The Toronto Blue Jays officially eliminated the New York Yankees on Wednesday behind another stupendous Vladimir Guerrero Jr. performance and a solid all-around bullpen effort. The Yankees fought tooth-and-nail for the AL East crown during the regular season, but Toronto narrowly escaped with the No. 1 overall seed. It seems to have paid off.
This comes after the Yankees sent the Boston Red Sox packing in the AL Wild Card, which gives us a good sense of the divisional hierarchy entering the winter. The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles fell short of the postseason, but neither team is going away. The AL East should be just as competitive in 2026, if not more so. There are five very talented teams in this division, all of which could get better in a hurry.
For the first time in a while, Toronto will be the organization with a target on its back. Every AL East team will enter the offseason wondering what it takes to catch the Blue Jays and claim the division. That's not to say the Blue Jays can't get better — Ross Atkins is always aggressive in free agency — but the onus is on Toronto's enemies to make up ground.
In an attempt to be somewhat realistic — the Orioles aren't spending $400 million on Kyle Tucker — here is a dream free agent target for all four AL East non-winners.
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Baltimore Orioles: LHP Ranger Suárez
The Orioles typically don't shell out significant long-term contracts. Ranger Suárez will push for a deal closer to Max Fried than Zach Eflin. Whether he can approach that number, however, remains to be seen: There are plenty of quality pitchers on the market this winter, and Suárez figures to take a back seat to the likes of Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez.
We did see the O's break with convention and trade for Corbin Burnes in 2024. While their subsequent inability to re-sign him was disappointing, it's not like the O's made no effort. New ownership has, in theory, given president Mike Elias more freedom to test the limits in free agency. Suárez should be affordable relative to his talent and no team needs an ace more than Baltimore.
This was an uneven campaign for Suárez, in part due to injuries, but he was lights-out before the All-Star break and he just threw five innings of one-hit, one-run baseball against the Dodgers in the NLDS with Philadelphia's backs against the wall. Suárez historically dominates in the postseason, which is where the O's want to be a year from now. He's effortlessly poised, completely unflappable even in high-pressure situations. The Orioles could use the stability Suárez brings atop a rotation.
If Baltimore can get Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish back healthy while bringing in Suárez, that team starts to shape up awfully well on paper. We're only a year removed from Baltimore winning 91 games and two years removed from winning 101. It's time to put their chips on the table and go for it.
Tampa Bay Rays: C JT Realmuto
The Rays tend to tiptoe around free agency and execute their major changes via trade or internal promotion. Tampa has an excellent farm system, especially when it comes to developing pitchers, and the offensive core appears rock-solid. Junior Caminero hit 45 home runs in his first full season. Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe can all mash. The Rays also finished last season with a plus-48 run differential, despite a 77-85 record.
Tampa is better than you think. But still, there are multiple positions for the Rays to upgrade in the offseason. They could use help at shortstop, at least in the short term until Carson Williams is up to speed offensively. The outfield depth chart is volatile at best. And sure, the rotation could use a facelift, even with Shane McClanahan's forthcoming return.
Among the most glaring areas of need, however, is catcher. Nick Fortes and Hunter Feduccia are both below replacement-level at the plate. In comes veteran JT Realmuto, a seasoned vet who should command a reasonable short-term contract within Tampa's scant price range. The Rays probably don't want to pay as much as Realmuto will receive, but he's not going to run up the price like younger stars on the market.
This was a mixed-bag season at the plate for Realmuto, but he came on strong after the All-Star break and is once again delivering for Philadelphia in the playoffs. He's also one of the best defensive catchers in the sport. He will build an extremely positive relationship with Tampa's pitchers while framing strikes beautifully and nixing attempted steals on the regular.
Even if Realmuto is inconsistent at the plate in his age-35 campaign, the Rays will benefit from his leadership on and off the field.
Boston Red Sox: RHP Dylan Cease
It's pretty clear what Boston needs. Craig Breslow has three simple tasks laid out in front of him: Trade Jarren Duran, upgrade first base and find a second ace to pitch behind Garrett Crochet in the rotation. The final point is the most important, and the best free agent pitcher on the market this winter is Dylan Cease, who happens to be an ex-White Sox teammate of Crochet. How fitting.
Cease's surface numbers this season weren't very impressive — 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP — but the metrics paint a more nuanced portrait. To keep it simple, Cease was unlucky this season. His expected ERA (3.47) sits in a far more palatable realm. He was in the 95th percentile for whiff rate (33.4) and the 89th percentile for strikeout rate (29.8), which means the righty is still missing a ton of bats. His 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings led the National League.
He can struggle with command on occasion, but Cease's stuff runs as hot as anyone in MLB. Just a year ago, Cease finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting and threw a no-hitter. He was rock solid in his lone postseason appearance for San Diego this month, proving he can still deliver when it counts.
There are arguments to be made for the aforementioned Ranger Suárez, or other free-agent aces like Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen. But at the end of the day, Cease's ceiling exceeds all of them, and it feels like he's just waiting for the right long-term home. He's sure to embrace the reunion with Crochet, as suddenly Boston has the zippiest one-two punch in the division — and perhaps the league overall.
New York Yankees: 3B Alex Bregman
The Yankees could go a number of directions this offseason, but is there a more appealing outcome than poaching Alex Bregman from Boston a year after his arrival virtually pushed Rafael Devers out the door? Bregman seems destined to turn down his contract option and test the open market. Boston should make a strong push to retain him. Other suitors will line up around the block. But New York has a solid pitch and a hitter-friendly park for Bregman to rake in.
On the surface, New York does not need a third baseman after trading for Ryan McMahon, who delivered solid results down the stretch. McMahon is a brilliant defender and a solid bat, especially against righties. But there is room for improvement in the Yankees' infield. Jazz Chisholm commits a lot of errors at second. Anthony Volpe is even worse at shortstop, and his bat didn't really justify the sustained playing time in 2025.
McMahon is more than capable of shifting to shortstop and platooning with Volpe. If the Yankees really want to keep him at third, Chisholm is above average in the outfield. He prefers the infield, but Bregman is worth ruffling a few feathers (as long as you go about it the right way ... just call Craig Breslow for pointers on what not to do). Bregman is comfortable at second base. New York can find a way to make it work.
For a Yankees team that continues to come up short in October, adding a proven postseason performer like Bregman, who reached the mountaintop twice in Houston, feels like a smart bet. There are aging concerns as he presses into his mid-30s, but Bregman was sensational on the whole last season. He finished with a .273 average and .821 OPS, picking up 18 home runs and 62 RBI in 433 at-bats. Injuries derailed him a bit after the All-Star break, but Bregman has a decade of excellent production under his belt. The Yankees needn't worry too much in the short term.
Bregman helps New York's defense, gives them leadership in the clubhouse and puts a smart, savvy bat behind Aaron Judge in the lineup. It's an optimal setup, especially if the Yankees need to reallocate resources following the potential departure(s) of Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham and other key free agents.