The New York Yankees began the AL East arms race a little early on Friday, trading for Colorado Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon. That addresses New York's biggest positional need and gives the Yankees a nice two-way boost ahead of the July 31 MLB trade deadline. Now it's time for the Toronto Blue Jays to respond in force.
While McMahon absolutely helps the Yankees, most rival fans are just happy it wasn't a true blockbuster addition like Eugenio Suárez. It leaves the door open for the Blue Jays to one-up the Yanks with an even better trade. Toronto can finally smell the World Series. This team has the best record in baseball. GM Ross Atkins needs to capitalize on this momentum and the well-documented spending power of Toronto's ownership group.
The Blue Jays' focus should be on improving the pitching staff around José Berríos and Kevin Gausman. The offense is producing plenty of pop, but Toronto's rotation pales in comparison to other top-shelf contenders like Detroit and Houston.
Of all the potential targets, Pittsburgh Pirates ace Mitch Keller feels like the best intersection of plausibility and fit.
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Blue Jays need to target Pirates' Mitch Keller after Yankees fire trade deadline starting gun
Keller is putting together his best MLB season to date at 29 years old. He's also under contract through 2028, peaking at $20.5 million in salary. In today's market, Keller's contract is bound to age well. He's not the shutdown ace fans might yearn for in the vein of full-strength Sandy Alcántara or Zac Gallen, but in terms of consistency and durability, Keller frequently laps the field.
Here's what a trade package might look like.
Toronto gets an immediate postseason-caliber starter in Keller, who has a 3.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 21 starts and 125.0 innings this season. Keller has at least 31 appearances and 29-plus starts in each of his last three seasons, on track for four straight. Injuries can strike at random, but Keller is a paragon of availability.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh gets a compelling package of prospects to reorient the roster. Yohendrick Pinago, 23, has a .737 OPS in 39 games with Triple-A Buffalo after mashing in Double-A. Josh Kasevich, 24, is an "organizational favorite," per MLB Pipeline, known for his workmanlike attitude and intense professionalism. Lázaro Estrada, 26, made his first big-league start earlier this month, allowing two hits and one earned run in four rock-solid innings against the Los Angeles Angels. He has a 5.08 ERA across 17 appearances (16 starts) in Triple-A.
Pirates add several soon-to-be MLB contributors while Blue Jays strengthen World Series odds
For Pittsburgh, this is a prime opportunity to add depth to the farm system while clearing the path for top-five MLB prospect Bubba Chandler in the rotation. The Pirates' only organizational strength right now is pitching depth and development. Losing Keller would hurt, but this is a lost season trending toward a bleak future. Getting younger and taking multiple prospect swings can't hurt.
Estrada can fill Keller's spot in the rotation if Pittsburgh doesn't think Chandler is immediately ready for a promotion. Meanwhile, Pinago and Kasevich — two of Toronto's three-highest ranked hitting prospects — can give the Pirates much-needed support offensively. Kasevich's intangibles would be valued in an organization desperate for consistency at the plate and in the field. Pinago, meanwhile, packs significant slugging potential, which Pittsburgh needs badly.
The Blue Jays get Keller, who probably sits third in the postseason rotation behind Berríos and Guasman. He will stick around and give Toronto multiple years of solid pitching, too. This is a win-win for both sides.