How the Astros went from kings of the AL to full-on crisis in 6 mistakes

It ended in frustrating fashion, but the 2023 season saw the Houston Astros make the ALCS for a seventh straight year. That kind of dynastic success, which also saw the Astros win a pair of World Series titles, is rare and is what makes their sudden downfall since then that much more shocking.

Houston made the postseason in 2024 but was swept out of the Wild Card Series by the Detroit Tigers. The Astros won 87 games in 2025 but missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Now, they sit at 8-12 on the year, tied for last place in the AL West. Their roster was flawed to begin with, and they're now dealing with a bevy of starting pitching injuries. It's too early to say they can't make it back to October this season, but the odds of them going on another deep postseason run in 2026 or really anytime soon feel incredibly slim. Here's how Houston went from owning the AL to a team on the verge of a rebuild.

Poor drafting

It feels like the beginning of the end began once the drafting went sideways. The Astros built their dynasty by drafting well. Yes, they had early picks thanks to their rebuild in the early 2010s, but that doesn't guarantee anything. They deserve credit for drafting the likes of George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr., Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker in a four-year span, all in the first round. Since then, the first-round drafting has been nightmarish.

It's as bad as it looks. Not a single one of these players has made any sort of impact for the Astros. Even Forrest Whitley, an extremely highly-touted pitching prospect, never had much success in Houston. It's possible that Brice Matthews, Walter Janek or Xavier Neyens can develop into something, but it's too early to tell.

Now, whiffing on draft picks doesn't mean as much in MLB as it does in other sports, and the Astros have hit on some later picks (Hunter Brown, Jeremy Pena, Spencer Arrighetti, Jake Meyers) but for the most part, it's been bad.

When you don't draft well, that makes it awfully tough to build a strong farm system. When you don't have a strong farm system, it's hard to field a consistent winner, especially when you can't spend your way out of your issues. The Astros didn't have enough in the pipeline to improve their roster internally or via trade.

The Jim Crane offseason

Sports fans can't stand when owners meddle, and for good reason. Their purpose is to hire the right people and to give said people the resources necessary to field a winner. Astros owner Jim Crane, though, likes to be involved, and was way too involved in the 2022 offseason. Despite making it to the World Series in 2022, Crane and GM James Click parted ways, leaving Houston without a GM. Instead of waiting to hire a replacement, Crane took it upon himself to make a couple of disastrous moves.

The first move saw Crane sign Rafael Montero to a three-year, $34.5 million extension. Now, Montero was a key piece for Houston in 2022 and had pitched well for them ever since the team acquired him in 2021, but his track record was anything but spotless. Sure enough, Montero had a 4.94 ERA in 109 appearances covering the first two years of the deal, and was DFA'd midway through the 2024 campaign. Houston kept him around, and Montero did appear in three games for the team in 2025, but they traded him to the Atlanta Braves while eating most of the contract. The Astros gave him over $30 million to produce -0.8 fWAR for them.

As if that wasn't bad enough, the Astros signed Jose Abreu to a three-year, $58.5 million deal just a couple of weeks later. Now, this move made more sense, as the Astros had a glaring hole at first base, but handing a hefty three-year deal to a soon-to-be 36-year-old was a clear risk, and one that backfired spectacularly. Abreu slashed .217/.275/.351 with 20 home runs and 97 RBI in parts of two seasons with the team before he was DFA'd and released. He didn't even last half of his second season in Houston, and amassed -2.0 fWAR during his Astros tenure.

I'm not here to say Dana Brown's Astros tenure has been perfect — I honestly think it's featured more bad than good — but it wasn't this. There's a reason owners aren't GMs. Crane's blunders set this franchise back, as not only did they sign bad players, they spent a lot of money on said players, impacting their ability to acquire actual needle-movers.

The Josh Hader signing

The Astros shocked the MLB world when they, seemingly out of nowhere, signed Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million deal in the 2023 offseason. The record-setting contract itself wasn't awful for one of the best relievers on the planet, and the Hader addition gave Houston the best bullpen in the league on paper at the time, but it was eye-opening that this team gave that player who plays that position that contract.

Part of the issue with this deal is that Hader is a reliever. I'm not going to say he didn't deserve this contract, but relievers can be volatile. Astros fans have seen this with Hader, who had a very rocky first year in Houston but was then superb when healthy in 2025. Even if Hader was consistently dominant, that means, what 70-75 innings annually? They'll be dominant innings, but there's only so much value one-inning relievers can bring to a team. I mean, what if the rest of the team isn't good - there won't be many leads to protect.

A bigger part of the issue is that the Astros are a team with very clear budgetary restraints. They've lost George Springer, Carlos Correa, Framber Valdez and Alex Bregman to free agency. They traded Kyle Tucker before losing him as a free agent. This isn't to say the Astros haven't spent, but they clearly don't have unlimited funds. Why give $95 million of the very limited dollars you do have over a five-year period to a reliever?

It'd be one thing for a big market giant like the Dodgers or Mets to do this. It's another for an Astros team with limitations to do this. Couldn't that $95 million have gone towards paying a free agent at a more impactful position like Valdez or Bregman?

Hader has met expectations when healthy for the most part, but it feels like the Astros could've spent this money on a more valuable player.

The Justin Verlander trade

The Astros re-acquired Justin Verlander at the 2023 trade deadline, hoping to win the World Series. They came close, getting to Game 7 of the ALCS, with Verlander mostly pitching well, but they fell short of their goal and ultimately never got back to the Fall Classic with Verlander on their roster. Verlander stuck around for 2024 but had a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts.

Now, the trade itself wasn't awful. It made sense for Houston to make an all-in move, even for an older player, and it's not as if Drew Gilbert or Ryan Clifford has done much of anything in the majors yet. With that being said, Clifford, in particular, is a fringe top-100 prospect with clear upside, and it feels like they just could've gotten more value than they did for these players.

Gilbert was traded for a premier late-game reliever in Tyler Rogers at the 2025 trade deadline, and Clifford could be the Mets' first baseman of the future or an impactful trade piece in his own right. Had Houston kept them, they could've had Gilbert fill a very clear weakness in their outfield, and Clifford would probably be their No. 1 prospect.

This deal particularly stings because of the lack of young talent Houston has. These were two of their top prospects, and the deal didn't get them to a World Series or a young player to build around. That's a shame.

The Carlos Correa trade

It made all the sense in the world for the Astros to acquire a third baseman at the 2025 trade deadline with Isaac Paredes suffering what, at the time, was described as a season-ending injury, but Carlos Correa never felt like a realistic option because he had several additional years of control. Even assuming the options at the end of his deal don't vest, Correa is under contract through 2028. For that reason, it was shocking that the Astros did, in fact, bring him back to Houston.

Now, the trade itself wasn't bad at all. The Astros didn't give up much of anything to acquire Correa, and even got the Minnesota Twins to send $30 million to cover some of his salary, but the Astros still owe Correa a little over $60 million through the 2028 season. Is he worth that?

It's cool to see him back in Houston, but Correa is not the player he once was. He had a .734 OPS in 2025 and has a .741 OPS in 2026. He's a rock-solid defender, and an above-average hitter, at least for now, but I'm not sure he's worth the money, even with Minnesota eating a chunk of it, and that's especially the case for this team.

The budgetary constraints they have are why they let Correa walk to begin with. Now, Correa is on a team that already has Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker in the infield and a couple of clear outfield vacancies. They'll probably end up trading Paredes for an outfielder or a pitcher just to make the team fit better, but I'd argue Paredes is a more impactful player right now than Correa.

The Correa fit is weird, his contract is not cheap, and I haven't even mentioned his obvious durability concerns. It would've made more sense to trade for a rental or at least acquire someone cheaper. There's no denying that his price tag impacts what Houston can do to improve in other areas, and again, they didn't even need him after 2025.

Lack of extensions

One way to extend championship windows is by getting players to sign extensions, for obvious reasons. It ensures players will stick around in their primes, and that's almost always a good thing. Unfortunately, though, the Astros have not done much of anything in this area.

I don't necessarily blame them for not getting deals done with their previous crop of stars knowing how expensive those deals would've been and the fact that early extensions are a lot more common now. I am going to blame the organization for their lack of foresight in getting deals done on their current roster.

Jeremy Pena is only under contract through 2027, and there's a good chance they'll lose him to free agency. Hunter Brown is under control through 2028, and he's probably priced himself out of Houston's range. Even Cam Smith, a player with just one year of MLB experience, is off to such a strong start in 2026 that he might be pricing himself out of Houston's long-term plans.

They've been able to extend Jose Altuve and deserve credit for making him a lifelong Astro. A couple of other deals have gotten done as well. Still, failing to get deals done with the likes of Pena, Brown and probably Smith will make it even harder for an Astros team lacking much in terms of young talent both in the majors and minors to improve in the years to come.

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