After a wildly entertaining Wild Card Series, attention has officially fully turned to the Division Series. Eight teams remain, and after four teams had byes in the Wild Card Series, all eight teams will participate in the Division Series, hoping to earn an opportunity to play for the right to represent their respective league in the World Series.
It's easy to predict which teams will advance to the League Championship Series, but let's be real - we see upsets all the time. I mean, how many people expected the Detroit Tigers to defeat the very team they choked the AL Central to in the Wild Card Series? How many people expected the New York Yankees to come back from a 1-0 series deficit, doing something no team had done in the Wild Card Series before, to knock off the Boston Red Sox?
This goes to show that while favorites are favorites for a reason, it's entirely possible we'll see upsets in the Division Series. When looking at the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, here's a ranking of how possible an upset is in each Division Series.
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4. AL No. 6 Detroit Tigers (+146) over AL No. 2 Seattle Mariners
It's tough to label the Detroit Tigers as the least likely team to pull off a Division Series upset when they have the best pitcher on the planet, Tarik Skubal, on their roster, but how much of an impact can he realistically have? Sure, he's going to start Game 2, and will likely start a do-or-die Game 5 if it were to get that far, but how sure are we that it'll get that far?
It feels like the Mariners have every conceivable advantage that doesn't include Skubal. They're far better offensively, have a much deeper pitching staff both in the rotation and bullpen, and they have home-field advantage (went 51-30 at home in the regular season).
The talent advantage is clear, the Mariners have been the far better team down the stretch, and they're rested. This one will not be particularly close, especially in games where Skubal does not pitch.
3. AL No. 1 Toronto Blue Jays (+132) over AL No. 4 New York Yankees
It's absolutely disrespectful to have the American League's No. 1 seed, the Toronto Blue Jays, as the underdog against the team they outlasted in the AL East, the New York Yankees, but I expect the Yankees to win this series. It's not as if Toronto was much better than New York — they finished with the same record!
The Jays have been an incredible story, but I have concerns up and down the roster. Can they score enough with Bo Bichette out? That was a problem down the stretch. Can they pitch well against one of the best lineups in the game? They're going to have to rely heavily on a bullpen that was extremely inconsistent in the second half.
The Jays won the season series against New York, allowing them to win the AL East, but several of the games they won came thanks to a lackluster Yankees defense. While the Yankees are still prone to the occasional mistake, the left side of their infield is much better on that end than it was earlier this season. The Jays are obviously the better defensive team, but I don't see the Yankees beating themselves.
I think the Yankees' lineup is so tough to contain, and I think the Jays will have a hard time scoring runs without Bichette against a quality staff. Experience matters too, and the Yankees have much more of it. The Blue Jays have home-field advantage, which should play a role, but I don't see many boxes they check other than that. The more talented team should win even without home-field advantage, and that's the Yankees.
2. NL No. 4 Chicago Cubs (+100) over NL No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers
This is the toughest series of the four to pick, in my opinion. I believe both of these teams have already peaked, and both of these teams are dealing with potentially season-defining injuries. I could genuinely see it going either way.
Offensively, I like the Chicago Cubs a good amount more. Yes, their lineup was very inconsistent in the second half, but they have more star power and can beat you in several ways, including hitting the ball out of the ballpark. The Brewers are an excellent team on the base paths, but their lack of power could come back to bite them.
On the pitching side, the Brewers have the advantage, but both of these teams are dealing with injuries. Justin Steele has been out for most of the year, and Cade Horton is out, too. On the Brewers' side, both Brandon Woodruff and Jose Quintana are out.
To sum up, both of these teams are excellent defensively and have questions just about everywhere else you turn. It's easy to pick the team that led the majors in wins, but I wouldn't be overly shocked if the Cubs took it either. Ultimately, there's a reason why their odds are the smallest to pull off the upset per FanDuel.
1. NL No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies (+106) over NL No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers
I know I said that the series above was the hardest series for me to pick, but on second thought, it might be this one. Both of these teams have elite lineups and rotations, and have bullpen questions. Sure, the Philadelphia Phillies have Jhoan Duran and the Dodgers don't, but I'd also take Los Angeles' rotation and lineup by a small margin over Philadelphia's. I can truly see this going either way.
The winner of this series could very well be the team whose stars perform at a higher level. The Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman on the offensive side, while they have Ohtani, Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitching. The Phillies have Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber offensively with Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Duran on the mound.
The Phillies have home-field advantage, which should help, but both of these rosters are incredibly talented with strengths in similar areas. I have no idea who to pick. What I do believe is that the winner of this series will get to the Fall Classic rather easily, if not win it.
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.