The ongoing Adley Rutschman saga took another turn this week, when the Baltimore Orioles locked up top young catching prospect Samuel Basallo to an eight-year deal. Rutschman is only under team control through the 2027 season, and as he struggles with injuries and inconsistency this year, he remains conspicuously without a long-term extension of his own.
Of course, signing Basallo doesn't necessarily usher Rutschman out of Baltimore. It's an open question as to whether the youngster will be able to stick behind the plate long term; maybe the O's see him as the successor to Ryan Mountcastle at first base, cycling through the occasional start at DH or catcher as well. But it does at the very least force us to reevaluate Rutschman's place in the franchise that drafted him No. 1 overall in the 2019 MLB Draft.
At first, that pick looked like a home run. Rutschman was in the Majors by 2022, finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year voting that season and then top-10 in AL MVP voting the next year. A switch hitter who played every day and was elite behind the plate, he seemed like a building block for a decade or more. Now, though, he's in the midst of another down year as a hitter while once again battling through health problems. So what do we make of Rutschman's value moving forward? Let's try to answer that by looking at where he'd rank in a redraft of that star-studded 2019 class.
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Redrafting the 2019 MLB Draft
Pick | Player | Position | Team | Original pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | Baltimore Orioles | C Adley Rutschman |
2 | Gunnar Henderson | SS | Kansas City Royals | SS Bobby Witt Jr. |
3 | Corbin Carroll | OF | Chicago White Sox | 1B Andrew Vaughn |
4 | Riley Greene | OF | Miami Marlins | OF JJ Bleday |
5 | CJ Abrams | SS | Detroit Tigers | OF Riley Greene |
6 | Hunter Brown | RHP | San Diego Padres | SS CJ Abrams |
7 | Adley Rutschman | C | Cincinnati Reds | LHP Nick Lodolo |
8 | George Kirby | RHP | Texas Rangers | 3B Josh Jung |
9 | Michael Harris II | OF | Atlanta Braves | C Shea Langeliers |
10 | Nick Lodolo | LHP | San Francisco Giants | OF Hunter Bishop |
11 | Kyle Stowers | OF | Toronto Blue Jays | RHP Alek Manoah |
12 | Shea Langeliers | C | New York Mets | 3B Brett Baty |
13 | Ryan Pepiot | RHP | Minnesota Twins | 3B Keoni Cavaco |
14 | Brenton Doyle | OF | Philadelphia Phillies | SS Bryson Stott |
15 | Michael Busch | 1B | Los Angeles Angels | SS Will Wilson |
Other notable players: Vinnie Pasquantino, Josh Jung, Spencer Steer, Joey Ortiz, Ryne Nelson, Matt Wallner, Anthony Volpe, Quinn Priester, Brett Baty, Bryson Stott
Based on his ability at the plate, his defense at a premium position and his overall athleticism, it's hard to argue against Witt Jr. as the top talent in this draft class and the clear No. 1 overall pick. That's hardly an indictment of Rutschman — Witt's set to be an inner-circle MVP candidate for years to come if he continues to develop.
After that, though, it's a matter of how far he might fall. Taking his teammate and fellow 2019 draftmate Henderson over him also feels pretty easy given the difference in offensive track record between the two. Corbin Carroll is a legitimate star at the plate and maven on the bases, while Greene is one of the more underrated bats in the game who can play center in a pinch. Abrams is a borderline All-Star up the middle who's gotten better offensively every year, and Brown has emerged as a frontline starter this season. Right now, unless Rutschman's bat rebounds, it's tough to argue that he's more valuable than either guy despite the value he brings behind the plate.
Ranking Rutschman at No. 7 overall feels about right. Kirby's stock has taken a big hit amid a difficult 2025 season. Harris II, meanwhile, feels like an interesting comp, a player who also excels at a premium position and who, despite flashing MVP-level upside at various points, has yet to put it all together for an extended period of time. I gave the nod to Rutschman because he's done it for longer and he's truly excellent as a catcher, but having them next to each other feels about right.