The calendar is about to turn to September, the final mad dash of the MLB regular season. And while most attention is understandably on which teams are going to make or miss out on the playoffs, that's far from the only thing that's still to be decided this year.
There's also the matter of handing out some year-end awards, most notably the MVP, Cy Young winner and Rookie of the Year in each league. And while there are certainly frontrunners who have emerged, nothing is set in stone just yet. There are still performances to evaluate and debates to be had — debates that, as is the norm now, will likely require some advanced stats to help settle. Here's one for each race to keep an eye on over the season's final few weeks.
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AL MVP: Catcher Framing Runs
I outlined the statistical comparison between Raleigh and Judge in greater detail here. Long story short: Judge has been significantly more valuable at the plate this season, but that edge is basically wiped out by the extra value that Raleigh brings both on the bases and, most importantly, behind the plate, where he once again grades out as well above average overall.
If you're on Raleigh's side in this debate, that's likely the biggest reason why: Sure, his slash line might not measure up to Judge's, but he's doing it while playing the most demanding (and arguably most important) position on the field on a daily basis. And the reason he's so valuable back there is because of his ability to frame pitches: Baseball Savant has him in the 85th percentile in their framing score, which essentially measures how many borderline strikes he secures for his pitchers.
Raleigh also controls the running game well, but his pitch-by-pitch contributions to his team are the primary driver behind him pulling more or less even with Judge in catch-all stats like fWAR despite Judge's offensive advantage. If he does win, voter fatigue (and his eye-popping homer total) will have something to do with it, but framing will be the unsung hero.
NL MVP: fWAR
Shohei Ohtani has been considered the frontrunner here for a while now, but as Kyle Schwarber keeps blasting balls out of the ballpark, there's been a growing movement to push the Philadelphia Phillies slugger into the driver's seat.
One look at the underlying stats, though, should show just how silly that is. FanGraphs' WAR calculation takes into account a player's total offensive, defensive and baserunning contributions to arrive at an encapsulation of his overall value. Both Ohtani and Schwarber, as DHs all year, are operating from behind the eight-ball here — although Ohtani getting back into the swing of things on the mound of late threatens to change that.
The key difference is that Ohtani has been the best hitter in the NL this year, hands down: His 168 wRC+ leads Schwarber in second place by a full 10 points. That extra value is enough to overcome his lack of defense, which is why he leads the National League in fWAR over Schwarber's teammate Trea Turner. Schwarber, on the other hand, has been great on offense but not great enough, ranking just ninth in the NL in fWAR. He's an undeniably awesome hitter, but his inability to add value anywhere else leaves him a step behind in this race.
AL Cy Young: K-BB%
Protestations of Boston Red Sox fans to the contrary, this has been Tarik Skubal's award to lose for a while now. You can look at more traditional stats like ERA and WHIP (both of which the Detroit Tigers lefty leads the league in), but if you want a clear idea of what makes Skubal a cut above his competition, let's hone in on the two things that a pitcher has absolute control over: how many batters he strikes out and how many batters he walks.
Really, the rest is subject to statistical noise, from the defense behind you to the ballpark you're in to just plain old bad luck. And here's where Skubal's true greatness becomes all too obvious. It would be one thing to just lead the AL in strikeout rate, which he does at 33.5% (ahead of Crochet at 31.1%). But Skubal isn't just the league's most overwhelming pitcher; he also has its second-lowest walk rate, just a fraction behind former Tampa Bay Rays (and now-Cincinnati Reds) pitcher Zack Littell. It should be impossible to miss that many bats while pounding the strike zone that much, and yet that's exactly what Skubal's done. There's no one else like him right now, for as amazing as Crochet has been.
NL Cy Young: SIERA
Similarly, the NL Cy Young Award has been all but handed to Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes. But is that a bit premature? Say hello to SIERA, which stands for Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average. Essentially, it's a way to try and make ERA even more accurate by eliminating factors the pitcher can't control, accounting for not just things like strikeouts, walks and home runs but also the quality of contact on balls put into play. Because while a K is the best possible outcome, there's a whole body of evidence which tells us that ground balls (or balls hit weakly) are far more likely to result in outs than balls hit in the air (or hit hard).
And would you believe that Skenes isn't actually in first place here? That belongs to Zack Wheeler, whose unfortunate injury has knocked him out of the running. But dead even with the Pirates righty is Wheeler's teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, who's quietly putting up a pretty convincing Cy Young case. His ERA lags more than a half-run behind, and Skenes' WHIP is considerably better (0.94 vs. 1.13), but when it comes to doing the things necessary to suppress baserunners and runs, Sanchez is as good as there is in the league right now. It'll take a lot for Skenes to lose his lead in the more traditional stats (as well as the eye test), but don't count Sanchez out entirely; he forces as many grounders as anyone, and his changeup might be the best in the sport (non-Skubal division).
AL Rookie of the Year: HR/FB%
This seemed like it might be Roman Anthony's award to lose, but then Nick Kurtz started hitting homers ... and basically hasn't stopped since. Kurtz leads all AL rookies in fWAR by a whopping margin, largely thanks to his .634 slugging percentage and 27 homers in just 93 games. The A's first baseman has been on a tear from basically the moment he made his debut, even hitting four homers in a game against the Astros earlier this summer.
But while Anthony just keeps on getting better for the Red Sox, could Kurtz be in for some regression soon? Some signs, at least, point to yes. For starters, his near-30% K rate suggests he's almost certainly not the .300 hitter he's been so far; his .394 BABIP is astronomically high for a first baseman who hits the ball in the air as often as he does and is sure to come back down. And speaking of balls in the air: An incredible 29.7% of Kurtz's fly balls have been homers this year, which would place him fourth in all of baseball if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Maybe Kurtz really is the next Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge, but odds are more likely that this notoriously fluky stat comes back down to Earth.
And if it does, then Anthony might have a path to winning this award yet. He'll be the one playing in meaningful games in September, after all, and he's the more well-rounded player, the former top prospect in baseball who is taking quality at-bats well beyond his years. If you asked me to pick which player would have the better performance over the next few weeks, I'm taking Anthony.
NL Rookie of the Year: xwOBA
The NL Rookie of the Year, meanwhile, is a three-man race, with Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Isaac Collins battling Chicago Cubs righty Cade Horton and Atlanta Braves catcher/DH Drake Baldwin. Given that Baldwin frustratingly hasn't been an everyday player with Sean Murphy and Marcell Ozuna soaking up plate appearances, it feels like he'll be the odd man out. And if we're looking between Collins and Horton, the latter might have a slight edge.
Collins has been a revelation for Milwaukee, getting on base a ton and fitting right into the Brewers' small-ball ethos. But it's also worth noting that he's gotten pretty lucky in his rookie year: There's a sizable gap between his wOBA (weighted on-base average, a fancier form of OPS) and his expected wOBA, largely thanks to an inflated .339 BABIP. If that number comes down (and it should, as Collins' batted-ball data isn't great) then it could create space for Horton, who's throwing the ball awfully well for the Cubs right now. Collins isn't a great defender or baserunner; if his OPS craters down the stretch and Horton continues to win games for Chicago, that could decide this battle.