Predicting trade deadline fire sales for each of MLB's struggling contenders

On one hand, it's very early. Any team can go on a solid 20-game stretch at any point in any given season. On the other hand, it can get very late very early. Fans didn't necessarily freak out when teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves started last season slowly, but both teams wound up selling at the trade deadline.

For these would-be MLB contenders, the clock is already ticking. Sure, there's plenty of time for them to get going, but a couple more bad weeks could put these teams in a hole that's too big to dig out of. That harsh reality could lead to a trade deadline these contenders didn't anticipate, involving the sale of contributing players for prospects.

Toronto Blue Jays

Injuries might be the primary reason why the Toronto Blue Jays have gotten off to such a sluggish start, but that doesn't mean they get a free pass. It's entirely possible they turn things around, but it's also possible they never get fully healthy and never get going. That could lead to a drastic shift at the trade deadline, especially when looking at their upcoming free agents in 2026 and 2027.

There are a ton of core players on this list, which is incredibly unsettling for Jays fans. There's a chance the Jays could lose Kevin Gausman, George Springer and Daulton Varsho this offseason, or even earlier. Of these candidates, Gausman is probably the most valuable — and the most likely candidate to get dealt if the team can't get back into contention by July.

Blue Jays trade candidate: Kevin Gausman

Gausman has been as advertised this season, posting a 2.54 ERA in five starts and 28.1 innings of work. He's allowed three runs or fewer in each of these outings, giving the shorthanded Jays a chance to win each time he's taken the ball. This exemplifies who Gausman has been throughout his Toronto tenure: just a consistent rock atop that rotation.

He's a player any contending team would want, and a player the Jays would likely want to keep around long term, but we need to be realistic here. The right-hander is a free agent at the end of the year, and will look to cash in on what will likely be the last big contract he signs. It might make more sense to trade him for a haul, rather than risk losing him to free agency and/or giving him a contract they might come to regret with Dylan Cease already on the books at $30 million a year.

New York Mets

The New York Mets have lost 11 games in a row. Yes, Juan Soto's return is imminent, and there's a lot of talent on this roster, but given how last season ended and how this season has started, does anyone really believe this team will be in contention? That could lead to a big trade deadline for David Stearns.

Unfortuntely, there isn't much here in terms of quantity. The Mets are locked into much of their current core, with contracts for guys like Marcus Semien, Kodai Senga and Bo Bichette being fairly untradeable given how they've played. There is still some quality, though, particularly with the first four players on the list. Freddy Peralta, of course, sticks out the most.

Mets trade candidate: Freddy Peralta

Now, it would be strange and incredibly unfortunate for the Mets to trade Peralta just months after trading two top prospects in the offseason to acquire him, but what other choice does the team have? If New York isn't going to make the playoffs, doesn't it make more sense to trade a player slated to hit the open market after the season?

Even with his free agency looming, Peralta can fetch a very substantial return, especially when considering he's only making $8 million this season. Sure, you could argue that trading him at the deadline makes it less likely that he'd sign a long-term deal with the team in the offseason, but it's probably unlikely that David Stearns pays him what he's looking for anyway, based on his history and the fact that Peralta hasn't inked an extension with the club by now. If the Mets are out of it, they'd be doing themselves a disservice not trading a player they probably won't be re-signing anyway.

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are now 8-15 after being swept by the Cardinals over the weekend, and it's starting to feel like they're in an especially brutal situation. Yes, injuries have ravaged them, but this roster, even when healthy, is incredibly flawed, and their farm system is as bad as it gets right now. It's hard to envision the Astros winning much in 2026 or in the next couple of years, but a trade deadline sell-off could help them in the future.

The problem, though, is that there just isn't much to sell. Nobody is trading for expensive veterans like Carlos Correa or Josh Hader, and the Astros won't want to trade their best players like Yordan Alvarez or Hunter Brown to truly cash in and start rebuilding. For the Astros to get any prospects of note, they'll have to consider trading guys under contract beyond 2026. That's where Isaac Paredes factors in.

Astros trade candidate: Isaac Paredes

Now, a case could be made that Houston should trade Jeremy Pena, a player they're unlikely to extend who's a free agent after the 2027 season and would net Houston a lot more than Paredes, but Paredes isn't a great fit on this roster and could be better served somewhere else.

The Astros created an infield logjam when they re-acquired Correa, and they've yet to deal with it. It's honestly surprising that Paredes is still around, but if the Astros are out of it by July, why not trade him now, while his value should still be pretty high, for players who fit the team better — whether in the outfield or on the mound? Paredes was front and center in trade rumors over the offseason, and there's every reason to expect that to continue if the Astros are deadline sellers.

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies fans were upset with the team's offseason because they felt it wasn't good enough to get them to the World Series. With how things look right now, they might not even get to the playoffs. This team can't hit and lacks pitching depth anywhere you turn. They're in a heap of trouble, and if they don't get their act together, selling becomes a much more serious proposition.

As is the case with Houston, though, who are they going to sell? Their core, consisting of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Nola, are all locked into big money. The Phillies won't want to move players like Jesus Luzardo, Cristopher Sanchez or Andrew Painter. There isn't much for other teams to get excited about.

Phillies trade candidate: Alec Bohm

They might decide to trade a player like Brad Keller, knowing how much teams can get for solid relievers with additional control at the deadline, but the most realistic candidate is probably Alec Bohm. Now, the Phillies won't get much of anything for Bohm, a corner infielder who's never been a good defender or had much power and is in the midst of a brutal season thus far — all while making $10.2 million. But it's better to get something than nothing, right?

If this season forces Dave Dombrowski to sell at the deadline, there's no way they'll just run things back again. While again, the core won't be moved, switching things up from Bohm feels likely. The Phillies won't acquire his replacement in a deal, but trading him for something and replacing him in the offseason (or even with Aidan Miller) is the play.

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