The San Diego Padres made easily the biggest deal at this year's trade deadline, acquiring Mason Miller in a blockbuster with the Athletics. Acquiring a pitcher of his caliber, especially given the additional years of club control, sounds like an easy decision. But parting with Leo De Vries, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, in exchange for a reliever, is something many MLB fans are not behind.
Sure, the Padres have the best bullpen in the game by a country mile right now, but they have to hold a lead past the fourth or fifth inning in October for that to even matter. At the end of the day, while holding a lead is incredibly valuable, getting a lead to begin with in the postseason is very difficult. Miller doesn't help them do that when he's a reliever.
For the Padres to "win" this trade, there's a good chance they're going to at least consider moving Miller, once a starter with the Athletics, back to the rotation at some point. That's the only way they can justify parting with a player as talented as De Vries.
The Padres might want to move Miller to the rotation, but doing so is probably easier said than done.
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Moving Mason Miller to rotation comes with its share of challenges
There are several factors at play here. First and foremost, should anyone want this? The risks are pretty hard to ignore.
First and foremost, there's the injury risk. Miller throwing 104 mph in one-inning spurts three times a week has proven to be fine for his right arm, but how will his arm hold up if he throws in the upper-90s as a starter for 90+ pitches every fifth day? I mean, Miller only made six starts in 2023 largely because he missed substantial time with right forearm tightness - often a precursor to a major elbow injury. He's also missed time due to a sprained UCL and missed all of 2022 with a rotator cuff strain.
Should either side want to risk a major injury occurring? Additionally, should Miller, a player primed to make a ton of money as MLB's best reliever when he inevitably does hit free agency, be willing to risk a starting role without an extension of some kind? The Padres probably won't want to give him an extension without seeing him start some games, but it's hard to argue Miller should be willing to surpass a certain number of innings without security. We saw Garrett Crochet demand an extension if he was traded and asked to go far beyond his comfort level in innings just last season.
While a contract extension could be what holds up a potential move to the rotation, if Miller is asked to be a starter, he should feel comfortable that the Padres are the team asking him.
Padres are perfect team to get most out of Mason Miller as a starter
The Padres are an ideal team to convert Miller back to a starter, mainly because they've had success stories. Seth Lugo, once a starter who turned into a reliever with the New York Mets, signed with the Padres in the 2022 offseason, looking to start again. He had a rock-solid debut season in San Diego, leading to him signing with the Kansas City Royals in the 2023 offseason. He was the AL Cy Young runner-up in 2024, has pitched extremely well for the Royals this season, and recently signed a two-year extension. The Royals have reaped most of the rewards, but the Padres were the team to get Lugo back in a rotation.
Another example of this is Michael King. The New York Yankees allowed King to make nine starts for them down the stretch in 2023 after making just 10 starts combined in his first four big-league seasons. He pitched well enough for the Padres to prioritize acquiring him in the trade that sent Juan Soto to the Bronx. Sure enough, the right-hander made 30 starts for San Diego in 2024, and had a sub-3.00 ERA. He had been even better this season prior to landing on the IL in mid-May.
An injury to a recently converted starter isn't ideal, but King suffered the injury while sleeping. That's not the Padres' fault.
If Miller does make the transition to the rotation, he should feel more comfortable with the Padres than he would with any other team. It'll be interesting to see if that move does occur.