Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Multiple top MLB trade candidates are dealing with significant injuries just months before the deadline.
- The health of these players will determine whether teams become buyers or sellers in July.
- How these injuries resolve could dramatically reshape contender rosters and trade market dynamics by late July.
It's only the middle of May, but as contenders begin to emerge around the league, attention is already turning toward this year's trade deadline — where several star-caliber names could be available amid some disappointing starts. There's just one problem, though: In order to be dealt, you need to make it to the end of July healthy, and that's proving to be a problem for several of MLB's most notable trade assets. Here's all the latest injury news to know, and how it might impact which players wind up where (and which teams are buying and selling)
LHP Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
- Latest injury update: According to agent Scott Boras, Skubal's elbow surgery involved a new procedure — which Boras dubbed the "Skubal scope" — that could apparently cut the lefty's recovery time in half
Look, when Scott Boras is involved, you're never quite sure where the spin zone ends and reality begins. He has an obvious vested interest in maintaining a sense that everything is fine around his star client, who just underwent his third elbow procedure (after Tommy John in college and a flexor tendon repair back in 2022) mere months before hitting free agency.
That said, if we can take what Boras is saying at face value, it would be tremendous news for the Tigers. “It was kind of a lima-bean-sized particle that was nowhere near a ligament or anything," Boras told the Baseball Tonight podcast. “After Dr. ElAttrache got the MRI, he told me, ‘I have a new procedure that I think is something that we can discuss that will really, really limit the time that Tarik would be off versus a normal arthroscope.’ He essentially went in and was able to see the particle, extract it, and in effect, the consequence was that it was almost like Tarik had had an injection, because the needle’s so small.”
Cutting Skubal's recovery time "in half", as Boras claimed, could potentially have him back in Detroit's rotation by the All-Star break. That would give him enough time to prove to teams around the league that he's the same two-time Cy Young winner he was before going under the knife, which would go a long way toward rebuilding his market — and getting trade suitors back on the hook, should the Tigers fall further back in the AL Central race between now and July. It goes without saying that Skubal would be far and away the biggest fish of this deadline season, were he actually to be made available; but we're still a long way away from that right now, both because of his injury and because Detroit will no doubt be reluctant to move on from their face of the franchise.
LHP Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
- Latest injury update: The Boston Globe's Tim Healey reports that Crochet's return is "not imminent"; the lefty still isn't throwing off a mound yet, a prerequisite for throwing a bullpen session or going out on a rehab stint
When Crochet first landed on the IL with a shoulder issue, the Red Sox went above and beyond to reassure everyone that the injury wasn't serious and he wasn't expected to miss more than the minimum amount of time. He's eligible to return at some point this week, but he's clearly nowhere near ready given that he's still only throwing on flat ground.
Imaging didn't show any sort of structural damage to Crochet's shoulder, which is obviously good news. It's entirely possible that the Red Sox are just playing the long game here. But if that were the case? Why downplay things in the first place, and give everyone hope for a short stint on the shelf — especially given the other injuries in Boston's rotation right now?
The Red Sox have played slightly better ball since moving on from Alex Cora and much of his coaching staff, but they're still mired in last place in the AL East. A team built around run prevention is going to need Crochet back and at his best in order to get back into the hunt. Right now, though, Crochet's future is very much up in the air, at least in the near term, and that only increases the odds that Boston is selling by the trade deadline.
RHP Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
- Latest injury update: Per MLB.com, Greene is still in the long-toss portion of his throwing program as he recovers from elbow surgery back in March
Unsurprisingly given his injury history, the Reds are being as cautious as possible in bringing Greene along; the fact that he's yet to throw off a mound suggests that he probably won't even graduate to bullpen sessions until the end of May, which would most likely put his return to MLB action somewhere in July. That wasn't such a big deal when Cincinnati was defying the odds atop the NL Central, but they could really use their ace amid a losing skid that's dropped them to a tie for last place in a rugged division.
With fellow starter Rhett Lowder also heading to the IL (in addition to closer Emilio Pagan), a Reds pitching staff that carried this team in the early going is now running out of bodies. Unless they can find some offense soon, it's tough to imagine them keeping their head above water by the time Greene makes it back this summer — which could turn Cincy from deadline buyers into sellers very quickly. Guys like Brady Singer or even Nick Lodolo might be made available if the Reds fall too far behind.
LHP Josh Hader, Houston Astros
- Latest injury update: Hader made another rehab appearance with Triple-A Sugar Land over the weekend, striking out two in a scoreless inning of work while sitting at 95 mph on his fastball
Not only is Hader finally nearing his 2026 debut after starting the season on the IL, but he's looking more and more like the guy who earned a fifth All-Star nod last year. Will that be enough to get this Astros season back on track? Almost certainly not. But it does add an interesting new wrinkle to the trade deadline, considering the state of Houston's roster and the fact that he's under contract through 2028.
This Astros team doesn't need to be spending that sort of money on a reliever, even one as good as Hader can be when he's right. If he can return and author a couple strong months, the prospect of multiple playoff runs could entice a contender to fork over some real value — especially if Houston is willing to eat at least a portion of his remaining money. This isn't shaping up to be a banner deadline for lockdown relievers, which would make Hader stand out.
LHP Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
- Latest injury update: The setback Steele suffered late last month in his return from Tommy John surgery will reportedly keep him out until at least the All-Star break, according to Craig Counsell
The hits just keep on coming for this beleaguered Cubs rotation, which has already lost Cade Horton for the season and will be without Matthew Boyd for at least a month due to knee surgery. Steele was eligible to return from the IL in late May, but that's obviously out the window now, and his availability for the rest of the season is in question as well given that he hasn't thrown since early in the 2025 season.
This is a make-or-break season for the Cubs, to put it mildly. A full 60 percent of the team's rotation (Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon) could hit free agency this winter, as will two-thirds of the team's starting outfield (Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ). It's going to be an offseason of major change, which means it's time to put pedal to the medal to try and make a World Series run this year. Steele's setback only ups the urgency, and puts more pressure on Jed Hoyer to take a big rotation swing at the deadline.
OF Luis Robert Jr., New York Mets
- Latest injury update: According to Newsday's Laura Albanese, Robert Jr. has yet to resume baseball activities since landing on the IL in late April with a balky back
Reinforcements don't appear to be coming any time soon for the Mets' slumping offense, and with Francisco Lindor still in a walking boot, it's fair to wonder whether this team has enough juice to get back into the Wild Card picture by deadline season. If they can't, Robert Jr. figured to be an enticing trade chip, given his $20 million club option for 2027 and his power/speed profile. This injury might well torpedo that idea entirely, though, especially because Robert Jr. was already going to have a hard time convincing teams that he can stay healthy for a long period of time.
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