When the Seattle Mariners acquired both Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the trade deadline, the question wasn't whether they'd make the playoffs or not, but whether they'd win the AL West. Well, while they've still got a shot in the division, their playoff standing is far from secure. Even after finishing off their third straight win on Monday, the 76-68 Mariners have just a 1.5-game cushion in the AL Wild Card race.
I believe that, in the end, the Mariners will make it to the postseason. They're simply too talented a team not to. However, with the fact that they've gone just 9-15 in their last 24 games in mind, the door is open for another team to overtake them.
If the Mariners were to get leapfrogged in the Wild Card race, here's a ranking of the teams with the best chance to pass them.
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Ranking the teams with the best chance of leapfrogging Mariners in AL Wild Card race
The Tampa Bay Rays were 11 games over .500 and just 0.5 games back of first place in the AL East in late June, but they've gone 34-46 since, all but eliminating them from the AL East race and making their playoff odds in general extremely slim. Tampa Bay is currently 4.5 games back of the Mariners for the third Wild Card spot, a deficit that isn't quite insurmountable, but will be incredibly difficult for them to make up.
Ranking them fourth among the AL teams still somewhat in contention ultimately comes down to the math. The Rays not only face the largest deficit of the four teams, but they have the hardest remaining schedule, too. The odds suggest that Tampa Bay winning enough games to make up the ground while facing such tough competition is extremely unlikely.
With that being said, the Rays are still alive, they have the best run differential of the teams on this list, and I'd argue they're the most or second-most talented of the group. They have a shot, albeit a minuscule one.
Good organizations just find a way. The Cleveland Guardians are without both Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz, who are being investigated for gambling, and they traded Shane Bieber away at the trade deadline. Yet, they're right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race, finding a way to defy the odds, as they seemingly always do. In fact, at 73-70, Cleveland is just 3.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, and with six games still to be played against the Detroit Tigers, they have a puncher's chance in the AL Central as well.
The Guardians are currently the second-best team record-wise among those on the outside looking in, but the reason I have them ranked third on this list ultimately comes down to talent. Jose Ramirez is a superstar, but who else in their lineup scares you, especially with Steven Kwan having a lackluster stretch run? On the pitching front, Gavin Williams has had a good year and Parker Messick has been a pleasant surprise in his brief stint, but I'm not sure I trust most of this rotation, especially with Tanner Bibee in the midst of a down year. The Clase-less bullpen has performed well even without the superstar closer, but I'm just not a believer in much outside of Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis.
The Guardians always find a way to outperform expectations, so I wouldn't be overly shocked if they find a way to squeak into the playoffs, but I'll believe it'll happen when I see it. This team wasn't expecting to win at the trade deadline, which is why Shane Bieber was traded away, and I just don't believe in enough of what they have in place right now.
This season hasn't gone as planned for the Kansas City Royals, but they're just 3.0 games back of the Mariners and they're getting close to getting their ace, Cole Ragans, back from the IL. Ragans has had a lost season, but he can provide this Royals team a major boost down the stretch and potentially into October.
There are a couple of reasons why I have the Royals as the No. 2 team on this list, even though they're technically behind the Guardians in the standings. First, they have the best player among the teams in this race, Bobby Witt Jr. When at his best, Witt can carry Kansas City and will this team to the postseason by himself - that's how impactful he can be.
Second, and perhaps most importantly, the Royals will host the Mariners for a crucial three-game series in mid-September. Winning or sweeping that series would give them a season-series win over Seattle and the elusive tiebreaker, and would get them closer to catching up to the Mariners. This is an opportunity that none of the other teams on this list have.
The Texas Rangers are without Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien and Evan Carter, yet have somehow found enough offense to win 12 of their last 16 games. I'm not sure whether this can continue, but the Rangers are expected to get Garcia and potentially Seager back sometime this month.
Knowing that, the fact that they're just 1.5 games back, and how dominant their rotation has been, why can't Texas steal that third Wild Card spot? It won't be easy considering the state of their offense, the fact that they don't play the Mariners again and the fact that the Mariners own the tiebreaker, but again, this team has been clicking on all cylinders lately, and the pitching has been excellent.
Jacob deGrom is having his healthiest season in quite some time, Merrill Kelly has been a godsend since he was acquired at the deadline, and Jack Leiter has really stepped up. Nathan Eovaldi is out for the season, which hurts, but Tyler Mahle isn't far away from his return. If they continue to pitch at an elite level, their offense doesn't have to be all that great to win games.
I ultimately think the Mariners will fend off the field, but if anyone in this race has a chance, I'm going to go with this Rangers team that won it all just two years ago, has the best record of the bunch, and the best pitching to boot.