Almost as soon as news broke Friday afternoon that star Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami's posting process had begun — bringing him one step closer to signing with an MLB team this winter — the groaning began. As is seemingly an annual tradition at this point, one of the best players in Japan was coming to the States. And, as is also seemingly an annual tradition at this point, of course that player would eventually sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
At least, that was the refrain all around the baseball internet. And not without good reason: It feels as though every single time the Dodgers have wanted a player from Japan in recent years, they've been able to get him, whether via sheer financial might (Yoshinobu Yamamoto), their popularity in east Asia (Roki Sasaki) or both (Shohei Ohtani). So why would this winter be any different? What was the point in any other fan base even bothering to get their hopes up?
Well, we're here to tell you. Murakami isn't the only intriguing Japanese free agent who could be headed Stateside this offseason. But unlike in winters past, the Dodgers might find themselves getting shut out entirely. Some of that will be by choice; but some of it might be a long-awaited leveling of the playing field.
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Why the Dodgers might not be a match for Munetaka Murakami and other Japanese free agents this offseason
Murakami is part of a big three of Japanese stars, all of whom have been rumored to have requested posting from their NPB clubs — and none of whom appear to be ticketed for the Dodgers, at least not right now. Murakami is the biggest name, the man whose single-season record 56 homers in 2022 earned him a reputation as the Japanese Babe Ruth, so we'll start there.
His market could get into the nine-figure range, but it's hard to imagine the Dodgers being too heavily in on him. Mostly because it's hard to imagine where exactly he'd play for L.A. Murakami's defense at third base is likely too poor to survive in the Majors, but even if it weren't, the Dodgers just picked up their 2026 option on Max Muncy. And even if they wanted to slide Murakami across the diamond, there's Freddie Freeman at first base and Ohtani as the everyday DH. It's simply not a fit, and that's even before we get to how Andrew Friedman and Co. might feel about how his sky-high K rate might translate to the Majors.
There are plenty of other teams for whom Murakami would fill a much more pressing need, and many of them — like the Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Braves and potentially Phillies — come with pretty deep pockets. Los Angeles will likely let them drive up the price on Murakami while trying to fill holes elsewhere on the roster.
Of course, Murakami isn't the only potential Japanese free agent to know. There's also right-hander Tatsuya Imai, who may or may not be posted by his NPB team but reportedly has interest in coming to the Majors. Imai has a lot to recommend him, from premium fastball velocity to an improving array of offspeed pitches that offer him a variety of approaches, and the Dodgers' track record with pitchers from Japan needs no introduction.
But again, are the Dodgers best-positioned to win this bidding war if he does in fact become a free agent? I'm skeptical: L.A.'s dance card is pretty full in the rotation, with Ohtani, Yamamoto, Snell and Tyler Glasnow the headliners but Sasaki also returning to a starting role and youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Justin Wrobleski waiting in the wings. The Dodgers know better than anyone that you can never have too much pitching, and maybe Imai just really wants to join superstars like Ohtani and Yamamoto, but again, other teams with deep pockets have a more pressing need and are likely to go further with their offers.
And not just because they want the player in question. The Dodgers' dominance in Japan has been well-documented; no MLB team has invested in establishing a presence in the country more, and we've seen the dividends on the field of late. That success has shown the 29 other front offices just what they're missing, and it seems like they're determined to play catchup: The Yankees and Mets, to name just two, have ramped up their efforts in recent months, taking multiple scouting trips during the NPB season.
None of that matters unless and until the results arrive. At a certain point, the other big-market teams are going to have to force Japanese players to consider going somewhere else, whether that requires some frequent-flyer miles or going above and beyond the market or both. Which makes this offseason a unique opportunity: Whether it's Murakami, Imai or fellow corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, this year's crop wouldn't seem to line up well with what the Dodgers are looking to do this offseason. Granted, "need" has never stopped Friedman before, but the rest of the league and its fans would do well not to assume anything entering free agency.