Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The St. Louis Cardinals could trade for Tarik Skubal if they so choose.
- Doing so would shock the Chicago Cubs, a team that makes a lot of sense for Skubal as well.
- In this mock trade, the deal would send a trio of starting pitching prospects to Detroit, including a top-100 overall prospect in baseball.
The Chicago Cubs are among several contenders expected to place their bid on Tarik Skubal ahead of the Aug. 3 MLB trade deadline. With the Detroit Tigers in free fall, it seems increasingly likely that the two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner will end up on the move.
But what if a surprise team — say, the St. Louis Cardinals — comes out of left field and puts up the capital necessary to land Skubal. The Cards' offense looks very real, but their pitching staff could hold them back from a deep run in October. Skubal changes that calculus, even if he's a half-season rental.
This Cardinals-Tigers trade package lands Tarik Skubal in St. Louis
The Cardinals aren't without talent in their farm system — Chaim Bloom very dilligently expanded their youth pool this past offseason — but St. Louis does lack the top-shelf prospects that Los Angeles, Chicago and other contenders might offer up.
As a result, that probably means Bloom needs to pepper Detroit with volume. How about three pitchers knocking on the MLB door? FanSided's Robert Murray spoke with rival GMs, all of whom suggested one MLB top-100 prospect alongside other top-10 system prospects could get the job done. This deal delivers on that front.
Why the Cardinals say yes
For the Cardinals, this is a very simple win-now proposition. If Bloom believes in his team, Skubal is the ultimate upgrade. The Cardinals need to do something about their rotation if the goal is to truly contend for a World Series crown at season's end. Skubal is coming off of elbow surgery, but when right, he's as close as you can get to a guaranteed win every fourth game in October.
Before the injury, Skubal was up to his usual tricks with a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across seven starts, with 45 strikeouts in 43.1 innings. The Cardinals' rotation is awfully volatile. Matthew Liberatore (4.76 ERA) just is not more than a fourth- or fifth-starter type on a real contender. Dustin May has solid underlying metrics and he has performed better of late, but his whole career screams "don't trust this." Kyle Leahy and Andre Pallante really shouldn't be relied upon in a playoffs setting.
The lone exception — the silver lining of this Cardinals staff — is Michael McGreevy. The 25-year-old has unlocked a new gear this season, with a 2.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 11 starts and 60.1 innings. He serves up a deep arsenal of pitches and tends to keep hitters on the wrong foot. Now, his underlying metrics are troubling (5.64 xERA), but for now, McGreevy is in a groove. The Cardinals can feel much better about him as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in the playoffs, rather than a headliner.
Skubal is the proper ace St. Louis lacks. It's that simple. He won't re-sign in free agency — we don't even need to pretend — but if Skubal and the Cards can muster one magical run, that'd all be worth it.
Why the Tigers say yes
Detroit can probably get a more premium trade chip elsewhere, but how many teams can comfortably offer up three pitchers who are all within a year or two of their MLB debuts? St. Louis has pitching prospects galore. A lot of them are flawed, hurt or both, but Detroit has a strong track record of pitcher development.
Jurrangelo Cijntje was the big prize of the Brendan Donovan trade and he's the centerpiece of this deal. Once a switch pitcher, St. Louis has focused on developing him as a full-time righty, as he's similar more effective from that side of the mound. He has taken some lumps in the minors this season (5.21 ERA across 10 starts), but Cijntje has a plus-plus fastball and a plus slider, which play off each in electrifying fashion. He's only 23 and could debut for the Tigers later this season.
Quinn Mathews is a tall lefty with a sweeping curve and a devastating changeup, which play nicely off a mid-90s fastball. He faces durability and command concerns, but the stuff is worth believing in.
Brycen Mautz isn't as highly touted, but he's one of St. Louis' most productive minor league arms at the moment (2.64 ERA across 10 starts in Triple-A). He throws out of a deceptively low arm slot and gets a ton of movement on his slider and curve. The command is solid. He's durable. He could help Detroit right away.
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