The Pittsburgh Pirates are lucky enough to roster Paul Skenes, a pitcher off to one of the greatest starts in MLB history. (Lest you think that's hyperbolic: He has a 1.96 ERA in 55 career starts. He just won the Cy Young award in his first full season and probably would've won it in 2025 if he'd pitched the whole year in the Majors.)
But while Pirates fans and the organization are enjoying watching Skenes in black and yellow right now, it's hard not to think about his future. After watching Tarik Skubal win his arbitration hearing, it feels as if Skenes' contract is nothing more than a ticking time bomb for Pittsburgh.
Tarik Skubal's arbitration win directly impacts Paul Skenes
Skubal won his arbitration case against the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday and will earn $32 million in his final year ahead of free agency. It's easy to brush this aside, since Skenes is only entering his second full season, but next winter will be Skenes' first year of arbitration. No longer will the Pirates get to pay him the league minimum to give them Cy Young value.
No, Skenes won't come close to making $32 million in his first year of arbitration, but since he'll be several years younger (and likely more accomplished) than Skubal by the time he reaches his final arbitration year in 2029, odds are, Skenes is going to fetch more than $32 million. And that's just in his final year of club control.
There's no telling what Skenes's ceiling will be as a free agent if he continues on this absurd trajectory. Forget free agency: What are the odds Skenes even finishes arbitration in a Pirates uniform, knowing how they operate?
Pirates will have to extend way out of their comfort zone to keep Paul Skenes through arbitration
The Pirates are known for their reluctance to spend money. That's what makes their acquisitions of hitters like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn, two players who didn't even cost that much, so refreshing. It's rare to see the Pirates spend on anybody. Their recent payroll figures, according to Spotrac, reflect that.
Year | Pirates Payroll | MLB Rank |
|---|---|---|
2026 | $109.9 million | 24th |
2025 | $108.6 million | 27th |
2024 | $122.9 million | 26th |
2023 | $89.7 million | 28th |
2022 | $75.3 million | 27th |
The Pirates have had a bottom-six payroll in each of the last five years, and they haven't spent more than four times what Skubal will make in one season. Do you really expect Bob Nutting to pay Skenes upwards of $32 million while also fielding a semi-competitive team?
Bryan Reynolds' eight-year, $106.75 million extension, one that pays him a little over $13 million annually, is the largest deal handed out in club history. Mitch Keller's $15.4 million AAV over his five-year, $77 million extension is the largest by annual value. Does anyone really expect them to more than double it for Skenes? Even if they somehow do, the team around him will be as cheap as any.
It's a matter of when, not if, Skenes pitches for the last time for the Pirates
I hate to come to this conclusion, but what else can be derived from the Skubal outcome? Skenes is going to price himself out of the Pirates' comfort zone to the point where it's a matter of when, not if, he pitches his last game for the club.
Might the Pirates keep him through arbitration? Potentially. Skenes is so valuable, not only to winning games but also to getting fans to show up to PNC Park. Losing him would be detrimental on multiple fronts. Trading him to get the sort of absurd haul the Tigers are likely going to decide against getting for Skubal is another option. It might be the more painful option of the two, but it'd give Pittsburgh the best chance of competing long-term.
What's abundantly clear is that the Pirates are not going to pay Skenes what he'll get from other big-market teams in free agency. His price only went up on Thursday, and that is the worst-case scenario for Pittsburgh. I don't know what his future holds, but whether they try and keep him in town for as long as possible or try to sell high before prices get astronomical, what I do know is whatever they decide will feel like the wrong choice, because it'll result in possibly the greatest pitcher of his generation pitching for another team.
This was always the likely outcome, but Skubal's hearing makes it crystal clear that Skenes' days in Pittsburgh are officially numbered. This should force action from the Pirates' front office.
Pirates must do whatever they can to capitlize on Paul Skenes window
The Pirates have two or three years to work with before Skenes becomes too expensive for them to realistically build a team around based on how they've operated in the past. This means that it's go time: It's time for the Pirates to go places where they've never been before to try and win with Skenes.
This doesn't mean just entertaining entering bidding wars for stars like Kyle Schwarber and Framber Valdez, it means winning them. The Pirates must go out of their comfort zone to try and win with Skenes while they can still afford him.
If they don't do that, trading him sooner rather than later to get an absurd haul is the path they should pursue. They won't do this, but if they aren't going to do whatever they can to win with Skenes while they can afford him, they might as well reset and try again with a more balanced roster.
All Pirates fans can do is hope for the best and appreciate what they have while they have it. Unfortunately, the clock has started on Skenes' future, and it's ticking a lot faster than any Pirates fan might've envisioned.
More MLB news and analysis: