For the second straight season, the Detroit Tigers lost in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the ALDS, falling short of their goal of getting back to the World Series for the first time in over a decade. Tarik Skubal did his best to will the Tigers into the ALCS, allowing just three runs in 13 innings across two starts with 24 (!) strikeouts, but the Tigers lost each of those games because their offense simply didn't show up.
Yet, despite the clear need to upgrade the roster around Skubal, seemingly all of the early discourse discussing next steps for Detroit have the Tigers trading away the best pitcher on the planet.
The Tigers could be pushing for a World Series title if they make the necessary improvements around Skubal, but instead, it's starting to feel like they're pushing a small-market excuse that they cannot pay their ace. Skubal is set to hit free agency after the 2026 season, and is sure to seek one of, if not the richest contract a pitcher has ever received (and deservingly so).
When asked about the idea of paying Skubal long-term after their Wild Card Series win, Tigers owner Christopher Illitch dodged the question, saying he's focused on 2025. He has never said outright that he's committed to keeping Skubal a Tiger.
Let me be absolutely clear; the Tigers can, and should, pay Skubal right now and make him a Tiger for life. In fact, Scott Harris has already proven that the organization can absolutely afford Skubal without breaking a sweat if they really want to.
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Tigers can afford to pay Tarik Skubal, and Scott Harris has proven that
Not only does Illitch have a multi-billion dollar net worth, but the Tigers haven't exactly spent nothing in recent years. Sure, they haven't spent as much as they should, but they've spent some money. I mean, just look at the guys they paid this past season.
$52M combined this year on Flaherty, Kenta Maeda & Alex Cobb
— Jed 🇬🇧 (@TigersJUK) July 21, 2025
The Tigers spent $52 million on a pitching trio consisting of Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb. Here's what those three pitchers did this season.
- Flaherty: 31 GS, 8-15, 161.0 IP, 4.64 ERA
- Maeda: 7 G, 0-0, 8 IP, 7.88 ERA
- Cobb: 0 MLB appearances
Flaherty had the 10th highest ERA among 53 starters to throw at least 160 innings. Maeda looked so overmatched that he was DFA'd and released in early May. Cobb did not throw a single MLB pitch this season after dealing with injuries.
The Tigers willingly spent $52 million on that. Even if those guys performed like All-Stars, they still will have proven they have $52 million annually to spend on Skubal if they wanted to. For what it's worth, both Maeda and Cobb will be off the books this winter, and there's a chance Flaherty will, too.
The best part is, the Tigers almost certainly won't have to pay Skubal $52 million annually.
Tarik Skubal won't cost Tigers as much money as you might think
Will Skubal be the richest pitcher in MLB history? Probably, and for good reason, but even then, that contract won't cost the Tigers an absurd amount of money in a year-to-year basis. Just look at the highest AAVs in 2026 per Spotrac and tell me where Skubal will fall.
Player | Position | AAV | Total Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
Shohei Ohtani | DH/SP | $70,000,000 | 10 years, $700 million |
Juan Soto | OF | $51,000,000 | 15 years, $765 million |
Zack Wheeler | SP | $42,000,000 | 3 years, $126 million |
Aaron Judge | OF | $40,000,000 | 9 years, $360 million |
Jacob deGrom | SP | $37,000,000 | 5 years, $185 million |
Blake Snell | SP | $36,400,000 | 5 years, $182 million |
Gerrit Cole | SP | $36,000,000 | 9 years, $324 million |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | $35,714,286 | 14 years, $500 million |
Mike Trout | OF | $35,541,667 | 12 years, $426 million |
Corbin Burnes | SP | $35,000,000 | 6 years, $210 million |
Right off the bat, only one player, Shohei Ohtani, has a higher AAV than the $52 million that Tigers trio made in 2025, and that isn't even really reality, since all but $20 million of his $700 million is deferred. This goes to show that a $52 million AAV on a long-term contract, particularly for a pitcher, is unheard of.
Zack Wheeler's $42 million AAV is the highest among starting pitchers, and he got that on a three-year deal. Skubal is going to get more total money than Wheeler since he's going to sign a long-term deal, but will he really get an AAV that high? The contract closest to what Skubal is going to get is Gerrit Cole's nine-year, $324 million pact that he inked with the New York Yankees, which pays him an AAV of $36 million.
When adding the $10 million apiece made by Skubal and Maeda in 2025 with the $15 million made by Cobb, we get $35 million right there. Even if Skubal makes an AAV of $40 million in a nine-year deal, are you really telling me the Tigers can't afford an extra $5 million? This doesn't even factor in the Flaherty deal which might come off the books this winter.
Tigers have no excuse but to pay Tarik Skubal
They can cry poor all they want, but the reality is that the Tigers can pay Tarik Skubal if they really wanted to. Will it likely age poorly? Sure. Skubal making $30 or $40 million when he's in his late 30s probably won't be great. However, they'd have him for all of his prime years, give themselves a legitimate shot at winning a World Series title, and make a potential Hall of Famer a lifelong Tiger. Would those things not be worthwhile?
The only players the Tigers are committed to paying past the 2026 season are Javier Baez, who will be entering the final year of his deal at $24 million, and Colt Keith, who is going to make $4.3 million. Keith is the only player signed to a deal past 2027, and he isn't guaranteed to make over $5.5 million in any of those years.
Knowing this, the TIgers can afford to pay Skubal while also surrounding him with better talent. Will they? I can't answer that. What i do know is that they've paid inferior talent more than Skubal will make on a year-to-year basis and that they have virtually no money committed long-term.
The time for the Tigers to show that they're serious about winning is now - when their team has been postseason-bound, but unable to make a deep run. There's no better way to prove that than by paying one of your own when you have the ability to do that.
Do not trade him. Pay him. We all know you can do it.