Who has the arms to win it all? Ranking every 2026 MLB rotation

As we embark another another 162-game odyssey known as the MLB regular season, every fanbase has renewed hope for what lies ahead. The World Series is the end goal, but it requires the right mix of talent and luck to run the gauntlet. Perhaps more important than anything is a deep, impactful starting rotation. Nothing guarantees a high floor quite like good pitching.

Some teams are better equipped than others in that department, of course. Let's dive into all 30 pitching staffs around the league, taking top-end talent, health and depth into account in an attempt to determine which team has the best rotation in baseball:

30. Colorado Rockies

The outlook:

Colorado has the worst rotation in baseball (again) and it's not particularly close. It does not help that half their games are played at Coors Field, which historically punishes even the best arms. Their offseason additions — Michael Lorenzen (34), Jose Quintana (37) and Tomoyuki Sugano (36) are all well past their primes. The latter gave up an American League-worst 33 home runs last season. Now he's pitching at high altitude, with thin air.

Kyle Freeland has been Colorado's Opening Day starter since time immemorial, but the 32-year-old is coming off a 4.98 ERA season. He's durable, which counts for something in the Rockies' situation, but man. This is all very bleak.

The X-factor:

Chase Dollander, Colorado's former No. 1 prospect, will begin the season in the bullpen, with hopes he can develop into the ace this rotation so desperately lacks. He finished his rookie campaign with a 6.52 ERA across 21 starts, but his road ERA (3.46) was far more palatable. He just gets hammered at Coors. If Collander can continue to pitch well on the road while limiting catastrophes at home, the Rockies may finally have something going for them on the mound.

29. Chicago White Sox

The outlook:

Shane Smith put together an excellent rookie season for the White Sox, pitching to a 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 146.1 innings. He earned Chicago's All-Star berth and, despite a bumpy spring, looks primed to emerge as the Southsiders' unquestioned top arm. Opponents hit .192 against his fastball and .200 against his changeup last season. If Smith can bolster his complementary pitches even a little bit, the White Sox may have their ace.

The rest of the rotation could use a bit of work. Newcomer Erick Fedde couldn't find much of anything left in the tank in 2025. Sean Burke and Davis Martin are capable innings-eaters on the right side of 30, but Chicago hardly has postseason-caliber depth right now. Anthony Kay has not pitched in an MLB game since 2023, but the 31-year-old southpaw finished with a 1.74 ERA across 155.1 innings in Japan's NPB last season. If he can translate even a fraction of that success to the Majors, Chicago optimistically has two bankable, frontline arms. Kay was sharp in spring training. So there's that, at least.

The X-factor:

Drew Thorpe missed all of last season to Tommy John surgery, but he's throwing bullpen sessions and slated for a 2026 return. The former top prospect, a centerpiece of the Dylan Cease trade, could meaningfully move the needle for a White Sox team with enough offensive firepower to start winning baseball games, so long as the rotation is supportive. Top prospect Noah Schultz needs more seasoning at Triple-A, but he's a potential midseason call-up with star potential.

28. Athletics

The outlook:

Luis Severino is a two-time All-Star, but it's been a while since the 32-year-old was at the top of his game. Last season was a slog, and he openly moped and complained about playing in a Minor League ballpark, which does not help. He's still a serviceable, proven veteran with a bit of cachet, but as the strongest arm for a team with postseason aspirations, he leaves much to be desired.

We know this A's lineup can put runs on the board, but their success will come down to whether or not the rotation can prevent enough runs. There are mild reasons for optimism, or at least not total pessimism. Jeffrey Springs pitched a career-high 171 innings last season, with a competent 4.11 ERA. Aaron Civale bombed as a starter with the Brewers and White Sox, but gave the Cubs 13 solid innings out of the bullpen down the stretch. He's only two years removed from a 3.46 ERA and 2.6 fWAR season in 2023. Jacob Lopez is better than plenty of fifth starters around the league. The A's aren't working with great options, but there may not be any disastrous options, which is a positive.

The X-factor:

Luis Morales, 23, was the A's No. 5 prospect a year ago. His first 10 appearances (nine starts) were awfully promising, with a 3.14 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 48.2 innings. His fastball sits in the high-90s; the sweeper and changeup are legitimate offerings. He struggled in spring, but there's hope for a year two breakout.

27. Washington Nationals

The outlook:

The pros: three of Washington's five starters made 30-plus starts last season. Foster Griffin has not pitched in an MLB game since 2022, but the lefty put up a 1.52 ERA in 89.0 innings in Japan last season. Cade Cavalli, meanwhile, missed all of 2023 and 2024 due to complications resulting from elbow surgery, but he looked functional (4.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP) in 10 starts last season. Now he's coming off of 14 innings without an earned run allowed in spring training, with his fastball touching 100. Still only 27, Cavalli feels like one of the prime breakout candidates this season.

The cons: the Nationals are counting on 37-year-old Miles Mikolas in a real way, which is not exactly a proven strategy these days (his last sub-4.00 ERA season was 2022). Mikolas continues to pile up innings, which is a strength in and of itself, but he's a real weak point in the rotation. Jake Irvin, meanwhile, led the NL in losses in 2024. Then he led the league in home runs allowed (38) and runs allowed (114) in 2025, which is not great. Like Mikolas, you can depend on him to take the mound every fifth outing, but the Nationals won't overpower opponents. Zack Littell was a nice pick-up in free agency, but Washington really needs Cavalli to over-deliver after a two-year hiatus.

The X-factor:

Health. Josiah Gray and DJ Herz are both expected back from year-plus absences this season, but the former will miss at least two months with a flexor strain after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024 and missing almost two full seasons. Plus, with Cavalli, all the excitement is underscored by uncertainty. We just don't know, truly, what we can expect health-wise (or production-wise) over the course of a 162-game season at this point.

26. Los Angeles Angels

The outlook:

Sinkerballer José Soriano will start Opening Day for the Angels after pitching the most innings of his career in 2025, but also producing the least consistent results. He's in the 100th percentile for groundball rate, but he also has a tendency to give up loud contact — he led the AL in home runs per inning (0.6) last season. He's a talented but volatile top arm, with 34-year-old southpaw Yusei Kikuchi feeling a bit out of place as the No. 2 starter. He was so good for Houston down the stretch in 2024, and he has four straight seasons of 32-plus starts, which is awesome. But he's stuck eating innings for a bad team.

Reid Detmers spent last season in the bullpen after a couple wayward years as a starter. Now he's attempting to flip the switch back. Josh Kochanowicz was quite poor in his first full(ish) campaign with the Angels (6.81 ERA across 111 innings), but he's only 25, with a deceptive release and high-90s heat that can produce groundballs. He looked good in spring, for the most part. Here's to hoping he can find his stride.

The X-factor:

The ceiling for this Angels rotation depends heavily on Grayson Rodriguez's recovery. Los Angeles acquired Rodriguez with four years of club control for the expiring contract of Taylor Ward, which felt like a savvy move at the time. But he missed all of 2025 with shoulder and elbow problems, and now he's beginning 2026 on the IL with dead arm. Last time we say Rodriguez, he made 20 starts in 2023 with a 3.86 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 116.2 innings. He's talented and, at 26, still young. The Angels need him to get right.

25. St. Louis Cardinals

The outlook:

The Cardinals are finally embracing the youth movement, which extends to a pitching staff worth getting moderately excited about. Both Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy were nails in spring training. Dustin May, though not exactly a name with much excitement around it, looked sharper than ever too. There's a difference between exhibition and regular season baseball, of course, but there's finally some direction and purpose to St. Louis' roster-building.

That does not mean this is a good rotation. Andre Pallante, also great this spring, posted a negative fWAR in his first campaign as a full-time starter. Kyle Leahy was excellent out of the bullpen last season, with a mean slider and curveball playing off his mid-90s heater, but can he nail the transition to starter? That much remains to be seen.

The X-factor:

Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts both arrived in separate offseason trades with Boston. The Cardinals also acquired top-100 prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje from Seattle in the Brendan Donovan deal. For the first time in a while, it feels like the St. Louis pitching pipeline has real depth and real potential. Dobbins is still recovering from an ACL tear, but he should be back within a couple months. If St. Louis can hit on a couple younger arms, Chaim Bloom's tenure as president of baseball ops will be off to a great start.

24. Miami Marlins

The outlook:

Sandy Alcántara made his return from Tommy John surgery last season and pitched 174.2 innings, finishing better than he started. That much is encouraging from a former Cy Young winner and two-time All-Star. But his 5.36 ERA and errant command is hard to ignore. The Marlins still haven't traded Alcántara, somehow, but expcting him to finish out this season in a Miami uniform — and to do so while pitching at a high level — is probably fantasy.

Chris Paddack was signed to eat innings, essentially. Max Meyer is a former top prospect who can mix speeds and locations in a compelling way, but at 27, that "top prospect" glow (and leeway) has worn off. Janson Junk beat out lefty Braxton Garrett for the fifth spot, but neither is overly exciting. The real source of optimism for Miami, beyond hopes for an Alcántara resurgence, is Eury Pérez. The 22-year-old struggled in his comeback from elbow surgery last season, but he was electric in spring and a full-fledged star ascension feels possible, maybe even inevitable.

The X-factor:

Beyond Alcántara and Pérez taking necessary steps forward, Miami fans will be focused on the development of their top-two prospects — southpaws Thomas White and Robbie Snelling — in Triple-A. Neither was able to show much in spring training, but both contain significant upside and could move the needle substantially midseason for a Marlins team with enough offense to potentially compete for a Wild Card spot, if all breaks right.

23. San Diego Padres

The outlook:

San Diego entered free agency with one hand tied behind its back financially, yet still managed to re-sign Michael King at a healthy sum. That's a major boon for an otherwise thin, injury-ravaged rotation. The top-two of Nick Pivetta and King is quite strong; Pivetta put up a 2.87 ERA and 190 strikeouts last season, which earned a sixth-place finish in Cy Young voting. That success might not be entirely replicable, but he's rock-solid.

The rest of the Padres rotation is a mess. Yu Darvish is out for the season. Matt Waldron will miss significant time with an infected hemorrhoid. Griffin Canning could return as soon as April from his torn Achilles, but Joe Musgrove is behind the eight ball in his Tommy John recovery after missing all of 2025. There's talent, but how available and reliable that talent is remains to be seen. Expect to see more of Germán Márquez and Walker Buehler early in the season than any Padres fan is comfortable with.

The X-factor:

Depth and health. As the Padres get bodies back, this rotation has a chance to round out nicely and do enough to set up one of the best bullpens in baseball. If San Diego can't get ahead of the injury bug, however, this season could go sideways faster than it ought to for such a talented roster. AJ Preller is always aggressive, but the Padres are working with a paper-thin farm system and minimal trade ammo. The only real Minor League arm with MLB stuff to begin the year is J.P. Sears, who struggled with the MLB squad last season after coming over in the Mason Miller trade.

22. Minnesota Twins

The outlook:

A season-ending Pablo López injury cuts the head off the snake and leaves Minnesota's rotation on shaky ground. Joe Ryan will be the headliner now, after months of trade speculation, with a chance to bolster his reputation and either cement his home in Minnesota or boost his value ahead of the deadline. Either way, Minnesota is working with spare parts behind him. The front office claims to want to compete, but after last summer's fire sale, it's hard to believe them.

Bailey Ober will attempt to rebound from a shoddy 2025 campaign, in which he posted an uncharacteristic 5.10 ERA and saw his strikeout rate plummet roughly seven percent. Ober is a commanding presence and he locates his pitches, so there's hope. Beyond that, the Twins are banking on continued development from younger arms. Simeon Woods Richardson underperformed his metrics last season, which is encouraging. Taj Bradley has electric stuff, but he's still trying to put it all together. Mick Abel was lights-out in spring training and is a sleeper breakout candidate this season. Minnesota's rotation could outperform this ranking, but it will require a lot of positive breaks.

The X-factor:

Is Mick Abel an ace hiding in plain sight? Abel was once a highly touted high school arm, drafted 15th by the Phillies out of high school in 2020. He went through a rough patch, but really found his stride last season and earned a brief MLB call-up before being flipped to Minnesota in the Jhoan Durán trade. His metrics this spring were off the charts. If he can take The Leap, the Twins will start to feel real feisty.

21. Baltimore Orioles

The outlook:

It's unfair to say Trevor Rogers, a former All-Star in 2021, came out of nowhere, but last season was a real "oh s**t" moment, as the lefty produced a 1.81 ERA and 0.903 WHIP across 18 starts, good enough to finish ninth in Cy Young voting despite playing just over half the season. He earned the Opening Day nod, with a (hopefully) healthy Kyle Bradish back to give the O's a real one-two punch — something that's been missing from Baltimore's rotation for years.

The Shane Baz trade infuses the rotation with a bit of upside, as his numbers dramatically improved away from Tampa's temporary home of Steinbrenner Field last season. Chris Bassitt is getting up there in years, but his loopy curveballs and skillful mishmash of off-speed pitches still plays. He's also incredibly durable, which is helpful for a team with recent injury history. Zach Eflin was awful in 2025, but quite good in '23 and '24. Banking on a return to form, at a cheap rate, is not bad for business. Dean Kremer and Cade Povich provide depth from the Minors with MLB experience, so the O's are sitting prettier than normal, even if there isn't a true, grade-A ace leading the way.

The X-factor:

Which Trevor Rogers are the O's getting this season? Last season's numbers weren't necessarily a mirage, but that level of production simply isn't sustainable. He was also dramatically outperforming his metrics (3.41 xERA). The metrics were still great, to be clear, and there's ample evidence to support optimism in Rogers this season. But it's been a while since he was this healthy and this consistent on the bump. Baltimore fans might want to hedge their bets a wee bit.

20. San Francisco Giants

The outlook:

Logan Webb is San Francisco's ironman and one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball. He has led the National League in starts and innings for two years running and he led the league in strikeouts in 2025. That gives the Giants an excellent foundation, but the rest of their rotation — depending on your confidence level in 34-year-old Robbie Ray — is held together by Elmer's glue and paper clips.

The Giants were the borderline favorites to land Framber Valdez or another big ace in free agency. In the end, it was Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser. Both performed well in injury-shortened 2025 campaigns, but both also outperformed their metrics in a not entirely believeable way. Landon Roupp is a promising back-end starter, but nothing much more. San Francisco has intriguing arms coming up through the pipeline, such as Carson Whisenhunt and Blake Tidwell, but it's hard to fully trust anyone not named Logan Webb right now.

The X-factor:

After a couple injury-plagued seasons, Robbie Ray pitched 182.1 innings last season and made his second All-Star team — eight years after his first. Entering his mid-30s, it's fair to wonder how durable and consistent Ray can be. He gave up his share of loud, hard contact last season. His slider, once a premium weapon, is now a middling secondary pitch. The Giants need Ray to be a legitimate No. 2 to Webb; can he keep it up?

19. Houston Astros

The outlook:

Hunter Brown shed his cocoon and blossomed into a real-deal ace for the Astros last season, with a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts to support a third-place Cy Young finish. Houston needn't worry about him, but the rest of their rotation is riddled with question marks at the moment. That's not to say a few things can't or won't break right, as the Astros are certainly talented enough to compete in the American League. There are just a few uncertainties that need to be ironed out.

Cristian Javier was electric during Houston's World Series run a few years ago and he has looked the part of a legitimate No. 2 or 3 ace in years past, but he spent the majority of 2024 and 2025 on ice. He's only 28 and he pitched well in spring, but it's unclear how thoroughly Houston can trust him. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are both recovering from Tommy John surgery; Blanco is out for the year probably and Wesneski won't return until after the All-Star break. Tatsuya Imai is a major talent, but the transition from Japan to the States can be tricky and there are longstanding durability questions. Mike Burrows is a strong breakout candidate with a nifty changeup, but we haven't seen it click for a full MLB season yet.

The X-factor:

Houston needs to stay healthy, same as every other wannabe contender. The real swing factor, however, is probably Imai. The 27-year-old won awards in Japan, with a 1.92 ERA across 163.2 innings last season. He was expected to land a massive nine-figure deal in the offseason, but the market chilled and he ended up on a risk-averse $54 million deal in Houston, with the Astros initially wondering if he was even a full-blown starter. There's a world in which that's the steal of the offseason and Imai is Houston's second All-Star behind Brown. There's also a world in which he struggles out of the gate and suddenly Houston is even thinner than expected.

18. Tampa Bay Rays

The outlook:

A couple smart buy-low additions in free agency, plus the return of Shane McClanahan after his two-year injury odyssey, plus a return to Tropicana Field and an actual MLB stadium, all points in a positive direction for this Rays staff. Drew Rasmussen will handle the Opening Day start, coming off his best season in the Majors to date (2.76 ERA across 150 innings). Ryan Pepiot will begin the season on the IL, but it shouldn't be too long an absence and he has established himself as a legitimate front-end guy.

Steven Matz came out of the bullpen for St. Louis and Boston last season and was plenty effective, but it will be interesting to monitor how the veteran fares in a return to starting duties. Nick Martinez also tends to split time between the rotation and the bullpen, a somewhat stretchy and versatile piece, but he's solid as an end-of-rotation option. Joe Boyle will start the season in the rotation as Pepiot's replacement; the 26-year-old was a negative fWAR pitcher the last couple years, but there's some stuff there. A solid spring, with 16 strikeouts in 9.2 innings, establishes hope for a breakthrough.

The X-factor:

What exactly are the Rays getting from Shane McClanahan this season? He was a back-to-back All-Star before his initial elbow injury and a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2022, but it's hard to project with confidence after such a long and complicated layoff. He looked plenty sharp in spring training, though, and the vibes are extremely positive right now. If McClanahan is back in ace form, we might want to bump the Rays up a few more spots, honestly.

17. Arizona Diamondbacks

The outlook:

The Diamondbacks went into last season expecting their rotation to be a strength and it wound up as a massive weakness. Injuries ruled the day, with the most consequential being Corbin Burnes' season-ending elbow surgery. It didn't help that Zac Gallen completely fell apart. Arizona managed to re-sign Gallen this winter and bring back Merrill Kelly, who was dealt to Texas at the 2025 trade deadline. Gallen in particular was a surprise, but there just wasn't a long-term market for him after that dreadful campaign.

Arizona will begin the 2026 campaign with real depth, a major development. Whether the top of the rotation is strong enough to support contention, however, remains to be seen. Burnes won't be back until around the All-Star break. Now, Kelly is on the IL to begin the year with a back problem. It shouldn't take long for Kelly to return, but he's getting up there is years — as is Burnes, who was already showing troubling signs of decline before the injury. Extra bullets from Brandon Pfaadt, Joe Ross and Michael Soroka should help Arizona navigate turbulence, in a perfect world.

The X-factor:

What exactly are the Diamondbacks getting from Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez, in particular? The ceiling on most of their "core" arms is fairly high, but Gallen (4.83) and Rodriguez (5.02) both posted inflated ERAs last season. These are recognizable names with rich histories, but neither has looked like a proper ace, or really even a bankable mid-rotation arm, in a while. Gallen started to find his groove a bit toward the end of last season and he's a stronger bet to turn things around in 2026, but the D'Backs need their on-paper heavyweights to live up to their billing.

16. Milwaukee Brewers

The outlook:

Talent-wise, Milwaukee probably doesn't belong this high. But the Brewers, without fail, find a way to maximize their arms each and every season, with a stellar developmental program and a manager who knows how to play to specific matchups. This year, with Freddy Peralta out the door, all eyes turn to Jacob Misiorowski. He became the fastest All-Star in MLB history last season. That was not necessarily "deserved," but it speaks to how impressive he was out of the gate and just how high expectations are moving forward. If the spindly right-hander can lock in his command on top of his elite velocity and a deceptive delivery, the Brewers have their ace for the foreseeable future.

There are more questions beyond The Miz, but Milwaukee can feel good about Quinn Priester, slated for an early May season debut, who really put it together last season. Brandon Woodruff is hopefully healthy; he has the longest track record of the Brewers' current arms and almost always dominates when he's right. Chad Patrick found great success as a rookie alternating between a mid-80s cutter and an effective sinker. Brandon Sproat, the main prize of the Peralta trade, struggled in brief exposure with the Mets last season, but he's a top-100 prospect with a rock-solid sinker and a sweeper can he spin into the dirt to great effect.

The X-factor:

Kyle Harrison split last season between San Francisco and Boston as part of the Rafael Devers trade, but he never caught on in either location. He's been trying to crack a regular Major League role for a few years now with little success, but Milwaukee acquired him in the Caleb Durbin trade this offseason — a move that shocked and confused a lot of folks. Clearly the Brewers see something in Harrison, though, and if he can follow the Priester path to success in Milwaukee's pitching haven, the Brewers will be in a great spot.

15. Atlanta Braves

The outlook:

Atlanta would rank much, much higher than this at 100 percent health. But when's the last time the Braves' rotation operated at full capacity? The injury bug shows no sign of relenting ahead of the 2026 campaign, with Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Strider all on the IL to begin the year (with AJ Smith-Shawver a holdover from 2025's IL and depth option Joey Wentz done for the season with a torn ACL).

Strider should be back sooner than later, but his injury ledger is stacking higher and higher. Schwellenbach and Waldrep, Atlanta's brightest young arms, are both expected to return from elbow issues midseason, but the timelines are murky. Chris Sale is the one truly dependable ace, but he's almost 37 with his own history of injuries, so it's not like the Braves can put absolute faith in him. Their deep pipeline of young arms, with top prospects Didier Fuentes and J.R. Ritchie knocking on the door, helps keep the Braves respectable in these rankings, but there's a lot of duct tape patching this thing together.

The X-factor:

Are Spencer Strider and Reynaldo López okay? Strider's velo stayed down throughout spring training. The Braves claim it's a natural ramp-up and the oblique injury he's dealing with now is, thankfully, unrelated. Last season was a real stinker, though, at least by his standards. López was effectively down for the count in 2025 after an All-Star, career-best 2024 campaign. His fastball sat below 90 in his final spring training start. At 32, and without the most robust résumé, it's unclear what the Braves can expect from him either. Is Atlanta getting a couple All-Stars or a couple mid-tier rotation cogs? That could make or break their season.

14. Cleveland Guardians

The outlook:

Cleveland has an excellent one-two punch in Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams. Bibee underperformed his metrics last season, but he weaponizes a deep arsenal of pitches with gnarly spin to generate soft contact. Williams, meanwhile, took the ace leap in 2025, with a 3.06 ERA and 173 strikeouts through 167.2 innings. He was exceptional in Cleveland's lone playoff series. He needs to tighten the command still, but Williams is damn near unhittable when he's locating that fastball-curveball combo.

The Guardians have a pair of young lefties with breakout potential in Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick, both of whom thrived in limited exposure last season. Slade Cecconi is a classic innings-eater: nothing special, but he can limit damage with tight command and do enough to get buy as a back-end starter. Logan Allen also gave the Guards 113 solid innings last season, and he's a call away in the Minors.

The X-factor:

Just how good is Parker Messick? He is Cleveland's top pitching prospect and, given the front office's standard lack of external investment, their best chance at developing a legitimate No. 3 option behind Bibee and Williams come October. Messick's arsenal is not the deepest or the most explosive, but his changeup is a major out pitch that plays beautifully off his heat. Cleveland develops internally better than most clubs, so if Messick can take a leap, Guardians fans can still to feel good about their season-long outlook.

13. Texas Rangers

The outlook:

A groin injury and a season-ending rotator cuff tear capped Nathan Eovaldi at 22 starts last season, but he ranked among the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. His 1.73 ERA led all arms with at least 100 innings pitched. Jacob deGrom, meanwhile, pushed strong past his 37th birthday with a 2.97 ERA and 0.92 WHIP through 172.2 innings. Both are on their last legs, at least in theory, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a better one-two punch in 2025. Texas will hope that carries into the new year.

Even if it doesn't entirely carry over, the Rangers added reinforcements this offseason, primarily with a blockbuster trade for All-Star southpaw MacKenzie Gore. Command was an issue for Gore, but he has some of the best strikeout stuff out there. Jack Leiter posted a sub-4.00 ERA in his first full MLB season and looks the part of a solid back-end rotation piece. Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bradford are both in the late stages of Tommy John rehab and should pitch this season, giving the Rangers a bit of depth. The former was lights-out for Texas during its 2023 World Series run.

The X-factor:

Kumar Rocker earned the fifth spot in Texas' rotation out of the gate. The 26-year-old struggled to a 5.74 ERA in 14 starts last season, but he was the Rangers' top-ranked pitching prospect a year ago. He can mix in five or six pitches, with a sinker that produces a healthy dose of groundball contact to set up a defense. The Rangers are going out on a limb, showing faith in Rocker after an unflashy, but not disastrous spring. If he can lock in, Texas will have a compelling mix of sage veteran aces and promising young talent.

12. Cincinnati Reds

The outlook:

When healthy, this Reds rotation stacks up with the best in baseball. The issue? Cincinnati is not healthy right now. Ace Hunter Greene is expected to miss roughly half the season after undergoing a cleanup procedure on his throwing elbow. Lefty Nick Lodolo, coming off his best MLB season to date, will also begin the campaign on the IL with a blister, although he should be back in a couple weeks. Greene's absence in particular kneecaps Cincy out of the gate, but if the Reds can keep their heads above water until his return, this rotation has scary upside come October.

Andrew Abbott will step into the primary ace role for now, and he's up to the task. The 26-year-old put up a 2.87 ERA across 166.1 innings last season and he's just coming into his stardom. Cincinnati will also welcome back Ben Williamson from a yearlong absence for depth purposes, but the young arms the Reds will truly count on are Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns — two top prospects who will get a chance to carve out regular roles this season. Lowder missed all of 2025, but he put up 1.17 ERA over six starts in 2024, an explosive debut. Burns was Cincy's top prospect a year ago. He struggled in limited MLB exposure as a rookie, but he has four plus pitches and touches 102 with his fastball. Once the command locks in, there's ace potential. Don't forget Chase Petty, Jose Franco and the Reds' other talented pitching prospects, either.

The X-factor:

The Reds really need Greene to get healthy. The lineup should improve with Eugenio Suárez back in the mix and perhaps a leap from Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, but this is not a team built to win on offense. Cincy's pitching led them to a surprise Wild Card berth in 2025. Greene was limited to 19 starts because of injury, with a 2.76 ERA with 132 strikeouts in 107.2 innings speaks plenty to his talent. Also, duh, but if Lowder and Burns can reach anywhere close to their ceiling, this ranking will look far too low in hindsight.

11. Kansas City Royals

The outlook:

Last season was a mild stinker for Cole Ragans on the surface. Limited to 13 starts, the talented lefty put up a 4.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The numbers below the hood were far better, though, with a 2.67 expected ERA and an elite 38.1 percent strikeout rate. A year removed from a fourth-place Cy Young finish, there's no reason to fade Kansas City's ace. Meanwhile, Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron both finished with sub-3.00 ERAs last season in 20-plus starts. Michael Wacha is a soft contact machine who can stabilize the middle of the rotation. Seth Lugo is a year removed from finishing second in Cy Young voting.

This Royals rotation is rock solid. Cameron is due for a bit of regression, but the 26-year-old can mix speeds and limit damage with soft contact. Bailey Falter will start the season out of the bullpen, but he made 24 starts between Pittsburgh and Kansas City last year. He's not a heavy strikeout guy, but he's serviceable enough as the emergency option. Top prospects Luinder Avila and Ben Kudrna are knocking on the door. Mitch Spence, recently optioned to the Minors, has MLB experience. Alec Marsh could return midseason from a shoulder impingement. The Royals have talent and depth on their side, if all breaks right.

The X-factor:

Kansas City inked Seth Lugo to a cushy two-year, $46 million extension that runs through his age-37 season, with a conditional club option for 2028. Lugo began last season on a tear, but his metrics were in the dumpster and it eventually caught up to him. His ERA ballooned to 6.35 over his final 11 starts in July and August. Lugo has never been a power arm, preferring to mix speeds and locations with one of the deepest arsenals in MLB. He was sharp enough in a couple brief spring outings, but there's real concern about how Lugo holds up in these later years. If there's a potential weak point for KC right now, it's the handsomely paid vet.

10. Chicago Cubs

The outlook:

Matthew Boyd will get the Opening Day nod after making his first All-Star appearance in 2025, followed by an appearance with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. It's unclear if the 35-year-old southpaw, with a decade of inconsistency on his résumé, can replicate his success this season. Elite command and a killer changeup should keep Boyd productive, though. The Cubs also made one of the offseason's bigger splashes, moving heaven and earth to acquire Edward Cabrera from Miami, banking on elite off-speed offerings, consistent groundball contact and a developmental breakthrough in a more competitive environment.

The Cubs kept Shōta Imanaga on the qualifying offer, salvaging a relationship that seemed over and done with. Imanaga's second MLB campaign was less than impressive, but he's still a sturdy mid-rotation cog. What the Cubs really have going for them, however, is depth. Cade Horton finished second in Rookie of the Year voting and looks like a legitimate second ace behind Justin Steele, who's slated to return sooner than later from Tommy John surgery. Jameson Taillon is an excellent, time-proven fifth or sixth starter, with Ben Brown available to stretch out of the bullpen if needed. Chicago also has Javier Assad and top prospect Jaxson Wiggins floating in the Minors, just in case.

The X-factor:

After three straight impressive seasons, including an All-Star berth in 2023, Steele missed all but four starts in 2025 after undergoing the second major elbow surgery of his career. Now on the wrong side of 30, it's unclear exactly what we can expect from the talented southpaw. A year ago, Steele was Chicago's unquestioned No. 1 ace and foundational to their postseason goals. That remains the case, ideally, but Steele will need to prove it on the field — and stay healthy — for this Cubs rotation, which is deep but lacking in top-end talent beyond him, to reach its ceiling.

9. New York Mets

The outlook:

The Mets pulled off arguably the biggest pitching addition of the winter, acquiring Freddy Peralta from Milwaukee in exchange for a couple highly-touted prospects. Peralta was a revelation for the Brewers last season, with a 2.70 ERA and 206 strikeouts across 176.2 innings in 33 starts. He's only locked up for a year and an extension seems unlikely, but his longstanding relationship with GM David Stearns could prove meaningful in future negotiations. Odds are Peralta (3.43 xERA) will experience slight regression this season, but nothing drastic. He's the ace this Mets staff needed.

Beyond Peralta, there are equal parts intrigue and concern. Kodai Senga, at his best, has looked the part of a 1A pitcher. He missed almost all of 2024 and was limited to 22 starts last season, however. Sean Manaea was brilliant in 2024, but fell apart at the seams in 2025, dealing with injuries of his own. Now he's coming out of the 'pen as New York's swingman. Clay Holmes has made the successful transition to full-time starter and Nolan McLean, despite a bumpy WBC finale, is a frontrunner to win Rookie of the Year and potentially even compete for Cy Young. David Peterson started last season stronger than he finished, but the lefty was an All-Star and a steadfast presence through 30 starts and 168.2 innings. There are definite cracks; whether those cracks expand or retract is yet to be seen, but the Mets have real talent and real depth.

The X-factor:

We probably won't see Jonah Tong for a few months at least, but he is now New York's highest-profile prospect behind McLean. He wasn't particularly effective in spring, but a deceptive overhead release and an elite fastball give him the foundation for future stardom. If Tong can find a way to break through this season, that not only gives the Mets an injury replacement — it could give them one of the scarier four-man postseason gauntlets along with Peralta, McLean and Senga (or Peterson). If Tong cracks that conversation, the Mets have leveled up.

8. Toronto Blue Jays

The outlook:

Toronto's World Series run will be remembered for its high-powered offense, but the pitching staff was excellent, battling through injuries to hold some of MLB's most potent lineups in check. Kevin Gausman will once again headline the rotation. The 13-year vet is workmanlike in his dominance, an utterly consistent and dependable arm year-over-year. To add to their firepower, Toronto went out early in free agency and inked Dylan Cease to a massive seven-year contract. Few pitchers in baseball are better than Cease on a good day.

The Blue Jays have the top-end talent and plenty of depth. Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber will both begin the year on the IL; Yesavage won't be out long it seems, but Bieber's timeline is a bit more cloudy after he returned from Tommy John surgery late in 2025. Toronto will proceed with absolute caution. In their stead, however, Toronto has Eric Lauer, a capable lefty swingman, and Max Scherzer, who is more than a leadership voice in the locker room. He gave the Blue Jays great innings in October. Newcomer Cody Ponce hasn't pitched in an MLB game since 2021, but he turned his career around in Korea and looked sensational this spring. He could be a legitimate postseason option for the Jays and one of the savvier margin signings of this past winter.

The X-factor:

Will the real Dylan Cease please stand up? The 30-year-old righty has made 32-plus starts and recorded 200-plus strikeouts in five straight campaigns, which is the sort of durability and production a team will pay $210 million for. His ERA ballooned to 4.55 last season, however, which continues a pattern for Cease. He tends to alternate between great, Cy Young-caliber seasons and more middling, inconsistent years. That means Toronto, in theory, is getting him on the right side of the turn, but the Blue Jays would prefer something closer to 2022 or 2024 — when he finished second and fourth in Cy Young voting — on an annual basis. When Cease has command of his arsenal, he's unhittable. When he does not, it can get dicey fast.

7. Pittsburgh Pirates

The outlook:

Paul Skenes has been asking the Pirates for a competitive roster ever since he was called up. Last season was his first full year in Pittsburgh and the 23-year-old dazzled, notching a 1.96 ERA and 216 strikeouts in 187.2 innings. Somehow his record was 10-10 in a Cy Young campaign. That's how bad Pittsburgh's lineup was. Several impressive offseason additions, however, on top of their late surge under new manager Don Kelly, has fans expecting a breakthrough this season.

The Buccos will hope to return 24-year-old ascending ace Jared Jones from internal brace surgery sometime in May, which should reinforce what was already one of the strongest staffs in the National League. Mitch Keller is an unsexy but extremely reliable vet, while 26-year-old Braxton Ashcraft impressed in his transition from reliever to starter last season, and feels like a breakout candidate in 2026. Pittsburgh has oodles of young, up-and-coming talent too. Bubba Chandler ranks among the best pitching prospects in baseball, while 25-year-old southpaw Hunter Barco will begin the season out of the bullpen, but has a chance to earn a starting spot if he performs.

The X-factor:

The Pirates still don't fully know what to expect from Bubba Chandler after minimal MLB exposure in 2025. He supplied mixed results in spring training, alternating between flashes of greatness and stretches of remarkably poor command. Chandler can touch the 100s with his fastball and the secondary stuff all looks great when that fastball is hitting its spots. Pittsburgh needs Chandler to settle in and become that proper second or third postseason-caliber ace behind Skenes and (hopefully) Jones. It could mean the difference between an underdog run in October or another autumn watching from the couch at home.

6. New York Yankees

The outlook:

New York will be working through a deluge of injuries to begin the season. Gerrit Cole is still working his way back from major elbow surgery, with a return date sometime in early June if all goes well. The Yankees are also without Carlos Rodón, expected back in April, and Clarke Schmidt, who should return midseason after undergoing to same procedure as Cole. While it's never ideal to begin a campaign with three injured regulars and a reported four-man rotation, the Yankees' improved depth should help them weather the storm.

Max Fried is a more than capable ace in Cole's absence, as last season proved. The Yankees also have 25-year-old Cam Schlittler coming into his first full campaign with New York after a dazzling finish to 2025. Will Warren logged 33 starts last season and proved his dependability, with a chance to improve on the game-to-game results moving forward. Lefty Ryan Weathers came over from Miami via trade. Injuries have held him back in the past, but the stuff is electric and a strong spring has Yankees fans feeling like he could end up pitching valuable innings in October if all goes well. Luis Gil, the 2024 Rookie of the Year, will begin the season in Triple-A, but he finished spring training on a high note and is not without considerable upside of his own.

The X-factor:

Top-100 prospect Carlos Lagrange was probably the most talked-about pitcher in spring training. He was consistently touching 102 on his fastball and the slider plays beautifully as an out pitch. The 6-foot-7 righty is an imposing figure on the mound, and if spring training were a pure meritocracy, he'd probably be the Yankees' fifth starter right now. The 22-year-old has zero experience above Double-A, however, so New York will start him in the Minors with hopes for a midseason call-up. Lagrange still needs to fine-tune his approach and lock in command-wise, but he looked like an ace this spring. If he can break through to the next level and give the Yankees another outs machine behind Cole and Fried come October, we know how far New York's offense can take it.

5. Detroit Tigers

The outlook:

Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball and he's entering a contract year, which is a nice starting point for any rotation. His abbreviated WBC stint ruffled some feathers, but it means Skubal will be primed and ready for Opening Day. The Tigers also inked Framber Valdez to a massive three-year, $115 million contract — perhaps the most surprising move of the offseason, if only because Detroit does not typically dispose that much cash. Say what you will about Valdez, but he's so durable and so dependable year over year. He's not the flashiest ace, but it's hard to find a more trustworthy one-two punch to get you through the season.

The rest of Detroit's rotation is, admittedly, a bit thinner. Troy Melton is expected back from a strained elbow sometime in May, however, which is a boon. The Tigers will hopefully get Jackson Jobe for the stretch run if his Tommy John rehab goes to plan. In the meantime, Jack Flaherty is a strong bounce-back candidate. Last season was rocky at best, but Flaherty's swing-and-miss rate is pretty damn impressive and he's only a year removed from that magic 18-game stretch with the Tigers, during which he posted a 2.95 ERA and what would have been a career-best 11.2 strikeouts per nine. Casey Mize finished last season with a sub-4.00 ERA across 149 innings; you could do a lot worse for your fifth starter. Justin Verlander was also remarkably solid last season considering his age. The feel-good nature of his return is enough to proceed with (perhaps foolish) optimism.

The X-factor:

Detroit will need to stay healthy. Skubal took on extra work this spring and he's carrying a lot of miles into his final year. But more pressing, the Tigers cannot afford significant missed time for Flaherty, who has dealt with his share of issues in the past, or really even Verlander. Very legitimately relying upon a 43-year-old is, truthfully, a bit scary, even after he posted a 3.85 ERA across 152 innings last season. We all want to see a successful swan song from Verlander in Detroit, but the Tigers' depth will get tenuous if injuries start to pile up.

4. Philadelphia Phillies

The outlook:

Philadelphia has an elite one-two punch locked up through the early 2030s in Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo. The former finished second to Paul Skenes in Cy Young voting last season and there's every reason to believe it's repeatable. Sánchez's changeup is arguably the best single pitch is baseball. Luzardo's 3.92 ERA last season was inflated by a couple fluky bad starts midseason. He was sixth in pitching fWAR and could mount a Cy Young candidacy of his own with another run of good health. He finished seventh in voting.

Aaron Nola really hit a wall last season, but an unimpeachable track record and an excellent spring with the Italian WBC team has instilled some hope that he could bounce back. If there's an issue for Philadelphia, it's depth. Andrew Painter is unproven and while the on-paper results this spring were highly encouraging, his fastball still isn't what it was pre-Tommy John surgery. Taijuan Walker is a fine swingman at this point in his career, but if the Phillies are relying on him for significant reps this season, there's a problem. The Minor League pipeline is a bit thin.

The X-factor:

Of course it's Zack Wheeler. The Phillies' ace will be back soon, with a projected return date in April. Before last season's shoulder injury, Wheeler was up near the top of Cy Young leaderboards. But now he's 35, coming off of thoracic outlet syndrome, which has proven tricky for others to overcome in the past (see: Stephen Strasburg). If Wheeler is Wheeler, there's a strong case for Philadelphia at No. 1 or No. 2 on these rankings. If he comes back a tick below his usual powers, however, that aforementioned lack of depth could prove consequential over the course of 162 games. Especially if Nola and Painter aren't quite up to the task either.

3. Seattle Mariners

The outlook:

Seattle is MLB's premier pitching pipeline. This rotation rocks every season and it should be no different in 2026, with the Mariners once again aiming for the World Series. It would not be crazy to dub them favorites in the American League. It starts with Logan Gilbert, who has a sub-4.00 ERA and 25-plus starts in four straight seasons. That fastball-splitter combo remains top shelf. Bryan Woo is listed as Seattle's No. 2 starter, but he was a model of consistency last season, with a 2.97 ERA and 0.93 WHIP across 186.2 innings to claim fifth place in Cy Young voting.

Luis Castillo is approaching an inevitable decline at 33 years old, but he's another durable, dependable ace: sub-4.00 ERA and 25-plus starts in five straight years. George Kirby hit a slight snag last season, but he has four quality years on the books and the metrics (3.88 xERA) to suggest that even in a down year, the stuff mostly played. He should bounce back. Emerson Hancock will begin the year as Seattle's fifth starter, but he's more of a swingman or depth option long term — with Blas Castaño, Robby Dobnak, Dane Dunning and others on-call in the Minors. Do not discount the potential for 2025 first-round pick Kade Anderson to scale the ladder quickly, too.

The X-factor:

At the end of the day, the ceiling for Seattle's rotation is set by Bryce Miller. He put up a 2.94 ERA across 31 starts in 2024, his second MLB season, and looked like yet another ace up the Mariners' sleeve. Last season, the ERA ballooned to 5.68 and injuries limited him to 18 starts. Miller made a couple successful appearances out of the bullpen in October, but now he's on the IL to begin the year with a strained oblique, which are never fun. If Seattle can get him back in top form this season, the sky's the limit. But little is guaranteed.

2. Boston Red Sox

The outlook:

Boston was wheelin' and dealin' this offseason, making several major additions to the pitching staff. Ranger Suárez came over on a five-year, $150 million contract. There are concerns about velocity trends and age, but Suárez has been so steady over the years, with incredible command and poise under pressure. The Sox also brought in Sonny Gray via trade with St. Louis; he's 36 and almost certainly on the decline, but a more competitive environment should help accentuate Gray's immense talent. He does not walk batters erroneously and he still gets a lot of mileage out of his sweepers and curves.

Brayan Bello made critical strides last season and profiles as a much better No. 5 starter than most teams around the league. Meanwhile, Johan Ovideo — another offseason addition, albeit lower profile — figures to compete with Connelly Early for a rotation spot early in the campaign. Ovideo produces elite soft contact metrics and his fair share of swing-and-miss, so there's potentially for a breakthrough. Early, meanwhile, was an ace in limited exposure last season (2.33 ERA across 19.1 innings) and it already looks like he has made real improvement this season. Boston should also welcome back Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval early in the campaign, with top prospect Payton Tolle due for a midseason call-up. Boston's depth of quality options is practically unmatched.

The X-factor:

Payton Tolle and Connelly Early both profile as legitimate ace candidates in the near future. They are two of the most potent and, better yet, prepared pitching prospects in baseball. Boston has veteran talent to anchor a postseason rotation, but if Early and Tolle can both pop in the Majors this season, the Red Sox will be working with an embarrassment of riches — and with potential contingency plans, should Gray and/or Suárez fall off. Boston's optionality and upside is what sets its rotation apart.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

The outlook:

I don't like this any more than you do, but such is life. The Dodgers are loaded top to bottom, and that includes the rotation. Injuries majorly disrupted L.A.'s pitching staff last season, but it came together just in time for October and the Dodgers, to nobody's surprise, went back-to-back on the World Series stage. Yoshinobu Yamamoto won World Series MVP, capped off by a gutsy Game 7 performance out of the bullpen. The fastball and splitter are devastating in tandem, but really the whole arsenal pops. Blake Snell is back on the IL, but he should return by the end of May. When right, the southpaw — a two-time Cy Young winner — is as good as any pitcher in MLB.

Tyler Glasnow has basically never put together a fully healthy campaign as a starter, with his 134 innings in 2024 marking a career high. When he's out there, though, he's a bonafide All-Star who'd sit No. 1 in a lot of other rotations. Shohei Ohtani is still building up after the WBC, but he struck out 15 in 8.1 innings in spring training. It's easy to forget that he's one of the best pitchers in the sport still, somehow, on top of being a nuclear threat at the plate. Emmet Sheehan, the oft-forgotten "depth" piece, put up a 2.82 ERA across 73.1 innings last season. Los Angeles also has former top prospect River Ryan knocking on the door after an impressive spring.

The X-factor:

Of course, the only reason question mark with this Dodgers staff right now (beyond durability concerns) is prized 24-year-old Rōki Sasaki. When L.A. signed him out of Japan last season, Sasaki was immediately MLB Pipeline's No. 1 overall prospect. Billed as a prodigy and a potential All-Star out of the gate, Sasaki struggled with his command all season, but found new life and rhythm out of the bullpen in October. That success has not translated to spring training, where Sasaki allowed nine hits, 15 walks and 15 earned runs in 8.2 innings. He's still expected to take the bump in a few days for a game that counts. Do not be shocked if Sasaki ends up pitching a fair amount in Triple-A this season, though. Something is broken.

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