Game 1 of the NBA Finals was an instant classic. The Pacers came back from a 15-point deficit and 19 first-half turnovers to steal a win in dramatic fashion. Their first lead of the game came with 0.3 seconds left on the clock as Tyrese Halliburton sank a pull-up jumper from the wing to give them a 111-110 win.
The win gives the Pacers a slight edge in the series, but just makes the NBA Finals MVP race muddier. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was, statistically, the star of Game 1 with 38 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals. But, of course, his team lost. Haliburton was the Pacers' hero, but his line wasn't overwhelming — 14 points on 13 shots, 10 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 turnovers. Several other Pacers put up impressive lines — 19 points and 10 rebounds for Pascal Siakam, 17 points and 5 rebounds for Obi Toppin, 15 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks for Myles Turner. By narrative, it's Haliburton. By the numbers, it could be anyone.
But both teams boast deep supporting casts of crucial role players, many of whom are capable of taking over for their team on any given night. Haliburton and SGA still seem like the safest picks, especially after Game 1, but this race is wide open.
Who is the favorite to win NBA Finals MVP after Game 1?
It should come as no surprise that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still the overwhelming favorite to win Finals MVP. He won regular-season MVP and has been tremendous in the playoffs, averaging 29.8 points, 6.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game, shooting 47.1 percent from the field. His odds slipped because the Thunder dropped Game 1, but OKC is still likely favored to win the series and SGA is their best player. It makes sense that he's on top.
Updated NBA Finals MVP odds
After into Game 1 of the NBA Finals, here are Finals MVP odds, per ESPN.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-280)
- Tyrese Haliburton (+310)
- Pascal Siakam (+1000)
- Jalen Williams (+5000)
- Chet Holmgren (+10000)
- Myles Turner (+20000)
- Aaron Nesmith (+25000)
- Luguentz Dort (+30000)
- Alex Caruso (+50000)
Biggest risers and fallers in the MVP race
Obviously, the biggest difference here was the shift between Tyrese Haliburton, who went from +700 to +310 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who went the other way, from -625 to -280. The odds still reflect the fact that the Thunder are a strong favorite and SGA is almost certainly the Finals MVP if OKC does indeed win.
The other big mover was Pascal Siakam, who has the third-best odds and went from +1600 to +1000. Haliburton's big shot keeps him ahead, but Siakam was arguably the Pacers most effective player in Game 1 and if he keeps scoring as the Pacers pull off the upset, he has a good chance of sneaking in.
Past Finals MVP trends that could matter
The easiest way to identify an Finals MVP is to look for the leading scorer on the winning team. Only twice in recent memory has that not been the case — LeBron winning over Anthony Davis in 2020, and Andre Iguodala winning over Steph Curry in 2015.
Another notable trend is how rarely point guards have won Finals MVP, particularly in the past few years. Going back to 2000, we've seen just three point guards win the award — Chauncey Billups in 2004, Tony Parker in 2007 and Steph Curry in 2022.
Putting those two things together may not bode well for Haliburton — a point guard who has been outscored by Siakam in these playoffs. However, SGA is also (nominally) a point guard which means we could see this trend bucked either way.