The Detroit Tigers aren't trading Tarik Skubal until the deadline at best. There, I said it. Skubal's name is floated in rumors because he's in the final year of his contract – now worth $32 million – but he is not the most likely upgrade for the Los Angeles Dodgers in particular. That would be Sandy Alcantara, who is finally starting to sound like his former self.
Alcantara has been through hell and back in his injury rehab. He missed the better part of two seasons, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2024. The 30-year-old didn't look much like himself after the fact, and had a 5.36 ERA in 2025. However, what that number doesn't showcase is the fact that Alcantara improved as the season went on. If the Dodgers want to buy low on one of the best pitchers in baseball, now is the time to do it.
Why Sandy Alcantara's trade stock is so low
Alcantara is injury prone. It really is that simple. Trading for a starting pitcher after they've undergone some form of Tommy John surgery is a risk because that elbow injury could always come back. In fact, for many it does due to improper technique. However, the good news for the Dodgers or any possible Alcantara suitor is that the player himself feels better than he has in a long time. Here is what Alcantara had to say before reporting to spring training.
“Coming back from TJ, you're not going to do great since the first day,” Alcantara said at Marlins media day. “You’ve got to be step by step. Mentally, I was thinking too much, people talking negative about myself. They don't know that I was the best pitcher in 2022, but yeah, that's the past. I know it, and I’ve just got to be able to be healthy this year, showing the people in Spring Training that I can do great and just got to keep believing, and those opportunities that this organization can give to me.”
Like Alcantara said, 2022 is a long time ago. The stats back up some reservations about how Alcantara will bounce back in 2026, especially on a losing team in Miami.
Season | ERA |
|---|---|
2021 | 3.19 |
2022 | 2.28 |
2023 | 4.14 |
2025 | 5.36 |
Dodgers can get a bargain in Sandy Alcantara trade
The Dodgers don't need a frontline starting pitcher. Andrew Friedman has made that incredibly obvious. Heck, LA's starting rotation is deep as-is. But this is not a franchise known for settling. They go for the throat, and odds are Friedman will change his tune at some point this season. Rather than surprising us all at the deadline with a deal for Skubal or another pitcher on an expiring contract, why not add Alcantata on the cheap? If any team can help the former NL Cy Young winner revive his career, it is Los Angeles.
The Dodgers might have to pay up a bit more than this, but given Alcantara's struggles, a former top-100 prospect who has proved himself at the MLB level in Sheehan and another Dodgers top-10 prospect ought to be the icing on the cake. Sure, Los Angeles could include River Ryan or another top prospect instead of Tibbs III, but the Marlins would likely want some variety in their player pool.
Would the Dodgers make this trade?
The Dodgers would have to consider it. While Los Angeles does not lack pitching, there's a big difference between a good rotation and a great one. Alcantara offers an affordable contract (club option for 2027) and room for improvement. While LA's rotation has Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell at the top, they are by no means perfect, and the vast majority of this pitching staff has a checkered injury past much like Alcantara's. What the Dodgers can control is depth, and if they add Alcantara, odds are enough of these former aces can stay healthy to make a run at the three-peat.
Pitcher | ERA |
|---|---|
Blake Snell | 2.35 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 2.49 |
*Shohei Ohtani | 2.87 (14 GP) |
Tyler Glasnow | 3.19 |
Sandy Alcantara | 5.36 |
River Ryan | 1.33 |
Gavin Stone | 4.52 |
Roki Sasaki | 4.46 |
That's a lot of options, meaning the Dodgers shouldn't overpay for a starting pitcher. Alcantara and the Marlins need LA more than the Dodgers need them. That should play into their favor, as Alcantara can be had and ought to be traded before the deadline, since that's when he'll be most valuable. Two postseason (at minimum) with Alcantara on the roster are well worth it.
Would the Marlins make this trade?
If I ran the Marlins, I would've traded Alcantara a long time ago. Miami was never going to keep him beyond his contract years. Instead, the Marlins waited until Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery and thus lost most of his value. Miami's best bet, at this point, is to either trade Alcantara to a pitcher-needy team on name value alone, or wait until the trade deadline and hope he has a bounce-back season.
Sheehan has some potential, both as a starter and relief pitcher. Miami values that kind of flexibility, and Sheehan should be much cheaper than Alcantara in the years to come. Tibbs III is more of a wild card, but he jumped up to a top-10 Dodgers prospect last year and could see time in right field as early as next season on a team like Miami's.