent, that'll happen. Shea Langeliers already has six dingers under his belt. Max Muncy is flashing breakout potential. But on the other hand, Nick Kurtz's 37.0 percent strikeout rate feels untenable, even after his dominant rookie campaign. On the flip side, Jacob Wilson's swing-at-everything approach has yielded diminishing returns thus far. This A's lineup goes way too cold way too often. Such is life with a young team, perhaps.
St. Louis Cardinals: Rotation
Don't look now, but the Cardinals are right in the thick of a heated NL Central race. We were all ready to write off St. Louis as a rebuilding team, but Jordan Walker's superstar turn — which feels extremely believable right now — combined with JJ Wetherholt's early Rookie of the Year candidacy has the Cardinals feeling like a Real Baseball Team. It's one of the better early storylines this season.
That said, even if the Cards can hit enough to keep up in a crowded division, their pitching is going to bite them in the you-know-what eventually. This St. Louis rotation, top to bottom, is impossible to trust. Matthew Liberatore continues to get absolutely hammered despite a wealth of pitches on his tool belt. The Dustin May signing was the most predictable flop of all time. Michael McGreevy seems to be enjoying a breakout on the surface, but he's outperforming his metrics so transparently — an expected ERA of 7.49 — that the comedown is only a matter of time.
St. Louis simply has zero juice in its rotation. The Cardinals are designed to pitch to contact, but their so-called "aces" lack the necessary precision of command necessary to succeed without punch-out stuff. The Cardinals' pitching will be their undoing sooner than later.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Health
The Diamondbacks' rotation is far exceeding expectations, even with Corbin Burnes potentially months away from his return. Zac Gallen looks more like himself than he did a year ago. Merrill Kelly made his way back from an early setback. Michael Soroka hasn't looked this sharp since his lone All-Star campaign all the way back in 2019.
That said, Arizona's rotation will probably regress eventually. Same for the lineup, which has made the most of dire circumstances injury-wise. The Diamondbacks are simply performing above their means right now. Jordan Lawlar and Pavin Smith are both on the 60-day IL. Lourdes Gurriel and Gabriel Moreno should be back soon, but the D'Backs are already in dangerous territory when it comes to the sheer volume of their injuries.
It's unclear if the Diamondbacks can earnestly stay afloat until Burnes gets back, and even then, it's impossible to know how much Burnes has left in the tank at this stage. Arizona is a fun early-season success story, but the NL West is a bloodbath and it feels like the Diamondbacks are once again on the wrong end of the luck spectrum. It's early, so that can change, but their success so far feels mirage-like in nature.
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