The worst part of the Mets' nightmare start? This is more than a one-year problem

Every time it seems like the New York Mets have found rock bottom early in 2026, they manage to dig a little bit deeper. The alarm bells were already ringing even before the team got sand-blasted in a 12-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Friday, a seventh straight defeat that came on the heels of getting swept by both the A's and Dodgers.

It's still early, at least technically speaking. But New York is now firmly in the NL East cellar at 7-13, and it's hard to talk yourself into this simply being a slow start or the product of small sample noise. This is simply not a very good team right now, and it's hard to figure out a path to being one even after Soto returns when you consider just how many weak spots exist in both the lineup and pitching staff.

I'd love to be able to take the long view, to at least offer Mets fans reason for optimism beyond this (seemingly already lost) season. Unfortunately, the truth is that the changes David Stearns made this offseason have locked New York into this core for more than just 2026 — and with a clogged payroll and little in the way of movable assets, it's hard to chart a course to a one-year turnaround.

Even if David Stearns wanted to, selling at the trade deadline would be difficult

Again, there's still time for the Mets to turn this season around; it's still mid-April, after all. But at the risk of getting Old Takes Expose'd, let's assume for the sake of argument that this is roughly what New York is as a team in 2026 — that they get to July hovering around .500 and without a clear path toward a playoff run.

Ordinarily, you'd advocate for a team in that position to sell off whatever it can with an eye toward jumping back into contention in 2027. The problem there, though, is that it's unclear who the Mets might be able to move even if they wanted to. It's hard to imagine Bo Bichette getting moved, given the unique structure of his contract (player options for 2027 and 2028 at sky-high AAVs) and the likelihood that he'd opt in for next season if he continues to struggle at the plate. As far as rentals go, Clay Holmes is the only obvious fit, a guy in his final year of team control whose utility as a starter and reliever could come in handy for the stretch run.

So, fine, Holmes will probably fetch you something of value in return. Beyond that, though, what moves are out there to be made? No one's touching Marcus Semien's contract. Jorge Polanco is on the books for $20 million next season and has alternated between injured and ineffective thus far. Luis Robert Jr. is one of the lone bright spots thus far. Are you excited to sell (very) low on homegrown guys like Mark Vientos or Brett Baty?

Teams always need relief help, so maybe New York can flip someone like A.J. Minter if he comes back healthy from his current shoulder issue. For the most part, though, the Mets will have a hard time being sellers if they can't be buyers at the deadline. And that speaks to a larger problem: New York is locked into large portions of this roster beyond 2026.

The Mets are locked into this core for at least one more year

There's at least something of a foundation here. You'd feel pretty good about an outfield of Soto, Robert Jr. and Carson Benge, even if the top prospect is experiencing some very rookie struggles at the moment. Francisco Lindor remains a very good shortstop. Francisco Alvarez is a keeper at catcher. And assuming New York finds a way to bring back Freddy Peralta, considering what it gave up to get him from Milwaukee, he'd pair nicely with Nolan McLean at the top of the rotation.

But it takes a lot more than seven players to build a postseason contender, and from there, the question marks come fast and furious. Even if Bichette opts in and hits more like his old self, the Mets could well find themselves needing to rebuild the entire right side of the infield, as well as upgrading at DH and filling out most of their pitching staff. That's quite the to-do list, and even that is assuming that Benge and Robert Jr. stabilize as above-average regulars moving forward.

The Mets have a very good farm system, and will no doubt count on guys like righty Jonah Tong, infielder Jacob Reimer and outfielder AJ Ewing stepping into starting roles as early as Opening Day (or even later this summer). We've seen this year just how tricky a proposition that can be, though, and if they don't get internal upgrades, it's going to be hard to find them externally.

For starters, this doesn't shape up to be a particularly compelling free-agent class next winter. Tarik Skubal is of course the headliner, but every big market in the sport will be looking to pry him from Detroit, and beyond that, you're getting to guys like Trevor Rogers and Michael King — good pitchers with warts in their profiles and a not-insignificant amount of risk. And the position player side of things is even worse: If the Mets miss on Jazz Chisholm Jr., good luck finding an impact infielder.

As things currently stand, the Mets figure to have nearly $170 million tied up in Bichette (assuming he opts in), Semien, Sean Manaea, Robert Jr., Polanco, Senga, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver next season. That's hardly ideal resource allocation, and it'll affect team-building even for a team with such deep pockets. There are only so many roster spots to go around, after all, and only so much dead money an organization will eat. The picture clears up considerably in 2028 and beyond — that's part of what Stearns has been building toward, from letting Pete Alonso walk to swapping Semien for Brandon Nimmo — but things might get worse in Queens before they get better.

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