With MLB free agency off to the races and the Winter Meetings right around the corner, things are very much happening in the baseball world. This isn't a stacked free agent class necessarily, and there are signs of a potential lull in the marketplace (especially with a 2027 lockout on the table). But even so, plenty of contenders will be hoping to change their fortunes for the better.
Free agency is a period of risk assessment for every organization. No free agent is perfect. Is Kyle Tucker really worth $400 million? Can Dylan Cease rebound and become the ace we thought he was? Can we actually count on Eugenio Suarez to produce 50-home run power (more on that later)? There's no easy answer.
OF Harrison Bader
Harrison Bader joined the Philadelphia Phillies at the deadline and produced in a big way. He posted an .824 OPS and 124 OPS+ in 50 regular season games with Philadelphia, cranking five home runs and supplying elite defense in centerfield. Suddenly, the Phillies' outfield went from a crippling weakness to a relative strength.
Bader couldn't have picked a better time for the best season of his career. On paper, there's much to like — excellent defense at a premium position, speed on the bases, flurries of genuine power. The 31-year-old can get hot and move the needle in the right direction for a contender.
That said, buyer beware. Bader finished last season with a .796 OPS overall. That was his first season eclipsing .700 OPS and 100 OPS+ since 2021. It reads more as an aberration than a new normal, especially since Bader's underlying metrics were less than glamorous. His expected average (.223) fell more than 50 points shy of his actual average (.277). The disparity between his expected slugging (.364) and his actual slugging (.463) was even more glaring.
Spoken as a desperate Phillies fan who greatly appreciates Bader's overall vibe and has an illogical desire to bring him back, there's a good chance his next team is overpaying based on a noisy, unsustainable set of data.
Probable outcome: CLOSE THE WINDOW
3B Kazuma Okamoto
Munetaka Murakami, the 25-year-old from Japan with light tower power, is generating a lot of buzz in the early stages of free agency. But the better option might be 29-year-old countryman Kazuma Okamoto.
He comes with concerns of his own, especially on defense, and he's four years Murakami's senior. However, Okamoto's statistical profile is simply far more appealing — and feels more sustainable against MLB pitching. Murakami's 32.3 percent strikeout rate in NPB last season was high by even MLB standards. Okamoto's sat at a more palatable 13.3 percent. He hit .322 with a .411 OBP and .992 OPS. The righty can crank up the power, too, finishing with 17 home runs in 146 games and 88 across nine NPB seasons.
There is a sharp difference between NPB pitching and MLB pitching, but Okamoto checks all the boxes. His 55 game power grade at FanGraphs sits above average. Also, per ESPN's Jeff Passan, Okamoto's projected contract sits around $50 million, compared to nine-figures for Murakami. And while there is significant potential value in both NPB third basemen, Okamoto's trades explosiveness for consistency in a way that should manifest as better consistency.
Nothing is ever guaranteed with international free agents, but Okamaoto, a six-time NPB All-Star, should hit toward the middle of a lineup while providing flexibility between third base and first base — maybe even the outfield. This just projects as solid value for a contender in need of pop, but unwilling to spend at the top end of the market.
Probable outcome: EXTEND THE WINDOW
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3B Eugenio Suárez
Eugenio Suárez was the most coveted position player available at the MLB trade deadline this past season after posting an .897 OPS, 142 OPS+ and 36 home runs in 106 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Seattle Mariners won the bidding war, only for Suárez's production to come crashing back to earth. He posted a .682 OPS and 94 OPS+ with 13 home runs in 53 games for Seattle.
This is basically the book on Suárez. When he's hot, Suárez ranks among the most dangerous and explosive power hitters in MLB. But when he's not, it's a lot of strikeouts (29.8 percent K%) and long, extended fallow periods. Suárez's 49 home runs tied his career high and his 118 RBI was a new personal best. He's going to get paid, probably with a two- or three-year contract. But his next team needs to be careful.
Suárez is a subpar defensive third baseman and it won't get better as he ages into his mid-30s. The slugging is definitely a boon, but Suárez can really drag an offense down when he's not pumping dingers. He catches a lot of barrels, but he chases at an even more extreme rate.
Age, defense, and an uneven, generally volatile hitting profile, makes Suárez an extremely risky investment. His grand slam in the ALCS was a crowning moment, and Suárez is by no means a bad player. But if the wrong team wraps up significant salary to bring in Suárez, it could prove crippling.
Probable outcome: CLOSE THE WINDOW
LHP Ranger Suárez
There is a wide range of opinions on Ranger Suárez, the 30-year-old sinkerballer with six pitches at his command and a rather unique profile by the standards of modern-day aces. Suárez was electric for the Phillies last season, finishing with a 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 157.1 innings. He has a career 1.48 ERA in the postseason.
On the surface, Suárez checks all the boxes. He minimizes walks, maximizes soft contact, and coaxes a lot of groundballs. He even has a healthy 23.2 percent strikeout rate. But last season saw Suárez's average fastball velocity dip to 90.5 MPH, which is awfully low. It can lead to issues when his razor-sharp command slips, even a little bit.
Skeptics will argue that Suárez is on the downturn and that his numbers will explode in a negative direction as he ages. Optimists, like myself, see a pitcher who isn't reliant on power stuff. A pitcher capable of pounding the strike zone, missing bats and posting a 98th percentile hard hit rate despite his laggy velo.
There are also the intangibles with Suárez, which — call me a fool — count for a lot. He is incredibly poised under pressure. He patiently escapes jams with nary a change in facial expression. He's a Gold Glove defender, for what that's worth. He levels up in the postseason, without fail. Suárez won't get frontline ace money, but he has a chance to provide durable, consistent impact toward the top of a rotation for years to come.
Probable outcome: EXTEND THE WINDOW
DH Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber is awesome. He's a leader in the clubhouse and one of the most consistent home run bombers in MLB. This is not necessarily a short-term value judgement. Schwarber is coming off of his best season in a productive 11-year career, thwacking 56 home runs with a .928 OPS and 150 OPS+ (all career highs). He drove in 132 runs (also a career high). The Phillies don't finish second in the National League without Schwarber's titanic production, which earned him MVP runner-up honors.
That said — and again, this is from a Phillies fan who desperately wants every ex-Phillies mentioned back in red pinstripes — Schwarber is looking at a five-year, nine-figure contract. He's a 32-year-old DH with a historically volatile hitting profile, trading contact for strikeouts. He did less of that in 2025, but it's unreasonable to expect career-best production and consistency ever season. Especially as he ages into his mid-30s.
Schwarber is basically unplayable on defense, save for the occasional pinch start in left field that serves as more of an experiment in curiosity, rather than an actual game plan. He draws walks and should continue to command the fear of opposing pitchers, but there will be fallow periods. He got quite cold down the stretch of this season, even.
There's a reason most aging designated hitters don't command five-year, $100 million-plus contracts. Schwarber is good enough to be the exception to the rule, but he limits lineup flexibility as an everyday DH and you just know the back end of that contract will age... in a complicated way. Just be prepared.
Probable outcome: 50/50
SS Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette was a fluke Miguel Rojas home run away from delivering the defining hit of the 2025 playoffs when he rocked a 430-foot, three-run nuke off of Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 of the World Series. On the whole, the Toronto Blue Jays shortstop rebounded nicely from an uncharacteristic, injury-plagued 2024 campaign, finishing the regular season with a .311 average and .840 OPS. This is his third season with over 180 hits and his third season with an above-.300 average.
Now, Bichette hits the open market. There's really no doubt about what the 27-year-old offers at the plate. Last season was an aberration in an otherwise dominant career. The primary concerns are defensive, as Bichette lags behind the majority of his peers at shortstop; his -13 outs above average ranked worst among shortstops in MLB.
Those concerns are alleviated somewhat by his flexibility, though. Bichette acclimated nicely to second base in the World Series. That's not to say he's going to be a Gold Glove second baseman the rest of his career, but Bichette can at least carry water at a less premium position. There's potential to move him to third base, too.
Bichette isn't a huge home run threat (18 last season, a career high of 29), but he generates tons of hard contact to both sides of the field. He works deep into counts and tracks pitches beautifully, able to avoid strikeouts and hit bullets into either outfield gap. He even has some Vladdy Sr. to his game, able to hit damn near anything he puts his mind to.
Factor in Bichette's age, 27, as one of the youngest available free agents, and he's a strong bet to extend the competitive lifespan of whichever team he joins.