Tarik Skubal's arbitration case has turned into one of the stories of the offseason, and rightly so. He and the Tigers are an astonishing $13 million apart, and Scott Boras is to blame. Skubal filed at $32 million, hoping to compare his own resume with any starting pitcher in MLB, rather than just past arbitration cases.
There are viable arguments on both sides. First, the Tigers did offer Skubal what would've been a record-breaking raise and one of the richest starting pitcher arbitration contracts in MLB history. But those deals haven't aged well with arbitration and, as Boras and Skubal have outlined, he is a unique case. Boras is a bold personality and always goes to bat for his clients. In Skubal, a soon-to-be free agent, Boras can secure himself and a two-time Cy Young winner a $400 payday next offseason, but that all starts on Wednesday.
Inside Scott Boras's argument for Tarik Skubal
The number for Boras to beat is just over $25 million, which is the midway point between the Tigers offer for Skubal and his counter. There is no in between here. If Skubal proves beyond much doubt that he's worth over $25 million within the arbitration rules, he will receive the full $32 million in 2026.
The Tigers argument, which uses past precedents like the raise given to Jacob deGrom after a Cy Young season, and the record amount handed to David Price in his final year of arbitration, will be key to Detroit's attempts to keep Skubal at a shade over $19 million this season. What they don't account for is inflation, which Boras is sure to use to his advantage.
Player | Offer | Offer with inflation |
|---|---|---|
David Price | $19.75 million | $27 million |
Jacob deGrom | $17 million | $21.89 million |
Tarik Skubal | $19 million | $19 million |
As Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic points out, Price was more accomplished in his career when he received that $19.8 million payment. Also, deGrom had more bWAR than Skubal in the season he received that record-breaking raise. The Tigers will use these points.
But those offers were agreed upon a long time ago. deGrom only had one Cy Young when he received that record extension, while Price had just one in his entire career and wasn't nearly as filthy as Skubal.
What can Scott Boras gain with an arbitration victory?
Boras has a lot to gain in arbitration. First and foremost, there's the money at play. Most MLB agents take home about 5 percent of the salary they help negotiate. For Boras, that would be $1.6 million of Skubal's $32 million prize.
Most importantly, though, Boras can earn Skubal's trust. Essentially, it is the opposite of what the Tigers are doing by engaging in an arbitration hearing. Detroit will make arguments against Skubal's value, while Boras will build him up. Who do you think Skubal is going to trust more moving forward?
Any hope Detroit had of re-signing Skubal goes out the window on Wednesday. Boras always wants his clients to test free agency. As much as Skubal loves playing in Detroit in front of Tigers fans – as evidenced by his Detroit sports tour this winter – he will not play for an organization that he perceives doesn't believe in him. Boras will hammer that home no matter who wins this hearing.
What if the Tigers take down Skubal and Scott Boras
Boras has a reputation to uphold. Arbitration can be a tricky process and is hardly predictable. If anything, it has a lot to do with the arbiter themself, no matter how obvious a case may look from the outset.
The MLB superagent is attempting to set a new standard for young players everywhere, not just Skubal. Eventually, Paul Skenes could deal with the same charade. MLB and MLBPA are set to discuss a new Collective Bargaining Agreement next December. Should Skubal set a new record for starting pitchers, owners will have yet another controversial topic to chew on, as MLB's arbitration was put in place as a way for teams of all market sizes to keep their young players around, rather than lose them. In Skubal's case, when he does finally reach free agency, odds are he willing sign for a big-market team like the Dodgers or Mets, further playing into the financial imbalance of a sport that is fundamentally broken.
Boras could pull the pin from the grenade should he help Skubal win his case on Wednesday. Whether he's in the room or pulling strings behind the scenes, Boras is always up to something and it usually favors his players – as it should. If he fails with Skubal, the best pitcher in MLB, he fails for all players trying to achieve their market value from a young age. He's the good guy in this story.