FanGraphs gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 99.6 percent chance to make it to the postseason. While that might sound insane based on a three-ish-week sample, this makes sense for a variety of reasons. The Dodgers are an MLB-best 13-4 on the year, they have one of the most talented rosters of all time, and they're coming off back-to-back World Series titles. If we're being honest, it'd be shocking if the Dodgers weren't the first team to clinch a postseason berth, let alone miss the postseason outright.
The Dodgers prediction makes sense, but with such a small sample of games that have been played, it only makes sense that FanGraphs would be off when evaluating some other teams. With that in mind, let's go over some teams whose postseason odds are too high, and others who have a better chance to get to October than they're given credit for.
MLB playoff odds: Dodgers lead way, Rockies have no shot
Team | Postseason Odds | Current Record |
|---|---|---|
New York Yankees | 80.1% | 9-8 |
Seattle Mariners | 72.9% | 8-10 |
Detroit Tigers | 58.5% | 8-9 |
Texas Rangers | 58.1% | 9-8 |
Baltimore Orioles | 50.4% | 9-8 |
Minnesota Twins | 47.1% | 11-8 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 40.5% | 7-9 |
Boston Red Sox | 36.5% | 7-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays | 35.4% | 9-7 |
Kansas City Royals | 34.7% | 7-10 |
Cleveland Guardians | 31.6% | 10-8 |
Athletics | 23.7% | 9-8 |
Houston Astros | 23.2% | 7-11 |
Los Angeles Angels | 7.1% | 9-9 |
Chicago White Sox | 0.3% | 6-11 |
I understand that New York Yankees fans have high expectations and freak out whenever any little thing goes wrong, but even at 9-8, this team is sitting in good shape. Making the postseason won't be an issue. It never is. Whether they can do any damage in October, though, remains to be seen. On the other end of the spectrum, while Noah Schultz has all kinds of upside and Munetaka Murakami has all kinds of power, their 0.3 percent odds feel about right.
Team | Postseason Odds | Current Record |
|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers | 99.6% | 13-4 |
Atlanta Braves | 81.5% | 11-7 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 68.5% | 8-9 |
New York Mets | 62.5% | 7-11 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.2% | 10-7 |
Chicago Cubs | 46.2% | 8-9 |
San Diego Padres | 42.6% | 11-6 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 38.4% | 10-8 |
Milwaukee Brewers | 38.1% | 8-8 |
San Francisco Giants | 21.1% | 6-11 |
Cincinnati Reds | 20.7% | 10-7 |
Miami Marlins | 10.0% | 9-9 |
St. Louis Cardinals | 9.6% | 9-8 |
Washington Nationals | 1.0% | 8-9 |
Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 6-11 |
The Dodgers lead the pack, but the Atlanta Braves have the second-highest postseason odds in the sport. This is a bit surprising, but given how well they've played despite a rash of injuries and early-season struggles from Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley, it wouldn't be shocking to see this team catch fire and win the NL East if they can get healthy. On the other side of the coin, it's definitely harsh to give the Colorado Rockies absolutely no shot to make the playoffs, but does anyone truly disagree?
Teams whose MLB playoff odds are too high
Minnesota Twins
- Postseason odds: 47.1 percent
- Why the Twins' odds are too high: Roster isn't talented enough
If the postseason bracket looked exactly like this when the season ends, the Minnesota Twins would be in as the American League's third Wild Card team. No disrespect to the Twins, but does anyone really believe this team, as constructed, is going to make the playoffs?
They've gotten off to a hot start and deserve praise. Ryan Jeffers continues to be underrated, Joe Ryan is the truth, and Taj Bradley has really impressed. What's most impressive is that Pablo Lopez is out for the year and guys like Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall haven't hit much yet, and the Twins are still holding the AL's best record. Playoffs, though? I can't get there.
While Bradley is exciting, is he going to sustain his ace-level production? Are veterans like Josh Bell and Trevor Larnach going to continue greatly outperforming expectations? Is this Jhoan Duran-less bullpen going to continue to be dominant late in games? I mean, the Twins have 14 holds and five saves with only one blown save.
Look - the Twins orchestrated one of the largest trade deadline sell-offs in recent memory last offseason, expecting to rebuild. They made no needle-moving moves this offseason. I'd expect them to trade Ryan and/or Buxton by the trade deadline before I expect them to be in the postseason race. Them proving me wrong would be incredibly fun, though.
New York Mets
- Postseason odds: 62.5 percent
- Why the Mets' odds are too high: Offensive concerns
The New York Mets are 7-11 on the year and are losers of seven straight, but you wouldn't know it based on their postseason odds. They have the fourth-highest odds in the NL and the sixth-highest in all of baseball. I'm a delusional Mets fan, but even I know that these odds are ridiculous for several reasons.
First, this offense is a problem. They've scored one run in their last three games and 10 runs in their seven-game losing streak. I know that Juan Soto is out, and I expect guys like Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette to get going, but I don't know if this team, as constructed, can do enough damage to score enough runs. Run prevention is improved, as David Stearns had hoped, but it's come at the expense of their offense, which has looked lifeless for much of the year.
Second, despite their favorable odds, the Mets only have the third-best odds in their own division. Is it really more likely that the Mets will make the postseason as the third-best team in their own division than a single NL Central team?
Maybe Soto can carry the Mets to October — he nearly did so last season. The Mets are going to need MVP-level production from him to get to the postseason in 2026.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Postseason odds: 60.2 percent
Why the Pirates' odds are too high: Poor roster construction
It'd be awesome to see the Pittsburgh Pirates make the playoffs for the first time since 2015. FanGraphs certainly thinks they have a good shot, giving them over 60 percent odds to get to the playoffs, the highest in the NL Central by over 10 percent. While I definitely think they'll be in the postseason discussion, I'm not this high on them.
There's a lot to like. Paul Skenes is the best pitcher in the National League, their rotation as a whole is quite good, Konnor Griffin will get going eventually, Oneil Cruz looks to have taken a major step forward offensively, and Brandon Lowe has been everything the Pirates could've hoped for. Still, there are roster construction issues that could hold this team back.
Defensively, the Pirates have Cruz and his propensity to make mistakes in center field, they have Ryan O'Hearn, a primary first baseman, in right field, and they have Lowe, arguably the worst defender at second base in the league, playing the keystone. Offensively, the Pirates are stacked with lefties, most of which have brutal track records against southpaws. Defense and hitting lefties can prove to be major issues for this team.
These concerns, coupled with some very talented teams that will get going, make it hard to be this confident in Pittsburgh getting to October.
Texas Rangers
- Postseason odds: 58.1 percent
- Why the Rangers' odds are too high: Injury concerns
Corey Seager, Nathan Eovaldi and Wyatt Langford haven't played their best out of the gate, yet the Texas Rangers are currently tied for first in the AL West and have a near 60 percent chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs. While I absolutely think they can get there, these odds are too high.
Injuries are why. When healthy, this team is supremely talented, but there are clear durability concerns. A rotation trio featuring Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and MacKenzie Gore is as good as it gets, but deGrom has thrown more than 100 innings once since 2019 (and has dealt with a couple of minor ailments this season already), and Eovaldi has made more than 25 starts once since 2021. Offensively, Corey Seager has played more than 130 games just once since 2019. Can all of these players stay healthy for a full season?
Even beyond those concerns, the Rangers' bullpen still lacks any sort of established closer, their rotation doesn't have a clear No. 5 starter, and while their offense can be better than it's been, we haven't seen guys like Joc Pederson and Josh Jung be productive in quite some time.
The Rangers can be scary if they can stay healthy and if they fill some roster holes, but there are too many ifs for my liking to be as high on them as FanGraphs is.
Teams whose MLB playoff odds are too low
Chicago Cubs
- Postseason odds: 46.2 percent
- Why the Cubs' odds are too low: Star players will get healthy and start performing
The Chicago Cubs were pretty heavy favorites to win the NL Central entering the year after they added Edward Cabrera and Alex Bregman while watching the Brewers regress, but apparently, after just 17 games, they've fallen to just a 46.2 percent chance to make the playoffs. Mind you, this team is only one game below .500 as of this writing.
The Cubs have been disappointing to start the year, obviously, but why should anyone expect that to continue? They're 8-9 despite injuries to Justin Steele, Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd, and despite stars like Bregman, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch providing next to nothing offensively. Horton won't be back this season, and I can understand if you don't think Crow-Armstrong will ever revert to All-Star form offensively, but there's simply too much talent here to overlook.
If the Cubs are essentially a .500 team when so many of their great players are either injured or underperforming, there's every reason to believe they'll be quite good once the weather warms up and they get their full complement of players playing as expected.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Postseason odds: 40.5 percent
- Why the Blue Jays' odds are too low: Injured players will return
The Toronto Blue Jays won the AL Pennant last season. Sure, they lost Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt in the offseason, but they replaced Bichette with Kazuma Okamoto and replaced Bassitt with Dylan Cease. They even improved their bullpen immensely by signing Tyler Rogers. Sure, they lost Bichette's offensive firepower, but improved defensively and improved a ton pitching-wise. Yet, after three injury-riddled weeks, the Blue Jays' postseason odds have plummeted to 40.5 percent.
The team that was just two outs shy of a World Series win in 2025, which might be even better now on paper, is projected to miss the postseason entirely right now. That, with all due respect, feels like an insane overreaction, especially since so many key players are injured.
They can field a legitimately solid starting rotation of injured players, with Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Jose Berrios, Cody Ponce and Bowden Francis part of it. Their bullpen is without Yimi Garcia, a key set-up man, Their lineup is missing George Springer, Addison Barger, Alejandro Kirk and Anthony Santander. It feels like there's been a new injury every day.
While Ponce, Santander and Francis likely won't play a role on the 2026 team, most of the guys who are out will be back in a matter of weeks. There's a good chance the Jays will be hovering around .500 when their roster gets healthy. Assuming there are no more annoying injuries, why can't this team take off once its whole?
The rotation is awesome, the lineup should be pesky, and the bullpen is improved. The recipe is there for the Jays to be really good. Even if they don't win the division, we shouldn't be expecting this team to miss the playoffs yet.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Postseason odds: 38.1 percent
- Why the Brewers' odds are too low: Track record speaks for itself
The Milwaukee Brewers have dropped six in a row to fall to 8-8 on the year. Despite them being 6-2 a week ago, one annoying losing streak in which they've uncharacteristically blown a couple of games they seemingly had secured, has dipped their postseason odds from 60.1 percent to under 40 percent. Is that not ridiculous?
I'd understand this dip for a team that hasn't proven anything, but the Brewers were MLB's best regular season team in 2025 and they've made the playoffs in seven of the last eight years. They haven't had much October success to speak of, but they've proven they can get there. They've won four of the last five NL Central titles despite being doubted in most, if not all of those years.
I expected this team to decline after trading Freddy Peralta and making no notable additions, but why, when they're 8-8, are they below a team like the Diamondbacks, for example? I don't know if they'll get back to the postseason, but it's way too early to be this low on a team that's consistently proven it can get the job done in the regular season.
Cincinnati Reds
- Postseason odds: 20.7 percent
- Why the Reds' odds are too low: Struggling stars will get going
The top of the NL Central features a tie between the Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds. Pittsburgh is being given a 60.2 percent chance to make the playoffs, while the Reds' odds sit at 20.7 percent. Let that sink in.
Teams with identical records have a near 40 percent difference in postseason odds, and the team with the better of the odds hasn't made the playoffs in over a decade while the underdogs made it just last season. Oh yeah, and while the Pirates certainly got better over the offseason, the Reds signed Eugenio Suarez.
Suarez hasn't gotten going, and the same can be said for this Reds offense that sits at the bottom of the National League in OPS. Pitching-wise, Hunter Greene is out until July, Nick Lodolo hasn't thrown a pitch yet either, and Andrew Abbott hasn't looked great. Despite all of these factors, they've found ways to win.
I don't mean to be overly critical of the Pirates, but the Reds deserve more respect. They've proven they can win games even when they're clearly not playing their best, and should be given more favorable odds than a 6-11 Giants team that has looked like a dumpster fire.
More MLB news and analysis:
Add us as a preferred source on Google