Ranking last-place MLB teams by their chances of still winning the division

It's early in the season, which means a few MLB teams are dramatically underperforming expectations. And while it's only natural for fans to react strongly to the evidence in front of them, it's much too early to press the panic button.

There are eight teams in last place (or tied for last place) as of right now. Let's rank each of them by the odds of a first-place turnaround:

8. Colorado Rockies

With all due respect to the Colorado Rockies, a team competing well above its means despite a poor record, there's zero chance in hell this team topples the Dodgers in 2026 — or in the next five-to-10 years, if we're being honest.

Colorado has found some real offensive production from places expected (Mickey Moniak) and unexpected (TJ Rumfield), with more room for growth once Charlie Condon and other top prospects earn their Major League call-up. Even Tomoyuki Sugano is ballin' on the mound.

There just is not enough proven talent on this ultra-cheap roster to gain meaningful headway in such a competitive division, especially when the Padres and Diamondbacks are Wild Card-caliber teams on top of L.A.'s standard dominance.

7. Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are once again completely inept at the plate. Nobody aside from Munetaka Murakami can generate any sort of consistent offense right now. The call-up of Sam Antonacci, plus the eventual returns of Brooks Baldwin, Austin Hays and Kyle Teel promise future improvement, but not close to enough to win the AL Central.

This isn't exactly a top-heavy division — more middle-heavy — but the White Sox lack the star-power and consistency necessary to mount a run. There's plenty to be excited about between Murakami's slugging and Noah Schultz's recent promotion to the MLB rotation, but the Southsiders are a year or two way from any serious contention. And that's assuming a lot breaks right for what is historically one of MLB's most mismanaged clubs.

A lot of fun pieces here, but the puzzle won't be solved any time soon.

6. Houston Astros

It's not too early to write off the Rockies or White Sox. It is too early to write off the next six last-place teams. We're 18 games into the season — a drop in the bucket. That should help quell the mounting frustration for Houston Astros fans, despite their club's precipitous fall from grace.

The Astros are stuck in injury purgatory right now. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier and Tatsuya Imai are all on the IL already and the rotation is in shambles. As for Imai, Houston's most consequential offseason addition, he just looks completely lost right now. There is still time for him to settle in, but the Astros' pitchers simply cannot support what is still, on paper, a potent lineup.

Yordan Álvarez is putting up MVP numbers and Houston's lineup still features a rare blend of star-power and October experience. This team absolutely has the mental fortitude to weather the storm. It helps that the AL West is hardly a murderer's row of opponents. That said, unless Houston can unearth a real solution or two on the mound, it will be hard to catch up to the A's and Rangers, two rock-solid teams. Especially if the Mariners wake up (more on that soon).

5. New York Mets

The second-most expensive roster in MLB is once again stuck in a massive slump. Juan Soto's early-season calf injury certainly has not helped. The New York Mets' two major offseason additions, Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco, are deeply on the struggle bus. Francisco Lindor, typically so dependent in the leadoff spot, has a .577 OPS and 71 wRC+.

The bright side? Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean are one of the nastiest one-two rotational punches in baseball. The Mets have their aces; Clay Holmes looks solid enough and better days are ahead for Kodai Senga, assuming he can stay healthy. Once Soto comes back and the Mets' stars experience their inevitable positive regression, New York will start to climb back up in the standings.

What, the bad news now? The Braves look awesome — like, the World Series-caliber awesome of yore. The rotation has settled in remarkably well despite a slew of injuries, with Spencer Strider's return imminent. That lineup is as bulletproof as it's been in a while. If the Braves are finally healthy, and if the Phillies' elite arms start to experience better luck, the Mets will face serious competition all season long. Plus... after last season, it's a bit difficult to trust New York's mental fortitude.

4. Boston Red Sox

You couldn't script a much worse start to the campaign for the Boston Red Sox, especially when expectations were so high coming into the year. The Garrett Crochet notwithstanding, it's hard to find a clear win for Craig Breslow and the front office over the last couple years. Boston's primary additions this offseason — Caleb Durbin at third base, Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez on the mound — are really stinking it up.

It does not help that the AL East is such a competitive division. New York's lineup won't remain cold for very long; the Rays and the O's, while not built in the traditional mold of a contender, are both scrappy teams. The Rays in particular feel like the real deal right now. Even Boston's fellow basement-dweller is a threat. We all remember where the Blue Jays were in October: a blown save away from eternal glory.

All that said, an optimist's perspective tells us Garrett Crochet won't give up 10 earned runs in a game very often. Gray and Suárez, though imperfect in their "old" age, have too much pedigree to bet against some sort of revival. Plus, it's hard to imagine Durbin is this bad after a third-place NL Rookie of the Year finish last season. The Red Sox need to get more from Marcelo Mayer and Trevor Story, and maybe even go out of their way to find a consistent role for Masataka Yoshida. But the Red Sox still have time. The Yankees and Blue Jays are lagging enough to keep the window of opportunity open.

3. Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays were the clear-cut best team in the American League by the end of last season. Their blend of talent and discipline at the plate, combined with a deep rotation and a functional-enough bullpen, put the Blue Jays within an out of the World Series title. So Toronto's ice-cold start to the year comes as a mild surprise.

Toronto is another team on this list decimated by injuries. George Springer, Addison Barger and Alejandro Kirk are cornerstone bats currently out of commission. On the pitching front, Cody Ponce is done for the season, while Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage remain on the rehab train. The Jays just need to get a semi-full roster on the field at some point.

That said, it's hard not to express faith in the Jays after last season. There is comfort in the fact that Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease look every bit the part of back-to-back aces atop the rotation, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is swinging the bat an awful lot like he did in October. The Jays will get healthier and build momentum eventually. Do not count them out, especially with New York and the aforementioned Boston also mired in slumps to begin the year.

2. Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs are the only .500 team on this list, which counts for something (if not much this early in the campaign). We know the Cubs are built for the postseason after Jed Hoyer spent real money on what was already a Wild Card team. In terms of pure talent, the Cubs still stand above the crowd here. Chicago is notably a plus-19 in run differential, so their record feels misleading.

There are a couple ways to look at the NL Central. The Cubs are only 1.5 games behind first-place Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, neither of whom are established contenders. On the other hand, it does feel like this division is shaping up to be a real bloodbath. The Pirates added major bats in the offseason, Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt have the Cardinals on an accelerated ascent, and Cincy has maybe the best rotation in the National League.

Chicago's issues so far are predictable. Alex Bregman has been slow out of the gate. The rotation is all sorts of beat-up and Justin Steele's return is still a while out. That said, the Cubs will get more from Bregman and especially Michael Busch, whose .434 OPS is such an obvious early-season mirage. Shōta Imanaga is on an absolute heater, while Edward Cabrera is teasing the sort of leap Cubs fans dreamed of. With such a tight-knit field, there's room for the Cubs to climb once their bats heat up. Especially if Pete Crow-Armstong remembers how to elevate and pull.

1. Seattle Mariners

Before Toronto took L.A. down to the wire in the World Series, the Seattle Mariners gave the Blue Jays a run for their money in the ALCS. Besides the Cubs, Seattle is the only last-place team with a positive run differential (plus-7) so far this season. The AL West is also wide open, especially if you're comfortable fading the Astros. The A's are a wonderful story, but it's hard to trust their pitching over a 162-game season.

It's not hard to see the explosion coming for Seattle. Their five through nine hitters (and Brendan Donovan in the leadoff spot) all have a wRC+ north of 100 right now. The only stragglers are the two through four hitters: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor. All All-Star talents, and in Raleigh's case, a reigning MVP runner-up. The Mariners' core bats will come around eventually.

Seattle also has arguably the best rotation, on paper, in the American League. Emerson Hancock has revitalized his approach and is looking like a breakout candidate. Better days are ahead for Luis Castillo, who has been knocked around a bit, but whose underlying metrics point in a more positive direction. If he is the Mariners' weak link in the rotation, yeah, they'll be just fine.

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