The Philadelphia Phillies took the 2025 MLB Draft by storm, selecting fan favorite Gage Wood with the 26th pick in the first round. While that pick caught plenty of attention, the Phillies' overarching draft plan ought to intrigue and frustrate fans in equal measure. It will also raise plenty of questions around the future of a veteran pitcher like Aaron Nola.
Philadelphia's first eight picks were all pitchers. Nine of their first 10. Dave Dombrowski eventually diversified a bit with some late-round shortstops and outfielders, but the Phillies overwhelmingly focused on restocking the pitching pipeline. That is a fascinating strategy when pitching depth (at least in the rotation) is the Phillies' No. 1 strength right now.
There isn't a better rotation in the National League. Nola hasn't pitched since May 14 due to injury and the Phils' rotation hasn't missed a beat. Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez are Cy Young candidates. Ranger Suárez would be too if he hadn't missed so many games to start the season. Jesús Luzardo looked like a Cy Young candidate for a couple months there, although his last handful of starts have been a bit more ... adventurous.
That is four rock-solid starters, all of whom feel postseason viable, before you even get to Nola. And now comes the youth movement.
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Phillies' MLB Draft haul puts Aaron Nola on notice
Wood, their first-round pick, and Cade Obermueller, their second-round pick, are both college arms on the MLB fast-track. Heck, the bullpen is so shoddy that both have been pegged as potential contributors this season. In the long run, though, both are expected to start. Wood in particular has top-line stuff and would've come off the board much higher if not for past injuries. His 19-strikeout no-hitter in the College World Series was the stuff of legend.
Then you take a gander at the top of Philadelphia's farm system and you find Mick Abel, who already has five MLB starts under his belt, and Andrew Painter, a top-five MLB prospect who is expected to receive his call-up in the coming weeks. Abel's immediate future is a bit murkier, but Painter should be on the roster and pitching in some capacity once October rolls around.
So what happens with Nola? The 32-year-old was experiencing his worst season to date before the injury, posting a 6.16 ERA and 1.51 WHIP through nine starts. Nola's durability and consistency has always been his superpower, but there is a real sense of his impending decline. The velocity was down and the control wasn't what it normally is. Maybe he bounces back after the injury, but what if he doesn't?
Aaron Nola's contract puts the Phillies in a tough spot
The only problem with "replacing" Nola is that he's under contract through 2030 at $24.6 million annually. The Phillies could explore trading Nola, but that's a lot of long-term money for a mid-30s pitcher with Nola's recent struggles. So he's stuck in Philly for a while, even if there are designs on replacing him.
One could just as easily view this run of pitching prospects as a measure to replace Zack Wheeler, who has vowed to retire after his contract expires in 2027. But let's assume for a moment that Sánchez, Luzardo and Suárez are all in it for the long haul (we're still waiting on the Suárez extension, but he continues to express his desire to stick around). Painter is a borderline lock to anchor the rotation for the foreseeable future. Abel is, at the very least, a viable back-end rotation piece, with a much higher ceiling if all breaks right. Nola is going to get squeezed, whether Wheeler actually retires or not.
If Wood and Obermueller both deliver on expectations and emerge as viable big-league starters within the next few years, the Phillies will need to consider tough cuts. There's a world in which Nola continues to decline and is demoted to super-charged (and super-expensive) reliever, but really some combination of trades becomes inevitable, whether it's Nola or one of Philadelphia's younger, more dynamic arms, who might return a greater haul.
Just keep tabs on this trend, because the Phillies will need to crunch the numbers and make some decisions about the pitching staff in the near future.