As we move to the Divisional Series, four postseason hopefuls are now stuck at home, wondering what went wrong. All of them face the prospect of multiple key free agents leaving this winter — potentially to join teams with designs on catching them in the standings next season.
Some of these teams really did not plan on an early exit. The San Diego Padres pushed in every possible chip at the trade deadline, only to get snuffed out in Chicago. The Boston Red Sox thought, for a while, that this might be The Year. On the other hand, the Cleveland Guardians were just happy to be here after a historic late-season surge. That roster is still young, still growing. Same for the Cincinnati Reds. This was merely a stepping stone for Terry Francona's club.
No matter how you slice it, though, this offseason looms large. All of these teams will almost certainly lose key pieces. The question is whether or not they can adequately replace them — and whether or not those departing free agents or trade chips come back to haunt them with a new team.
Here are five players eliminated in the Wild Card round who might just help a new team break through in 2026 — and where they could end up.
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Emilio Pagán, Cincinnati Reds → Athletics
The Athletics weren't very good this season, but we should probably start paying attention to the squad from Sacramento (sigh). The A's have more offensive firepower than a few teams still in the postseason right now. Nick Kurtz put up MVP-caliber numbers as a rookie and should continue to improve. Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom and Shea Langeliers are all 30-plus home run threats; Lawrence Butler can contribute all five tools when he's rolling. Jacob Wilson was an All-Star. The A's have some real pieces.
All that's standing between the A's and the postseason — aside from life experience and a more respectable clubhouse — is quality pitching. The A's have plenty of interesting arms coming up through the farm system, but their pitching staff is well behind the curve relative to the offense. Emilio Pagán won't plug every hole for the A's, but he can give them a seasoned veteran to anchor the bullpen and mentor younger teammates. That feels like a reasonable investment for a front office that appears increasingly willing to spend money in free agency.
Pagán, who spent his second MLB season in Oakland all the way back in 2018, is known as a somewhat volatile asset. He's not an elite, slam-the-door closer, but he should provide the A's with solid innings toward the back of the bullpen. He picked up 32 saves this season, a career high, while delivering a 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 68.2 innings for the Reds. It's hard to argue with those results.
If the A's can solidify the starting rotation, either through subsequent signings or internal development, while continuing on their current arc offensively, there's a chance Pagán helps them host postseason games at Sutter Health Park next fall.
OF Rob Refsnyder, Boston Red Sox → San Francisco Giants
Rob Refsnyder hits free agency after arguably his best season to date, swatting nine home runs and 30 RBI with an .838 OPS and 131 OPS+ in 209 plate appearances. He offers a strong arm in right field, occasional utility on the right side of the infield, and one of MLB's best swings against left-handed pitching.
He's essentially a platoon bat — Refsnyder's .616 OPS against right-handed pitching succinctly explains why he wasn't in the Red Sox lineup more often — but there is immense value in someone who can just punish lefties every time he steps in the box, whether he's starting in the DH spot, picking up spare reps in the field or coming in late as a pinch-hitter with a chance to swing the balance of a tight ballgame.
The San Francisco Giants loaded up on quality defenders and found their franchise cornerstone in Refsnyder's former Red Sox teammate, Raffy Devers. Refsnyder isn't the piece, but he is a piece, and the Giants are awfully close to breaking through in the NL West. That division is a hellscape for wannabes, but San Francisco has spent enough money and compiled enough talent to be taken seriously sooner than later.
OF Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians → New York Mets
Steven Kwan isn't a free agent this winter, but his name was popular in trade rumors around the deadline and there's reason to believe Cleveland might revisit those conversations in the offseason. Kwan is valuable because of his durability and his stellar defense in left field, but this was his worst season swinging the bat (.705 OPS, 96 OPS+). Meanwhile, Cleveland has a ton of offensive firepower coming up through the farm system, with Chase DeLauter the most notable after his MLB debut in the Wild Card round.
While Kwan very much fits Cleveland's identity as a team — smart swings, aggressive base-running, sharp defense — the Guardians would probably benefit from selling high, before he's in a walk year and before his scant slugging dissipates any further. Kwan is viewed as the No. 2 behind José Ramírez on Cleveland's depth chart, but that's really not the stature he will occupy on a winning team.
The New York Mets need outfield depth, big time. Brandon Nimmo and Juan Soto are everyday starters until further notice, but New York hasn't comfortably landed on that third reliable starter. Starling Marte is a liability on defense. The Cedric Mullins trade didn't pan out. Tyrone Taylor is not the answer. So why not dial up Cleveland, put Kwan in the lineup — whether he's leading the second wave after Lindor and Soto, or scrapping his way on base ahead of them in the leadoff spot — and try to make quick work of moving past this nightmare campaign?
Kwan is a tremendous leader in the clubhouse, too. He brings it every night and knows how to weather a stormy month in the regular season, as evidenced by Cleveland's resillience this year. New York might benefit from Kwan's mental strength as much as his on-field talent.
3B Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox → Arizona Diamondbacks
The Red Sox face a difficult offseason decision when it comes to Alex Bregman. He is expected to opt out of the two years and $80 million remaining on his contract in search of more guaranteed money over a longer timeframe. Bregman began this season scorching hot, but fell off down the stretch and was quiet in Boston's Wild Card loss to New York. He's 32 years old, so concerns about how his skill set ages are plenty valid.
If he's in line for a four- or five-year contract around $25 million annually, that's a number Boston can reach without much issue. But if he can drive up the price even higher in a bidding war — or if the Red Sox just don't feel comfortable paying Bregman as Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and others come up through the farm system — then the two-time World Series champ could end up in a new home.
The Arizona Diamondbacks don't have a clear-cut option at third base right now after trading Eugenio Suárez. Both Blaze Alexander and Jordan Lawlar are due for more regular at-bats next season, but Arizona can move them around the infield creatively. Bregman, too, is flexible between third or second base if needed, giving the D-backs options to mix and match to maximize Bregman's involvement over the duration of his contract.
Few non-postseason teams are set up better for a deep run in 2026 than Arizona. All the Snakes need is better injury luck, a few pitching upgrades and maybe one more big bopper to hit behind Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo. Bregman could certainly do the trick. The Diamondbacks' front office is sneaky aggressive every winter, so don't rule them out of the Bregman sweepstakes.
RHP Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres → Baltimore Orioles
Dylan Cease followed his standard career arc in 2025, watching his ERA balloon into uncomfortable territory after an incredible 2024 campaign that saw him finish top-five in NL Cy Young voting. Cease threw 168 innings, however, his fifth straight year with 165-plus frames. That durability alone makes him a valuable asset, not to mention his elite strikeout stuff and his ceiling, which tops out as one of the best pitchers in MLB.
This "down" season was partially a product of bad luck. Cease's expected ERA (3.47) falls well below his actual ERA (4.55). He still put up 215 strikeouts and induced plenty of soft contact, so there's no reason to believe the 29-year-old can't return to ace form with a blank slate. And of all the teams hoping to break through next summer, none is more in need of a top-shelf starter than the Baltimore Orioles.
We know Baltimore tends to shy away from aggressive free agent pursuits, but we are thinking big here. The O's did trade for Corbin Burnes. New ownership has, in theory, empowered Mike Elias and the front office to operate with a bit more ambition. The O's are loaded with powerful young bats. The defense is solid. All they really need is a stable rotation.
It will take more than Cease to elevate Baltimore to genuine contention, especially in the AL East, but this would be a huge step in the right direction. Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers were lights out down the stretch. Grayson Rodriguez's return should help. If the O's can stay healthy and bring Cease into the fold, suddenly they stack up as well as anyone in the division.