The Detroit Tigers' 15th-inning loss to the Seattle Mariners in Game 5 of the ALDS was absolutely gut-wrenching. They were so, so close, and yet Detroit now goes back to the drawing board with the clock ticking ominously in the background. Tarik Skubal, the soon-to-be Cy Young winner for the second straight year, is entering his final season under contract. The Tigers typically don't spend at the level necessary to keep Skubal in Detroit beyond 2026.
As free agent paydays inflate around the league, the hard-throwing southpaw could be looking at a contract in the $400 million-plus range next winter. Not only is Skubal the best pitcher in the American League, but there's added value with a lefty as matchup-proof and battle-tested as him. Skubal delivered excellent results all throughout Detroit's postseason run. In fact, he was the only starter Detroit could rely on the pitch deep into games every fourth or fifth day.
Skubal finished the regular season with a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, registering 241 strikeouts in 195.1 innings. He has now made 31 starts in back-to-back seasons, settling in as not only the undisputed No. 1 starter in Detroit, but arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Only Paul Skenes can really challenge him for that title.
If the Tigers decide Skubal's future lies elsewhere, the only logical next step is to trade him. The haul would be massive, and it's preferable to running out the clock and losing him for nothing. That's especially true if Detroit is unwilling to invest in the necessary additions to cement the Tigers as a bonafide, top-shelf contender in the AL.
Even in a walk year, Skubal would return significant value in a trade. How significant? Well, that's the question. Here are a few recent comps to follow as guiding lights.
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Brewers trade Corbin Burnes to Orioles on expiring contract
"The baseline [for a Skubal trade return] is somewhere north of what Milwaukee received for Corbin Burnes,” an NL executive told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand. “How far north of that is anyone’s guess.”
What exactly did the Brewers receive for Burnes? Southpaw D.L. Hall and shortstop Joey Ortiz, two top-100 prospects, along with a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (No. 34 overall). This is especially notable A) because Burnes was also on an expiring contract and B) because the Orioles probably knew, deep down, their chances of keeping Burnes were exceedingly slim.
If Skubal gets dealt in his final year of arbitration, on a bargain contact, a lot of teams are going to take interest — even those without a realistic hope of extending him as a free agent. The O's might be one of those teams. Other smaller market contenders, such as Seattle, Arizona (Burnes' current home) and Milwaukee, could also justify the expense. Even if, again, it's only a one-year investment.
Skubal is slightly younger than Burnes and it feels like he has a longer runway for elite production. He will also be even tougher to negotiate with in the winter months. The Orioles did, to their credit, make an earnest attempt at re-signing Burnes. It was never particularly likely, but teams will probably like to think there's a chance of Skubal sticking around before emptying their stores. Either that, or think Skubal guarantees a frontrunner label in the World Series hunt.
Red Sox dealt cornerstone prospect for Garrett Crochet (then extended him)
Garrett Crochet was dealt to the Boston Red Sox at 25 years old, with two years left on his contract. Boston promptly extended him this summer. So, it's not an apple-to-apple comparison, but it may honestly serve as a better reference point for Skubal's trade value. He's older and under less club control, but Skubal is just that good. Teams will need to cough up a lot to get him out of Detroit.
The White Sox received two top-100 prospects in catcher Kyle Teel (one of Boston's vaunted 'big four' alongside Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer) and outfielder Braden Montgomery. Chicago also got two more top-30 Red Sox prospects in infielder Chase Miedroth, who quickly joined the MLB ranks, and right-handed pitcher Wikelman González.
Detroit's reported asking price is two quality pitchers and a high-ranked positional prospect. That can manifest in a variety of ways — whether it's two MLB-ready starters or two elite prospects, along with a positional asset or two — but the Tigers are going to clean house with any team attempting to acquire the All-Star lefty. As they should. As they can. Skubal is so damn good, and the Tigers, unlike the White Sox, are a serious team with immediate competitive aspirations. So Detroit won't just trade Skubal without a return that's up to their standard.
Yankees went above and beyond for a year of Juan Soto
The New York Yankees went all-out to acquire Juan Soto from San Diego in the final year of his contract. The Yankees knew they had a decent shot to re-sign Soto, but clearly there was the risk of another big-market club (their cross-town rivals in Queens, as it turns out) outbidding them. New York also was in a position to win, pairing Soto and a perennial MVP candidate and the greatest hitter of his generation in Aaron Judge. The Soto trade carried New York to the World Series.
Can Skubal move the needle for a team on the World Series bubble? Absolutely. But it's hard to compare the value of an elite starter, who pitches once every five games, to that of an elite, everyday bat like Soto, one of the most talented stars in MLB. Soto was also dealt at age 25. So while it's a useful point of comparison, the Tigers can't realistically expect a Soto-level return for Skubal.
San Diego received MLB catcher Kyle Higashioka, a quality starting arm in Michael King and three more young pitchers in Jhony Brito, Drew Thorpe and Randy Vásquez. Thorpe was a top-100 MLB prospect. Vásquez was the No. 13 prospect in New York's system. That is a quantity over absolute quality situation, although King turned himself into a genuine All-Star on the mound, exceeding expectations for the Padres. He's about to get paid in free agency, ironically, although San Diego might not be the team dolling out that cash.
The Tigers won't get so much in return, but the baseline — a couple MLB-ready contributors, a couple top prospects — isn't a bad reference point. San Diego will squeeze multiple years of quality production out of several of their Soto trade pieces. The Tigers will hope to receive multiple meaningful, long-term assets if Skubal winds up on the market.
Cubs gave up a lot for their one shot with Kyle Tucker
The Chicago Cubs dealt for Kyle Tucker just last offseason, offloading an All-Star third baseman in Isaac Paredes, as well as top-100 prospect Cam Smith and right-handed swingman Hayden Wesneski. That is... not a little. Paredes struggled in his brief stint with the Cubs in 2024, but he was an All-Star in his mid-20s, with multiple years of club control left over his contract. Paredes would return a significant haul himself. Tacking on a top-100 prospect and a quality rotation arm for Tucker, in a walk year, proves just how desperate Chicago was.
Tucker's a free agent now. Chicago will put forth its best effort to re-sign him, but the deck is stacked against them. There are too many big-market clubs with more ambitious ownership groups. The Cubs knew the odds of Tucker leaving. They did the trade anyway, and it was a worthwhile swing, even if the end result was an NLDS loss to Craig Counsell's ex-team.
This will be the logic for a lot of Skubal suitors. Sub-50 percent odds of keeping him, but with a real chance to level up and compete in October. The Tigers probably don't get a mid-20s All-Star and a top-100 prospect back, but it's not out of the question either. Skubal is the best pitcher to (potentially) become available in quite some time.
Detroit should do its best to keep Skubal. He's a franchise cornerstone, with the potential to develop into a franchise icon if he spends his entire career in a Tigers uniform. But, if push comes to shove and the best option is to trade him, Scott Harris and the front office need to be relentless in their pursuit of max value. A bidding war will ensue, and some awfully enticing offers to bound to cross Harris' desk.