The MLB offseason has arrived for 28 of the 30 MLB teams. While the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers figure to hold our attention for the next week-plus, the majority of MLB fans are already thinking about what comes next for their favorite team. Who stays? Who goes? And will the front office deliver on the promise of a blank slate?
There's the potential for significant movement this winter, both in free agency and on the trade front. While we don't have Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto vying for $700 million contracts, there are plenty of stars preparing to test the open market. Kyle Tucker could line up $400 million-plus on his next deal. Kyle Schwarber is about to finish runner-up in NL MVP voting. He's available to the highest bidder. Pete Alonso is beloved in Queens, but the Mets first baseman is once again up for grabs. It could be more difficult for New York to stomach a reunion this time around.
Meanwhile, there are high-profile trade candidates, like Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal (himself a $400 million-plus candidate in 2027) and Milwaukee Brewers fireballer Freddy Peralta, who could shift the balance of power in MLB.
It's generally fun and good for baseball which stars change teams. It spices things up. It adds suspense and surprise to the season ahead. That said, when it comes to these five stars in particular, there's a strong case for all of 'em staying put.
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Brewers should consider running it back with Freddy Peralta
The Milwaukee Brewers dealt Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles two years ago under similar circumstances. The perennial Cy Young candidate, coming off arguably his best season to date, was on an expiring contract and the Brewers knew they weren't going to find common ground on an extension. Peralta can walk in a year and there's nothing in Milwaukee's recent history to suggest that the front office will pay the sticker price in free agency.
That said, Peralta's club option for $8 million is considerably less than Burnes' $15 million arbitration tag, and Milwaukee doesn't exactly have a Freddy Peralta in waiting, like they did when Burnes was dealt. Rookie sensation Jacob Misiorowski figures to make an extended impact next season, and there's considerable excitement around 25-year-old Logan Henderson. But Peralta is a different beast. The Brewers aren't going to replace his consistency and experience in-house, and we know damn well the front office won't get feisty in free agency.
Losing Peralta for nothing as a free agent will sting. It's not a desirable outcome. But Milwaukee won 96 games this season, good enough for the No. 1 overall seed in the National League. The Dodgers aren't going anywhere unfortunately, but the Brewers should run it back. They have a responsbility to their fans to give it their best shot. Peralta can return a significant trade haul, which may even include his replacement, but the 29-year-old was on the shortlist of best pitchers in MLB this season. Trading him makes the Brewers worse, when the goal should be to upgrade on the margins and run it back with hopes of advancing beyond the NLCS.
Mets won't come by Pete Alonso's replacement too easily
The widespread expectation is that New York Mets GM David Stearns will let Pete Alonso walk this offseason. New York has more than enough resources to extend Alonso again, but after waiting out a stagnant market in 2024, Alonso figures to drum up more interest this time around. He's coming off another special season at the plate, despite New York's collective struggles. Alonso hit .272 with an .871 OPS and 144 OPS+, rocking 38 home runs. That is a valuable player.
Alonso has been put into an undesirable box — the slugging, "inconsistent" first baseman who will need to switch to DH eventually — but there just aren't many sluggers out there with Alonso's bona fides. Especially not at first base. New York has the financial wherewithal to go out and sign a quality replacement. Josh Naylor would give them a more well-rounded presence with his defense and base-running. Cody Bellinger can, in theory, switch to first base full time. He's a rangier defender and an even more accomplished postseason performer, on paper. Even guys like Ryan O'Hearn and Dominic Smith can do the job credibly.
But at the end of the day, Alonso is a singular source of slugging, and a great incentive for pitchers to attack the batters in front of him. In New York's case, more often than not, that is Juan Soto. You want to protect Soto at the plate. And with Soto (and Francisco Lindor) ahead of him, Alonso is regularly in a position to drive home runs. A lot of 'em. You won't get the same results with a lesser bat. Ryan Clifford, New York's 22-year-old Minor League sensation, brings plenty of pop (and a lot of the same shortcomings) at first base, but you know damn well he's not going to slug at Alonso's level. Certainly not as a rookie.
The Mets can't afford another letdown. Alonso is beloved in Queens. He's also damn good at baseball, showing no signs of slowing down where it really counts. The defense will get worse. Yes, he'll need to DH eventually, which might bump up awkwardly against Soto's own defensive limitations in right field. But the Mets need to maximize this early window with Soto in his prime. The best way to do that is keeping Alonso around.
Phillies can't mess around with Kyle Schwarber any longer
The Philadelphia Phillies failed to agree to terms on an extension with Kyle Schwarber before the season and he delivered his best individual campaign to date in response, swatting 56 home runs with a .928 OPS and 150 OPS+. It's rare for designated hitters not named Shohei Ohtani to earnestly compete for MVP. Schwarbs is going to finish second to Ohtani. You'll still find a few stragglers who earnestly believe he should finish first.
Another postseason letdown has put Phillies fans in a dark place, but this team has all the talent necessary to mount a deep run. If there's a pressing issue, it's the lack of consistent production from the back half of the lineup, as well as the diminishing returns from Bryce Harper. The Phillies need to generate more power and drive in more runs, not less. Losing their best hitter — and certainly their most fearsome hitter — would land like a wet fart in Philadelphia. There's no overcoming it, no "better option" in free agency, unless Dave Dombrowski is actually willing to pony up and pursue Kyle Tucker.
Schwarber is a fan favorite and a huge presence in the Phillies locker room, which only adds to the motivation to keep him around. His hometown Cincinnati Reds, plus former teams like the Red Sox and Cubs, ought to come knocking this winter. But the Phillies cannot back down. There is no positive outcome that involves Schwarber leaving, so the Phillies shouldn't even entertain the idea. Re-signing him is a no-brainer.
Cubs need to justify the Kyle Tucker trade by re-signing him
This is pretty simple. Kyle Tucker can go off and sign with the Dodgers and win a few more rings. It's a nice thought. But it also feels detrimental to the sport for L.A. to keep stockpiling superstar upon superstar while the rest of the league lags behind. And, frankly, it would be a lot more meaningful to Tucker's legacy if he can bring the World Series crown back to Chicago, MLB's most populous fanbase and a historic franchise in its own right.
From the Chicago Cubs' perspective, well, there's really no way around it. Letting Tucker walk would be an abject failure. This was a successful season on the whole. Chicago made it to the NLDS, took the first-place Brewers to five games, and took a meaningful step in the right direction. But the Cubs also sold the farm — All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, top prospect Cam Smith and more — to acquire Tucker from the Astros. To lose him after one season (and a second-round exit) after paying such a high price would be a huge setback.
The Cubs typically don't pay sticker price on top free agents like this. Tucker is going to get $400 million-plus, which is not great value on the whole. Paying him $30-40 million annually in his late 30s is going to get uncomfortable, no matter where he ends up. It's a necessary evil, however. The Cubs need to maximize this window of opportunity, with Tucker in his prime and Pete Crow-Armstrong blossoming into a five-tool superstar. The Cubs occupy one of the biggest markets in professional sports. Tom Ricketts makes an obscene profit every season.
There is no excuse, besides being cheap, for not one-upping other suitors to keep Tucker in-house. There ought to be a line in the sand somewhere, but there's no chance it's low enough for Chicago to justify letting Tucker walk. Re-sign the man and earn the trust of your fans.
Tigers and Tarik Skubal need to figure out a path forward
The Detroit Tigers were a 15th-inning Game 5 loss to the Seattle Mariners away from the ALCS. This team has the bones of a genuine World Series contender. AJ Hinch is the best manager in MLB, with plenty of experience come October. The offense needs reinforcements, as does the pitching staff, but this team executes at such a high level. It helps when your No. 1 starter is basically a guaranteed W.
Tarik Skubal is about to win his second straight AL Cy Young award in a Tigers uniform. He finished the season with a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, notching 241 strikeouts in 195.1 innings. The hard-throwing lefty is practically unhittable when he's locating his pitches. Detroit would do well to add a couple solid arms behind Skubal in the rotation, but trading him for less established arms would be dramatic step in the wrong direction.
Is Detroit going to pay the $400 million-plus necessary to keep Skubal in free agency, much less extend him ahead of time? Probably not. This front office tends to operate with one hand tied behind its back financially. Detroit is a smaller market and Tigers ownership does not traditionally splurge on high-profile free agents, whether it's in-house or on the open market.
But the Tigers' rich history of elite pitching — Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, etc. — has been tainted by an inability to sign those great arms. Both Verlander and Scherzer went on to win the World Series with different teams. If Skubal joins that list, it just becomes another stain on the Tigers' reputation.
This team is close enough to warrant bringing Skubal back and trying to figure it out. Skubal clearly wants to stay. For now, it feels like Detroit needs to stay the course and figure it out. Be bold. Spend the money. Your fans will thank you — and the postseason accomplishments will follow eventually.