MLB Home Run Derby expert picks: Chaos, Cruz, and cursed predictions

The Home Run Derby is less than a week away, which means that now is the perfect time to make some wild predictions about what is going to take place at Truist Park on Monday, July 14. This Derby field has so many first-year additions, making it incredibly hard to predict, as you can see from FanSided's staff predictions. Of the five MLB experts who participated, four different winners were picked, and only six participants have even been announced as of this writing.

I, personally, picked the only non-All-Star (so far) participating in the event, Oneil Cruz, to win it. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder is far from perfect as a player, but nobody can argue that he doesn't have immense talent, particularly when it comes to hitting the ball hard and far.

It goes without saying that I expect a lot of Cruz missiles and much more chaos to unfold in Atlanta next week.

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Who will hit the most home runs in a single round?

I have Cruz winning the whole thing, but I do not have him hitting the most home runs in a single round. That, I believe, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. will do, and it isn't hard to predict why.

Braves fans might not have much to cheer for this season, but they do have one of their own, Acuña, participating in the derby. Acuña is going to have a boisterous crowd behind him, and as we've seen in the not-too-distant past with guys like Bryce Harper and Todd Frazier, that can give a needed boost.

Perhaps even more importantly, Acuña is the only member of this Home Run Derby field with any sort of experience in the event as of this writing, and this will be his third time participating. First-time participants can win, but while Acuña hasn't won the event, he knows the kind of energy he'll need to exert in order to get the job done. I expect experience and the home crowd to help aid an electric first round from Acuña, and while I have Cruz winning, I wouldn't be shocked if Acuña pulled out the victory in his home ballpark.

Which non-Cruz player will hit the hardest home run?

If there's one thing Oneil Cruz is known for, it's hitting the ball incredibly hard. I mean, memes are going around on social media wondering whether Cruz is going to hurt the children attempting to catch his line drives in the outfield.

Cruz is the player responsible for the hardest-hit ball ever recorded in the Statcast era, a 122.9 mph missile shot into the Allegheny River, earlier this season. It's easy to expect him to hit the hardest home run of the night. As for the next-best bet for the hardest home run, that'll be Washington Nationals superstar James Wood.

I was between Cruz and Wood as my winner. I went with Cruz, but as is the case with Acuña, I wouldn't be shocked if Wood came away with the victory (this field is ridiculously stacked.)

He might not hit the ball quite as hard as Cruz, but he's tied for fourth with Shohei Ohtani and Josh Naylor, two proven sluggers, with a 117.9 mph max exit velocity. He trails only Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Aaron Judge in that category. Additionally, Wood is tied for 10th in the majors with a 93.6 mph average exit velocity, and he sits seventh in the league in barrels (44). He leads all non-Cruz Derby participants in the exit velocity metrics, and he trails only Cal Raleigh in barrels (all metrics per Baseball Savant).

Wood might hit the ball on the ground and to the opposite field a bit too much, but in the Derby, he's going to be incentivized to pull the ball in the air, and is going to put on a show. He has the stature and the batted-ball metrics to back up a claim that he'll have the hardest-hit home run by a player not named Oneil Cruz.

Which side of the plate should Cal Raleigh hit from?

There are plenty of reasons why Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh's involvement in the Home Run Derby is exciting. He's MLB's home run leader, he's a catcher and he's a switch-hitter. He might be the favorite entering the event, and he is also probably the most polarizing candidate, given the fact that he's a big catcher. Whether he'll have enough energy to win the whole thing is a storyline to watch; another one is how Raleigh will choose to hit.

Raleigh hinted at becoming the second player ever to switch-hit during the derby after Adley Rutschman did so in 2023, but he also seems to be leaning toward one particular side of the plate to hit from primarily.

“In talking to some people, obviously right field feels a lot shorter, a lot easier to hit it out,” Raleigh said of Truist Park, which is 335 feet to left field, 385 feet to left-center field, 400 feet to center field, 375 feet to right-center field and 325 feet to right field. “So, I mean, [batting] left is looking pretty promising, yeah. But I mean, I feel like it'd be cool to do both,” Raleigh said.

It makes sense for Raleigh to hit left-handed at Truist Park, a stadium more catered toward success for left-handed sluggers, but it's important to note that the switch-hitter has been far better right-handed this season. He gets many more opportunities to bat left-handed, obviously, but he's hit 22 home runs in 232 at-bats against right-handed pitching, going yard once every 10.5 at-bats. Conversely, he's gone deep 14 times in 96 at-bats right-handed, hitting the ball over the fence once every 6.8 at-bats. You tell me which is better.

Raleigh might be wise to give himself the best chance to succeed with the ballpark's dimensions, but prioritizing his weaker side statistically could come back to haunt him.

How will Byron Buxton hold up in the derby?

The Home Run Derby is extremely fun to watch, but this year's event might not be as fun for Minnesota Twins fans. Yes, their superstar, Byron Buxton, is participating, which is awesome, but how can Twins fans not fear the worst?

Buxton, while supremely talented, has been as injury-prone as any player in the game throughout his career. This is Buxton's ninth full MLB season, excluding his rookie year in 2015 and the shortened 2020 campaign. He's appeared in 100 or more games in just two of those nine seasons. He's on pace to get there in 2025, but with him, you never truly know.

The Home Run Derby is extremely fun to watch, but it requires a ton of effort and energy to compete in. The rules of the derby have undoubtedly led to at least some stars declining invitations, thanks to how strenuous it is.

I'm going to say Buxton will be fine and avoid injury in the Derby, but the odds of him pulling or hurting something are, unfortunately, higher than MLB fans would like to admit.