The MLB offseason isn't over, but with few impactful players still available both in free agency and on the trade market, we have a pretty good idea of which teams are best set up to compete in 2026. Many of the teams that excelled in 2025, like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees, figure to have another big year. But what about the teams that did not perform well last season?
If history is any guide, we're bound to see some bounce-backs. Based on how their rosters look as of this writing, here are the teams best positioned to rebound in 2026 among those that missed the playoffs in 2025.
Houston Astros
2025 record: 87-75, 2nd in AL West
The Houston Astros didn't have a bad year by any means in 2025, but their 87-75 record was their worst in a full season (excluding 2020) since 2014, which also happened to be the last time they missed the playoffs. There are three reasons to believe in a bounce-back in 2026.
First, they're bound to have better injury luck. Yordan Alvarez was limited to just 48 games. Isaac Paredes missed 60. Cristian Javier made only eight starts. Second, they're bound to have some players who struggled bounce back. Is Christian Walker really going to have a .660 OPS again? Is Yainer Diaz really going to be a below-average hitter again? Is Cam Smith not going to make a meaningful leap in his second year? Is Jesus Sanchez really going to put up a .611 OPS again? Third, and perhaps most importantly, look at the moves their division rivals have made.
Team | Biggest Addition(s) |
|---|---|
Seattle Mariners | Josh Naylor, Jose A. Ferrer |
Texas Rangers | Brandon Nimmo, MacKenzie Gore |
Athletics | Jeff McNeil |
Los Angeles Angels | Grayson Rodriguez, Josh Lowe |
I'm not sure whether any team in this division is considerably better. The Athletics and Angels have fiddled around the margins. The Texas Rangers traded for Brandon Nimmo, who should help improve their lineup, but subtracting Marcus Semien's glove and leadership is bound to hurt. MacKenzie Gore should really improve their starting rotation, but can they really count on Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi to stay healthy? As for the Seattle Mariners, sure, their bullpen is better and re-signing Josh Naylor was key. But the team also lost Jorge Polanco and could very well lose Eugenio Suarez, too. That lineup doesn't look nearly as deep as it did in 2025.
I'm not in love with the Astros' offseason either, but with better luck and players reverting to their previous forms, why can't this team make some noise in a wide-open AL West?
New York Mets
2025 record: 83-79, 2nd in NL East
The New York Mets' offseason was trending towards disastrous before David Stearns woke up and chose violence. It'll be weird watching a Mets team without Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz on it, but there's also reason to believe this new-look club is going to get to the playoffs after the 2025 team collapsed its way out of the field.
Most of this optimism comes from the team's new-look rotation.
Mets Projected 2026 Rotation | Mets 2025 Start Leaders |
|---|---|
1. Freddy Peralta | 1. Clay Holmes (31) |
2. Nolan McLean | 2. David Peterson (30) |
3. Clay Holmes | 3. Kodai Senga (22) |
4. David Peterson | 4. Griffin Canning (16) |
5. Kodai Senga | 5. Tylor Megill (14) |
6. Sean Manaea | 6. Sean Manaea (12) |
It's night and day. Freddy Peralta is the ace the Mets have lacked for years. Nolan McLean could easily be the NL Rookie of the Year in 2026 after what he showed down the stretch last season. Those two will lead the way after combining to make just eight starts for the team in 2025. Guys like Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga suddenly like true bounce-back options instead of the co-aces they were miscast as in 2025. Adding in high-end depth pieces like Jonah Tong and Christian Scott makes this rotation even more exciting.
I don't know whether their lineup is going to be better than it was in 2025, but the trio of Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Jr. is bound to at least be as good as Alonso, Nimmo and Jeff McNeil were. Leads might not feel as safe in the ninth with Diaz gone, but adding Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and healthy seasons from Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter is bound to make the 'pen as good, if not better, than it was in 2025.
It took a while to come together, but there's a lot to be excited about in Queens.
Kansas City Royals
2025 record: 82-80, 2nd in AL Central
The Kansas City Royals missed the playoffs despite posting the third-best rotation ERA in the American League. What if I told you that starting rotation could be even better, now that Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are healthy and Noah Cameron is set to pitch in his first full season? Not only can their rotation be even better, but their lineup should be too.
The Royals have stars to build around in Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino, and it's hard not to like the odds of the players around them bouncing back. Jac Caglianone should hit better now that he's acclimated to the bigs. Jonathan India had a brutal 2025, but is a talented hitter who should at least provide a reasonable floor at second base. Rookie sensation Carter Jensen should provide a spark, as he did in his cup of coffee down the stretch last season. Their outfield, in particular, should improve with the additions of Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins.
Royals OF wRC+ | Lane Thomas Career wRC+ | Isaac Collins Career wRC+ |
|---|---|---|
73 | 99 | 117 |
Thomas and Collins aren't the flashiest additions, and they shouldn't rule out another lineup addition if that's at all possible, but they're far better than the outfielders the Royals had in 2025. The lineup should be deeper, and pairing that with an elite rotation should lead to more wins in 2026.
Atlanta Braves
2025 record: 76-86, 3rd in NL East
The Atlanta Braves were one of MLB's most disappointing teams last season, but a lot of their struggles can be pinned on injuries. Only five position players played 130+ games for Atlanta in 2025, and four of them had down years. Bryce Elder led the team with 28 starts, and he wasn't even supposed to make their Opening Day rotation.
Injuries can happen at any time, but they're bound to have better luck in that regard, right? Assuming they do, the Braves have a lineup consisting of Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley and Matt Olson, and a rotation which includes Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider. How is that not a playoff team, especially when considering the offseason moves they've made?
Braves Offseason Additions | Position |
|---|---|
Raisel Iglesias | RP |
Mauricio Dubon | INF/OF |
Mike Yastrzemski | OF |
Robert Suarez | RP |
Ha-Seong Kim | SS |
Ha-Seong Kim's unlucky injury hurts, but the Braves have greatly improved all of their previous weaknesses. Kim, when healthy, is the starting-caliber shortstop the Braves had previously lacked. Dubon is as good a utility player as there is. Mike Yastrzemski greatly improves their bench and outfield depth. Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez will form one of the best late-game reliever duos in the National League.
The Braves could still use another starting pitcher for depth purposes, but their bench and bullpen are much better than they were in previous years. If this team can stay even remotely healthy, watch out.
Baltimore Orioles
2025 record, 75-87, 5th in AL East
I can understand if you don't love the Baltimore Orioles guaranteeing five years to Alonso in free agency. I can understand if you don't love trading four years of Grayson Rodriguez for one year of Taylor Ward. I can understand if you thought Mike Elias gave up too much for a mercurial righty in Shane Baz. All of these concerns might be realized in the future, but what can't really be debated is that the Orioles appear poised to be much better in 2026 than they were in 2025.
Alonso is one of the premier home run hitters in the game and Ward quietly hit 36 of his own in 2025. The Orioles, a team that already ranked 11th in home runs in 2025, should hit for even more power in 2026. And assuming guys like Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman can stay healthier, this offense should score many more runs overall.
The improvements they seem likely to make on the pitching side are notable as well. Trevor Rogers might not be a sub-2.00 ERA guy like he was in 2025, but there's reason to believe that if he's able to make 30+ starts, he'll finish this season with a bWAR higher than the 3.3 mark he put up last season. Kyle Bradish is another guy I'm high on in the front of their rotation. Baz's ERA approached 5.00 last season, but it's impossible to ignore his home/road splits.
Baz Home ERA | Baz Road ERA |
|---|---|
5.90 | 3.86 |
Getting him away from pitching at a Minor League park half the time will be a great thing, and if he can stay healthy, Baz has the stuff to be a true impact arm. Oh yeah, and the O's might add Framber Valdez too.
Who knows how these moves will age in the future, but for 2026, the Orioles should be much better. And even in a brutally tough AL East, they've got a shot to get back to the postseason.
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