The anticipation for Munetaka Murakami coming from Japan to MLB this offseason ended just like everyone though it would, signing with the Chicago White Sox — wait, what? Yes, the home run king of the NPB is officially heading stateside with just over 24 hours until the end of his posting window as ESPN insider Jeff Passan reported that Murakami is signing a two-year, $34 million contract with the surprise White Sox to play first base.
Because the White Sox are just a season removed from producing one of the worst seasons in MLB history, it might come as a surprise to see Murakami, one of the biggest names and highest-upside players in free agency heading to the Southside. At the same time, Murakami's market was quiet and flummoxing for weeks leading up to his deadline to sign, which was at 5 p.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 22. The White Sox jumped in as late suitors, though, and now have a deal — and it's one that is truly genius for them to take the risk with.
The upside of Munetaka Murakami is clear for the White Sox, but with less risk
Murakami will be just 26 years old by Opening Day for the White Sox, where he's slated to play first base. And it's not hard to see why he's been the object of so much fascination in MLB free agency when you look at his numbers in Japan.
Across eight NPB seasons and just shy of 900 games played, Murakami has posted a .951 OPS with 246 home runs, 146 doubles and 647 RBI (per Baseball Reference). In all competitions in Japan with the Yakult Swallows, that's a .945 OPS with 265 homers in just over 1,000 games. He has a legitimate 70/80 grade power tool and could be a 30+ home run bat if he translates to the major leaguers.
Initially after his posting this offseason, though, there were concerns about how he matched up against velocity. While that adjustment just based on a small sample size is always something to watch for players coming over from Japan, the .095 batting average against 95+ mph pitches that floated around turned out not to be the case, even if the batting average was still below .250. However, the risk is still there.
While velocity may not be the problem, the strikeout rate, as well as the underlying numbers with zone-contact percentage and chase rate, have been well worse than MLB average in those departments, and that's while facing lesser competition. Furthermore, there have been concerns about his defense, which seem founded as he's already being slotted in at first base and not third base, which it was thought might be an option for Murakami defensively.
At the same time, though, what do the White Sox have to lose by taking the roll of the dice on the upside despite some of the red flags? This organization is in the midst of a large-scale rebuild, and if they were to develop a relationship with a guy in Murakami who ends up being a hit and developing into a power-hitting star, that opens all kinds of doors for Chicago to make strides in said rebuild.
Murakami gives the White Sox a plethora of options for their future
For starters, let's just look at the possibility of Murakami actually not translating to MLB and struggling with the move. Though a two-year, $34 million deal isn't nothing for an organization for the White Sox, they're operating with such a minimal and cheap overall payroll right now that they can afford to take a short-term swing. If it doesn't work out, that's not going to be penal for the Southsiders in any meaningful way — they still have cheap young talent throughout their system and the flexibility to make moves when and if a window opens.
But what makes this genius for the White Sox is the possibility of Murakami realizing his potential at, again, just 26 years old at the start of next season. There is the possibility that he's a prodigious enough power threat at the plate that, if he adjusts to MLB pitching and is launching balls into the stands, that he could be a presence to jumpstart the rebuild in Chicago. There are flashes from some of the young pieces in this organization already, and it's a non-zero chance that Murakami could be a spark to further take steps forward with this team in the near future.
Even if that weren't to be the case, though, Murakami still fits right into a rebuild if he does even show promise of getting near his potential as a power hitter in MLB.
It's probably unlikely that the rebuild is going to be realized with the White Sox over the next two seasons that Murakami's contract spans. However, if things go positively with his transition, he immediately becomes a plus trade asset. Teams that weren't willing to take the free agency risk on him can let the White Sox take that plunge, and then offer their assets that fit into Chicago's acquisition of talent in this rebuild to then get in on Murakami early, potentially with hopes of a longer-term deal then materializing.
Whether he's around for beyond the two years, whether he helps light a fire with this young core, or whether he becomes a valuable trade asset, the White Sox are smart to get involved here and make this deal. It sets them up to better their future, and does so without the risk that contenders seemed hesitant to take because, well, they almost have nothing to lose in their current state of affairs.