With less than two weeks left in the regular season, we don't yet know which 12 teams will participate in the MLB Postseason. There are only two real locks in the American League — Toronto and Detroit — as Seattle, Houston, New York and Boston all take turns stumbling and fumbling their way to the finish line. The National League more or less has four locks at the top, but San Diego and New York refuse to cement their claims.
Here is how the Wild Card standings shake out as we enter the stretch run.
American League postseason standings
Seed | Team | Record | Wild Card GB |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Toronto Blue Jays | 89-62 | -- |
2 | Detroit Tigers | 85-66 | -- |
3 | Seattle Mariners | 83-68 | -- |
4 | New York Yankees | 84-67 | +2.0 |
5 | Houston Astros | 83-69 | +0.5 |
6 | Boston Red Sox | 82-69 | -- |
-- | Cleveland Guardians | 79-71 | 2.5 |
-- | Texas Rangers | 79-73 | 3.5 |
National League postseason standings
Seed | Team | Record | Wild Card GB |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 92-59 | -- |
2 | Philadelphia Phillies | 91-61 | -- |
3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 84-67 | -- |
4 | Chicago Cubs | 87-64 | +9.0 |
5 | San Diego Padres | 82-69 | +4.0 |
6 | New York Mets | 78-73 | -- |
-- | Arizona Diamondbacks | 77-75 | 1.5 |
-- | Cincinnati Reds | 75-76 | 3.0 |
-- | San Francisco Giants | 75-76 | 3.0 |
There are other teams technically still in the mix, such as the Kansas City Royals (7.0 GB) and St. Louis Cardinals (4.5 GB), but we can safely narrow down the field of genuine Wild Card threats to five: Arizona, San Francisco and Cincinnati in the NL, Cleveland and Texas in the AL. While the prohibitive favorites to claim the No. 6 seeds are still the teams in pole position, the tides are shifting rather suddenly and much is left undecided as we enter these final weeks.
So, let's dive into the five potential party crashers to determine which Wild Card threats are real, and which we can probably write off.
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5. San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants were surging early in September, but three straights losses — with a four-game Dodgers series on the horizon — leaves them in a severely compromised position. You can never say never, especially with a gap as small as 3.0 games and a sixth-place team as unreliable as the Mets, but San Francisco feels like the clear ninth-best team in the National League. To quote the Twitter experts: pure mid.
There's no shortage of talent on the Giants roster and Buster Posey has proven his commitment to building a winner, even when it can be tough to lure top free agents to San Francisco nowadays. Rafael Devers is still a superhuman slugger in the heart of the lineup and the Giants are ripe with young talent that is ready to take the next step. The recent call-up of top prospect Bryce Eldridge, a towering lefty with unlimited natural power, is a last-ditch effort to spark something. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't.
Still, San Francisco's lineup thins out in the back half and the starting rotation lacks punch beyond Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. It feels like another productive offseason may finally deliver the Giants to contender status, but as the standings take shape down the stretch, San Francisco sits a cut below the others — even with the Mets in total free fall.
4. Cincinnati Reds
I don't think many people find it difficult to write off the Cincinati Reds. It's a small-market club without much traditional star-power, so the Reds are easily discounted. I'm not sure that should be the case, though. Terry Francona has been around the block once or twice. He knows what he's doing. Also ... the Reds are pretty damned talented, and that talent stretches well beyond The Show cover athlete Elly De La Cruz.
Cincinnati has incredible depth, with Miguel Andujar (.814 OPS) and FanSided All-Underrated outfielder Austin Hays (.776 OPS) not even slated for regular starts right now. Top prospect Sal Stewart has delivered immediate results in the middle of the lineup. Stewart, De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte form one of the most promising under-25 cores in MLB right now.
What about the rotation? Well, it's strong front to back, with five guys you could realistically imagine starting in the playoffs. Andrew Abbott, Hunter Green and Nick Lodolo would challange any three-man grouping in the NL postseason mix on a good week. The bullpen is a weak point by comparison, but in terms of talent, coaching and upside, the Reds are certainly on par with New York, San Francisco and the other NL postseason hopefuls.
3. Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers will close out the regular season with series against Miami, Minnesota and Cleveland. Two very winnable matchups, and then a three-game showdown with their most direct competitor in the Wild Card race — a prime opportunity to pull ahead at the finish line. Back-to-back losses in Houston have killed the Rangers' momentum somewhat, but we know what the club from Arlington is capable of.
Bruce Bochy is one of the most accomplished managers in MLB. Texas won the World Series just two short years ago with much of the same core. A productive trade deadline yielded another ace in Merrill Kelly, who anchors a battle-tested rotation next to Jacob deGrom. Texas has a deep bullpen, a well of corporate knowledge in the locker room and some of the league's most explosive bats. So why isn't Texas waltzing past the struggling Red Sox?
Well, injuries. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are both stuck on the 10-day IL right now. Nathan Eovaldi, who was pitching his way into the Cy Young conversation, is done for the year. Texas is limping to the finish line, unfortunately, which leaves their lineup incredibly vulnerable. The American League has three teams that could slip out of the Wild Card race, rather than just one like the National League, so Texas' odds are still respectable. Just know it will take extreme fortitude, even against beatable opponents.
2. Cleveland Guardians
Often times, a Wild Card push is all about momentum, and the Cleveland Guardians have plenty of it. As the Red Sox falter and the AL West frontrunners trade discouraging signs, Cleveland is surging into the season's end week and change.
The schedule isn't necessarily "favorable," but Cleveland gets to take a crack at both Detroit and Texas to finish out the campaign. That provides a golden opportunity to close the gap with Detroit and to put some distance between themselves and the Rangers. Cleveland won its division a year ago and still has more than enough talent to warrant your attention. Especially when it feels like Boston is practically trying to give away its spot, not to mention Houston and New York's own well-documented concerns.
Of course, the Guardians are far from a perfect team. The starting rotation has performed well below its means for long stretches this season and the bullpen, while strong on the back end, can get a little flimsy in the middle innings. In the lineup, the Guardians start with a killer gauntlet — Steven Kwan, Daniel Schneemann, José Ramírez, Kyle Manzardo — and then their slugging plummets. A good barometer for overall offensive production is wRC+, with 100 indicating the league average. Only three Guardians hitters meet that threshold.
We know Cleveland's rotation can step up and Stephen Vogt is a brilliant leader in the dugout, but the reason the Guardians slot so highly here, beyond the allure of last season's accomplishments, is momentum. The offense is mashing right now, and if this atypical hot spell stretches into October, who cares what held Cleveland back before the All-Star break?
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks are right on the Mets' tail. New York has finally strung together a couple wins after a catastrophic losing streak, but there isn't a Wild Card team in more peril right now. The NL race features less broad chaos than what's happening in the AL, but if there's a "best" bet to fall out of the postseason in the final weeks, it's New York.
And here's the thing about Arizona: That's a damn good team. This has been a brutal season on the injury front for the D-backs, but in terms of overall talent, the 2023 NL champs are right up there with the best teams in the league. The top of the lineup is incredibly strong, featuring two MVP-type, five-tool stars in Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, as well as two of the most underrated players in MLB in Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno.
The Corbin Burnes injury still stings, and Arizona probably wishes it still had Merrill Kelly right about now, but the rotation has settled into a nice groove. Zac Gallen is back to pitching like the front-line ace he has always been. Arizona has won Eduardo Rodríguez's last four starts. Ryne Nelson looks like he can hold his own in the playoffs.
In terms of overall talent, production ceiling and current momentum, the Diamondbacks are the scariest team on the postseason bubble right now. The Mets cannot let their foot off the gas pedal whatsoever. Arizona's schedule to close out the campaign is absolutely brutal — Los Angeles, Philadelphia and San Diego in quick succession — but if the D-backs can pull through, it's a golden opportunity to make up ground, maybe even to knock the Padres and Dodgers down a peg and really spice things up.