For the most part, we know who the stars will be in the 2026 MLB season. We know Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge will be in the thick of their respective MVP races, and the same can be said about Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal in the Cy Young balloting. It takes more than one star to win games, though.
The teams with the deepest rosters often have the most success in MLB's 162-game marathon. With that in mind, these X-factors could decide who wins each division in 2026.
AL East: Kazuma Okamoto
The Toronto Blue Jays followed up their AL Pennant win with an overall good offseason, but it's hard to ignore the fact that they play in the AL East, the toughest division by far, and they lost Bo Bichette, their second-best position player, to free agency. Say what you want about Bichette's defense, but he was a consistently reliable hitter throughout his Jays tenure, particularly in the clutch.
The Jays signed Kazuma Okamoto to replace him in their infield and didn't make any other major offensive additions. The Okamoto addition has a chance to be a really good one. He's known for making excellent contact, playing solid defense, and even having some power as well. However, he has not played a single MLB game that matters yet.
If Okamoto hits the ground running, the Jays will be tough to beat, especially with Dylan Cease now joining Kevin Gausman at the top of their rotation. If he struggles, this lineup might not be as deep as it was in 2025, and in such a tough division, that could give teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and even the Baltimore Orioles, a chance to pounce and steal the AL East.
AL Central: Kevin McGonigle
The Detroit Tigers awarded Kevin McGonigle a spot on their Opening Day roster despite the 21-year-old not playing a single game above Double-A. I'm not going to say that decision wasn't deserved — McGonigle has done nothing but rake in parts of three minor league seasons and he had an outstanding spring training — but that doesn't mean it isn't risky promoting someone with such limited experience in the upper minors.
The Tigers promoted him because he deserved it, but also because they need all the help they can get. It cannot be overstated how important this season is for Detroit, with Tarik Skubal slated to hit free agency this winter. Essentially running back a lineup that managed to score more than three runs just three times in eight playoff games in 2025 would've been unacceptable. McGonigle figures to give them a major boost.
An upgraded Tigers lineup to go along with their two-headed rotation monster of Skubal and Framber Valdez makes them easy AL Central favorites. If McGonigle doesn't adjust to the majors as quickly as expected, though, the door would be open for teams like the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians to make things interesting.
AL West: Tatsuya Imai
The AL West is the Seattle Mariners' division to lose, but a healthy Houston Astros team is hard to discount. Yordan Alvarez is one of the best all-around hitters in the league when he's able to play, Jose Altuve is still a high-end hitter, Isaac Paredes is as underrated as they come, and Cam Smith is bound to take a step forward in his second big league season. What about their pitching, though?
Hunter Brown is a top five pitcher in the American League, but the rest of Houston's rotation leaves a lot to be desired. That can all change, though, if Tatsuya Imai delivers on his immense upside. Imai pitched well in spring training, but his contract also came in far cheaper than expected, giving reason to believe that MLB teams simply weren't very high on him coming out of the NPB.
With a solid lineup and a rotation led by Brown and Imai, perhaps Houston will challenge Seattle in the AL West. If Imai can't step up and be a quality No. 2 starter, though, I'm not sure anyone on this Astros team can, putting them in a tough sp ot when matched up against a team as good as Seattle.
NL East: Nolan McLean
The Philadelphia Phillies have won back-to-back NL East titles, but their refusal to shake up most of their team leaves the door open for teams like the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves to steal the division title, potentially. The Braves are already dealing with a slew of injuries, so the Mets pose the biggest threat to Philadelphia right now, particularly if Nolan McLean proves to be an elite starter in his first full season.
McLean burst onto the scene and was nothing short of spectacular in his eight starts for the Mets down the stretch of last season, posting a 2.06 ERA and striking out over 30 percent of the batters he faced. He was so impressive that he earned a spot in Team USA's rotation in the WBC. With that being said, an eight-start sample is microscopic. Who's to say McLean is going to be elite over a full season?
The Mets have an offense capable of beating anybody, led by Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette. The Freddy Peralta addition should be a huge one, but the Mets will need more than just Peralta to produce in their rotation to win this division. McLean stepping up to be a frontline No. 2 starter could make the Mets a serious threat to unseat Philadelphia.
NL Central: Edward Cabrera
The Alex Bregman addition generated the most headlines, but the Edward Cabrera addition could be what determines whether the Chicago Cubs can win the NL Central. The Cubs traded top prospect Owen Caissie in the deal to acquire Cabrera, showing their immense faith in Cabrera being a difference-maker in their rotation.
Their rotation needs a difference-maker, especially given the question marks revolving around everybody else. Justin Steele is going to be coming off a major injury, Matthew Boyd had a subpar second half, Shota Imanaga had a brutal year, and Cade Horton is inexperienced. Cabrera has his share of question marks too, but the upside is clear. He had a 3.53 ERA in 26 starts and struck out nearly 26 percent of the batters he faced. With an elite Cubs defense behind him, why can't Cabrera take another step forward, especially if his improved command remains intact this season?
If Cabrera pitches well, the Cubs are going to be tough to beat, as solid as teams like the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds are. If Cabrera is unable to pitch like a frontline starter, all of a sudden, this Cubs rotation could be very beatable, and that could mean trouble.
NL West: Dodgers' health
I'm going to be honest — it's hard to see a world in which the Los Angeles Dodgers don't win the NL West. Not only are they absurdly talented, but I'm just not as high on the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants or Arizona Diamondbacks as I would've liked to be. The only conceivable thing that can get in the Dodgers' way is health.
And to be clear, it's far from perfect health-wise for the Dodgers right now. Both Blake Snell and Tommy Edman are beginning the year on the IL, and there are injury prone players up and down the lineup. It isn't conceivable to believe the Dodgers are going to have to dig deep into their depth at certain points of the season, much like in 2025.
With that being said, despite the Dodgers' injury woes last season, they won 93 games, the NL West title, and, of course, the World Series. Maybe one of the three teams mentioned above defies the odds and takes the division crown away from L.A., but it's really hard to envision that happening without just a myriad of injuries taking place. The Dodgers are simply too talented.
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