An argument could be made that Tarik Skubal's arbitration case was the most controversial in MLB history. Heck, after he won — ensuring he'll make a whopping $32 million in 2026 — it'd feel wrong to say this wasn't the most controversial in MLB history. Skubal's win ushered a new era in MLB, one that threatens to upend the sport's economic model.
It shattered David Price's record of a $19.75 million payday for a pitcher in arbitration. It even broke Juan Soto's $31 million record for any player in arbitration. Here's how Skubal was able to earn this landmark victory, and what it means for the process moving forward.
Tigers assumed arbiters wouldn't want to break from precedent
What made this case so controversial was that Skubal requested a $32 million salary in arbitration while the Detroit Tigers held firm at $19 million. Sure, Detroit's mark was less than Price's record back in 2015, which they almost certainly knew wasn't the best look. But Skubal's ask seemed so outlandish that the Tigers, based on precedent, felt confident they'd win the case if it went to arbitration. Clearly, they were wrong.
Skubal proved that pitchers of his caliber must be judged differently. He's won back-to-back Cy Young awards and is almost unanimously considered to be the best in the world at what he does right now. Filing a deal worth less than the record, which was set over a decade ago, was insulting.
The Tigers tried to get away with being absurdly cheap, while Skubal, flaunting his accomplishments, exposed Detroit.
Tarik Skubal was a special case
Had just about any pitcher filed at this number, or really anything close, he would have lost. Skubal was the exception, not the rule. His case was centered on a clause in the CBA that makes exception for "special accomplishment," allowing the lefty to compare his salaries to other players of similar value — even those who have already earned free agent contracts. Skubal built his case around starting-pitching salaries that have exceeded $40 million, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
Skubal was the first AL pitcher since Pedro Martinez to win back-to-back Cy Young awards. He's one of just 23 pitchers in the history of the game to even win multiple Cy Youngs, let alone do so in consecutive years. He seems to only be getting better, as we saw this past postseason. This was a special case.
It's the kind of case only Skubal could've won, and the ripple effects will be felt for quite some time.
Tarik Skubal ushered in a new era with his victory
Forget the fact that the Tigers had to pay him $13 million more than they were hoping. This outcome will change a lot about the future of the sport.
Frontline starters will now have this contract to turn to when they're in arbitration. Sure, very few will have the kind of resume Skubal has right now, but even guys like Logan Gilbert and Joe Ryan (who are currently in arbitration) figure to see massive pay increases. They won't get to Skubal's $32 million mark, but they figure to earn a whole lot more than they would've previously.
In the case of a guy like Paul Skenes, he figures to be next in line to shatter Skubal's record. He's still a way's away from reaching his final year of arbitration, but his first year in this system will come next offseason. He's closer than you might think to potentially pricing himself out of the Pittsburgh Pirates' price range altogether.
Whether Skenes will even get to his third arbitration year, though, remains to be seen. The current MLB CBA expires next winter, and this outcome has the league barreling closer to a lockout. Chances are, after Skubal and agent Scott Boras just set a new arbitration precedent, the whole arbitration process will be altered, if not discarded altogether.
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