As the Detroit Tigers reckon with Tarik Skubal's exorbitant contract demands and their well-documented lack of resources, it feels increasingly plausible that the soon-to-be two-time AL Cy Young winner could end up on the trade block this offseason. He's only under contract for one more year, but plenty of contenders around MLB would gladly sell the farm for a single season of his services — not to mention the chance to pitch him on sticking around
As for precisely which teams will target Skubal, it's not hard to pin them down. A lot of big-market contenders, with deep pockets and an urgency to win, can justify the risk inherent to getting a deal done. He's one of the most dominant arms of his generation, finishing the 2025 campaign with a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP across 31 starts. Skubal, 28, pounds the strike zone with hard-biting fastballs and sinkers, as well as three deadly off-speed offerings including arguably the best changeup in the sport.
Even with no guarantees beyond 2026, most teams will gladly sacrifice the top of their prospect pool in order to add Skubal to their rotation, especially those on the doorstep of contention. Detroit should do everything in its power to extend Skubal, but if ownership and Scott Harris are simply unwilling to venture into Skubal's tax bracket, then the only acceptable outcome is to trade him for a haul. And folks, Detroit will get a haul.
Skubal is too good to realistically keep any prospect completely off the table, but as teams map out their negotiation strategies, here's a prospect from every likely Skubal suitor that should, unless absolutely necessary, be kept out of Detroit's grasp.
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Seattle Mariners: SS Colt Emerson
Colt Emerson finished his season with an .841 OPS and 16 home runs in 131 games across Minor League competition. The Seattle Mariners boast arguably the deepest farm system in MLB, but Emerson is the crown jewel — and the sort of advanced hitter a front office battles tooth-and-nail to keep, even when one of the most dominant pitchers in recent history is up for grabs.
The Mariners are an especially interesting team. Their rotation is arguably the best in the American League at full strength, with five excellent, postseason-worthy arms on a good day. The offense also reached a higher gear in 2025, led by Cal Raleigh's MVP campaign and an incredible trade deadline haul. But Eugenio Suárez, Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco are all free agents now, which could open the door for Emerson to level up in 2026.
Emerson is extremely disciplined, with a .383 on-base percentage and 71 walks this season. He can hit for power from the left side, but more valuable right now are his contact skills and overall approach. He should hold his own against MLB competition, sidestepping the typical pitfalls most 20-year-olds face in the Majors. Detroit needs bats, and should push hard for Emerson, but the Mariners need to hold tight at all costs, even if it means sacrificing a bit of prospect depth.
Chicago Cubs: OF Owen Caissie
The Chicago Cubs called up Owen Caissie late in the campaign, but he struggled to find his footing as part of a deep outfield depth chart. If Kyle Tucker leaves, that should open the door to regular starts. Given the likelihood of Tucker leaving, plus the looming free agencies of Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, that's reason enough for Chicago to cling tight to their No. 1 prospect.
Caissie appeared in 12 games for the Cubs and posted a .568 OPS across 26 at-bats, but the Minor League numbers are far more encouraging. The 23-year-old spent the entire season in Triple-A, boasting an incredible .937 OPS with 22 home runs and a healthy .386 on-base percentage. He can get a little overambitious at times, leading to strikeouts, but Caissie also draws plenty of walks and exhibits promising signs on the decision-making front. He's also fast on the base paths, which translates to plus range as a defender.
It will be tough for Chicago to keep Caissie out of negotiations given Detroit's need for slugging, especially since Dillon Dingler's breakout dampens the appeal of Chicago's other hard-hitting prospect, catcher Moisés Ballesteros. But if the Cubs can find a way to sweeten the pot enough, Caissie needs to remain on the North Side come 2026. Especially since the Cubs are less likely than other contenders to actually re-sign Skubal.
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Andrew Painter
Detroit will ask for quality pitchers in return, as there's no other way for them to even come close to replacing Skubal. That puts Philadelphia Phillies No. 1 prospect Andrew Painter at the center of any trade conversations. But the Phillies have other quality arms, both in the Majors (Jesús Luzardo) and in the Minors (Gage Wood, Cade Obermueller) that are preferable as trade chips.
That's not to say Painter is a perfect prospect, of course. He finished this season with a middling 5.40 ERA across 22 Triple-A starts. He also missed the previous two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery. The injury history is a genuine concern, and Painter's return to the mound did not flow as seamlessly as Phillies fans hoped it might. There was an expectation that Painter could debut in the Philadelphia rotation this season, but he simply was not up to it.
Even so, Painter's ceiling remains sky-high at just 22 years old. He has four excellent pitches that jump all over the zone, including a fastball that could become one of the best 1A pitches in MLB in due time. Painter needs to command those pitches better — his 3.9 walks per nine innings is unsustainable — but the raw stuff is there, and his first uninhibited offseason in three years should work wonders. The Phillies need to envision Painter next to Skubal, not one in place of the other.
New York Yankees: OF Spencer Jones
Spencer Jones has seen his stock fluctuate over the years, now the No. 4 prospect in the New York Yankees farm system, but he still feels like the guy Brian Cashman and that front office need to be stingiest with. The Yankees' track record of developing hitters is complicated at best, while other top prospect bats like George Lombard Jr. (son of Tigers assistant coach George Lombard Sr.) and Dax Kilby just lack the upside of Jones.
At 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds, Jones has an intimidation factor at the plate. He'd fit right alongside Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in New York's superpowered lineup. Strikeouts are an issue for Jones, a byproduct of his looooong swing, but he's also an elite power source at 24, generating top-shelf exit velocities and hammering 35 home runs with a .933 OPS across Double-A and Triple-A competition this season.
The Tigers will no doubt press for Jones, as Detroit desperately needs more pop in the heart of the order, but there is clear All-Star potential rooted in Jones' ability to send it deep and drive home runs — not to mention his 29 stolen bases and solid defensive chops in center field, a spot that could open up in New York this winter as Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger test free agency.
Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Josue De Paula
None of us want Tarik Skubal on the Los Angeles Dodgers, and yet, it remains entirely plausible. What makes the Dodgers such an impressive (and annoying) organization is their ability to locate and develop talent at the farm level, in addition to their uninhibited offseason spending. And the best prospect in L.A.'s top-ranked prospect pipeline right now is 20-year-old outfielder Josue De Paula.
"Dodgers officials routinely describe De Paula as the most advanced young hitter their organization has had in years," per MLB Pipeline. That is high praise considering all the great offense that has come up through the L.A. system. De Paula finished season with a .791 OPS and 12 home runs in 102 games between High-A and Double-A. He also picked up 32 stolen bases.
There are concerns about De Paula's defensive projection long term, but he's a savvy hitter who generates enticing exit velocities. At 6-foot-3, he has all the tools. This Dodgers team needs help in the outfield more than any other position, as Teoscar Hernandez gets older and Michael Conforto moves on after one miserable year. While De Paula might be a year or two away from his MLB debut, Los Angeles would be smart to hang on.
Boston Red Sox: SS Franklin Arias
The Boston Red Sox farm system has become one of the gems of MLB. There's a nonzero chance Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell are starting full-time from Opening Day next season. Franklin Arias, 19, will need a few more years to reach that level, but if Arias (SS), Mayer (2B), and Campbell (1B) are the future of this infield, do not be shocked.
Boston needs an additional ace as badly as any contender in baseball, and it's hard to overstate how imposing Skubal and Garrett Crochet would be at the top of a rotation. But Arias has already shown an incredible capacity for growth at a young age. He's smart at the plate and a black hole at shortstop, able to cover a wide range with his glove and rifle throws to first base at max velocity.
Both Alex Bregman and Trevor Story are eligible for free agency this winter and neither qualifies as a spring chicken. Arias won't factor into the MLB equation for a while, but his moment could come sooner than folks expect — and when it does, he has a chance to supply all five tools to a Red Sox team built to sustainably contend in the AL East.
New York Mets: RHP Nolan McLean
Nolan McLean made a strong first impression on New York Mets fans this season. He earned his call-up in August and put up a pristine 2.06 ERA across eight starts. He logged 57 K's in 48.0 innings and finished with a 1.04 WHIP. Had the Mets cracked the postseason, McLean would've been their featured ace.
It's hard to know exactly what to expect from McLean long term — eight starts is hardly a meaningful sample, especially when MLB offenses aren't up to speed on your stuff — but the early returns are awfully tantalizing. He wields a destructive fastball and pitches with a mean streak.
The Mets need depth on the mound as much as anything. Kodai Senga's health is unreliable and Sean Manaea was a shell of himself this season. McLean, along with fellow rookies Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong, represent significant long-term upside for the Mets. But wiping out all their depth for Skubal, when he can still pick up and leave come 2027, is a significant risk. The Mets have to give up something, but the vision should be Skubal and McLean headlining the rotation for the next decade.