Tarik Skubal just won his high-stakes arbitration case and will earn $32 million in 2026, per ESPN's Jeff Passan. This outcome makes Skubal the highest-paid arbitration-eligible player in MLB history, as he surpasses the $31 million Juan Soto made in his final season of arbitration.
A deal of this magnitude comes with its share of winners and losers. Let's dive into everything.
Tarik Skubal arbitration winners
Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal is obviously the biggest winner of this outcome. Instead of earning $19 million as the Tigers had hoped, the southpaw will make $32 million, earning himself a nice chunk of change a year before he enters free agency. If Skubal is able to make $32 million in arbitration, the question of how much he can make when he's a free agent is one everyone will be pondering for a year.
Scott Boras
Skubal didn't win this case by himself. Having Scott Boras, one of the best agents in sports history, representing him, obviously helped. Boras continues to prove that he's still at the top of his game, and he earns a decent-sized check himself as a result of this outcome.
Tigers' chances of keeping Skubal past 2026
The Detroit Tigers might not want to pay Skubal $13 milion more than they were hoping to, but if they have any intention of keeping him beyond 2026, this helps. Sure, this probably made Skubal more expensive, but had they won the case, what are the odds Skubal would've wanted to re-sign with Detroit? We know what arbitration cases can do to relationships with players and teams - just ask fellow ace Corbin Burnes. I don't know whether the Tigers want to pay Skubal as a free agent, but Skubal winning the case probably gives them a glimmer of hope that a long-term deal can get done.
Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes is six years younger than Skubal and isn't even in arbitration yet, but he's going to hit arbitration next year. No, he won't make $32 million the first time he becomes arbitration-eligible, but Skubal making this much money paves the way for Skenes to break records himself. By 2029, when Skenes enters his final arbitration year, he's got a good shot of surpassing the $32 million Skubal made thanks to this outcome, assuming he continues on the trajectory he's on. Whether he's on the Pittsburgh Pirates at that time or not remains to be seen.
Tarik Skubal arbitration losers
Chris Illitch
I think this helps the Tigers' odds of keeping Skubal long-term, but it goes without saying this isn't the outcome team owner Chris Ilitch wanted. The Tigers tried to get away with giving Skubal just $19 million, but Ilitch has to fork over an additional $13 million. This isn't much in the grand scheme of things when discussing a multi-billionaire like Ilitch, but as we've seen him try to pinch pennies in recent years, again, this isn't what he wanted.
Teams with arbitration-eligible pitchers
The same goes for teams with arbitration-eligible pitchers. As mentioned above, if Skubal is able to make $32 million now, who knows what a pitcher like Skenes will make in his final year of arbitration when he'll be younger and potentially more accomplished? If Skubal is able to make $32 million now, who knows how much aces like Logan Gilbert and Joe Ryan will make as they approach free agency? It won't be $32 million in a single year until they hit the open market, but their prices just went way up. Perhaps that leads to a team like the Minnesota Twins, in particular, moving on from Ryan.
Teams that wanted to trade for Skubal
An offseason trade involving Tarik Skubal has never been likely, but a deal now feels less likely than ever. Not only did the Tigers make a win-now move by signing Framber Valdez the evening before this Skubal decision was made, but Skubal is now making $32 million. How many teams outside of the typical big market behemoths would be willing to pay a pitcher that much money, especially after the major offseason moves have been made? Probably not many, even for a pitcher of Skubal's caliber. Perhaps something happens at the trade deadline, but for now, it'd be shocking if Skubal didn't take the ball on Opening Day for Detroit.
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