The trade deadline dust has fully settled, and August is getting set to give way to September. There's the slightest hint of a nip in the air in certain parts of the country. You know what that means: It's almost time for playoff baseball.
Sure, there's still plenty to be decided between now and then. But for the most part, the MLB standings are pretty clear-cut: Barring a run by the Reds or the Royals for a Wild Card spot, it's all about positioning and divisional races from here on out. So, if we know roughly who the teams making the postseason will be, the question becomes: Which of those teams do you trust?
That's become a more difficult question to answer of late, as teams we thought of as heavyweights have recently stumbled a bit. To try and make sense of that chaos, we're here to power rank the 12 current playoff teams by how much we trust them come October.
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12. Houston Astros
On the one hand, you look at the names on this roster and feel like they should be awfully dangerous come playoff time. And the Astros do still enter the weekend atop the AL West thanks to the struggles of the Mariners and Rangers below them in the standings. But this offense is in a bad, bad way right now, and unless Yordan Alvarez immediately returns looking like his old self, it's hard to see that changing any time soon; it's simply too righty-heavy, and there are too many holes. Combine that with a devastating run of pitching injuries — can Hunter Brown keep putting this entire staff on his back? — and it's hard to see Houston capturing its old playoff magic right now.
11. New York Yankees
Similarly, a broad view of the Yankees' season to date should point towards a real shot at repeating as AL champs: They have the best offense in the league by most metrics, as well as the second-best run differential in baseball.
Of course ... good luck telling that to anyone who's watched this team play of late. It seemed like the tide might finally be turning, but then two straight losses to the Boston Red Sox that featured a comedy of walks and errors made clear that this team simply isn't playing serious baseball right now. The talent is there, but for whatever reason, the vibes are extremely off.
10. Seattle Mariners
Seattle appeared to be among the big winners of the trade deadline, but they've struggled of late, losers of seven of 10 entering play on Saturday. The offense hasn't quite taken off as expected, although big acquisition Eugenio Suarez has shown signs of snapping out of his midsummer swoon of late.
All in all, it's hard to really trust this team until we see them score runs on a consistent basis, and Luis Castillo's struggles don't help. But Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo is a heck of a postseason trio; don't take Seattle lightly, especially if the bats wake up.
9. New York Mets
The offense is finally waking up for the Mets, hitting like we all thought they would at the start of the season. Even if that's here to stay, though ... do we really trust this pitching staff to get it done in October? Even with regular off days helping mitigate the lack of real starter depth, it's asking a lot of guys like Clay Holmes, David Peterson and rookie Nolan McLean, and premier bullpen pickup Ryan Helsley looks downright lost right now.
Of course, it would surprise no one if Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso put the team on their backs. I just have too many questions about how Carlos Mendoza is going to piece together enough outs, especially considering that New York will likely start in the Wild Card series.
8. San Diego Padres
The Padres are in many ways Mets West: A star-studded offense that has only intermittently hit like it, and a rotation that's looking a little too thin right now due to injury. Michael King landing back on the IL certainly doesn't help, and while Nick Pivetta has been sensational, it's hard to trust guys like Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish on the biggest stage.
AJ Preller's deadline did everything it could to give San Diego a shot at its first NL pennant since 1998. The lineup is far deeper and more dangerous, and the best bullpen in baseball will sure help in October. Overall, though, I'm not sure about the rotation, and I need to see more consistency from guys like Fernando Tatis Jr.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
Don't underestimate the Jays. Sure, the lineup doesn't have as many big names as the teams around them (or even behind them) on this list, especially given the hamstring injury to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But they're getting contributions from all sorts of unexpected places, and if Shane Bieber's Toronto debut is any indication of what he can be down the stretch, suddenly this pitching staff feels loaded for bear.
Bieber, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer, with Jose Berrios and Eric Lauer waiting in the wings and Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Dominguez at the back end? That'll play in a wide-open AL.
6. Detroit Tigers
All of a sudden, they've let the Tigers get hot. Does Detroit have enough offensive oomph to break through and improve on last year's ALDS finish? That remains to be seen: Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling are significant losses, and the Tigers will need big contributions from guys like Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson and Zach McKinstry down the stretch.
But they're going to nab one of the top two seeds in the league in all likelihood, and they have Tarik Skubal anchoring the pitching staff. If Jack Flaherty and Charlie Morton can keep pitching well, why can't they recapture their 2024 magic? Plus, getting to throw Skubal two or three times sure helps.
5. Boston Red Sox
This is perhaps a bit aggressive for a team that currently doesn't even lead its own division, but hear me out here. Roman Anthony is the absolute truth, Alex Bregman is back in the swing of things and Nathaniel Lowe may have just patched the team's biggest lineup hole. Boston's bats will wind up in a good-enough place, which means that how far they'll go in October likely comes down to pitching.
I'm bullish on that front, largely due to Brayan Bello's recent excellent run of form. Throwing Crochet and Bello four or even five times in a seven-game series is big, and Lucas Giolito and Dustin May behind them should be good enough. If Justin Slaten returns to supplement Aroldis Chapman at the back of the bullpen, look out; the confidence is very high right now.
4. Chicago Cubs
Maybe I'm crazy, but I just can't shake the feeling that eventually this offense is going to start hitting like it did over the first half of the season. These players are just too good, and Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong both homering in Friday's win over the Angels is a great sign.
If that does happen, then suddenly I'm not sure there's a better bet to come out of the NL, with all due respect to the Brewers. Tucker, PCA, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Owen Caissie, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Matt Shaw offer very few landing spots for opposing pitchers, and a lack of pitching depth matters less when you have built-in off days and can lean on Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. Too many question marks to put them any higher, especially in the bullpen, but the ceiling is sky-high.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
As much as I still believe in the Cubs, I have to respect what Milwaukee has done of late. This is a deep and very athletic group of position players, one that plays very fundamentally sound baseball, and they're supported by a hard-throwing bullpen and a starting rotation that oozes potential.
Growing pains were always coming for Jacob Misiorowski, but I think he'll find his command again and let his stuff shine. Combine that with Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jose Quintana and Quinn Priester, and there's no shortage of options for Pat Murphy to mix and match with. I get the skepticism given the lack of overall star power and how many times we've watched this team flame out in October, but they don't beat themselves and have depth all over the place. I'm buying in.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
They would probably be at No. 1 if Zack Wheeler's health were less of a question mark. As it is, though, they still have Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez (and Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker and maybe Andrew Painter), and suddenly this offense has roared back to life.
Maybe this is just a hot stretch; presumably Trea Turner and JT Realmuto won't stay this hot forever. We've been waiting for this from this group for a while, though, and I'm still going to bet on an offense with Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper at the top of it. Not having Jose Alvarado for the playoffs hurts, but this bullpen feels much more stable (and much less reliant on Jordan Romano) than it did just a few weeks ago, and all the other ingredients are here.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Admittedly, this has as much to do with the uncertainty of the teams around them as it does with the Dodgers themselves. But the pitchers are getting healthy at the right time; Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Clayton Kershaw all look like they'll be raring to go by October, which is as good as anybody in the league, while reinforcements are coming soon to the bullpen. And really, are you going to bet against an offense with this much proven production?
The Michael Conforto conundrum is a frustrating one, but it'll matter less when Tommy Edman and Co. return from the IL. Max Muncy should be back soon, too, and it won't be too long until the Dodgers once again have a buzzsaw one through nine. The champs stay the champs until proven otherwise.