NBA MVP rankings: Anthony Davis' two-way dominance is hard to overlook

The NBA’s MVP award is a fickle thing. What are voters even looking for? How much do points matter? Wins, rebounds, assists, defense, plus-minus? Is voter fatigue a real thing? There has never been a consensus set of criteria, but a lot of it just comes down to narrative. Who’s the best story with a reasonably good statistical case on a good team?

Then there's these types of exercises where we overreact to small samples that contribute disproportionately to other small samples because of the anchoring effect they have being at the very beginning of the season. But where would the internet be if we didn't have hot takes to flame and look back on with embarrassment?

Based on how things have started in 2024-25, there is reason to believe this year's MVP award could go to some new blood. Nikola Jokic has won this award many times recently but his team has sputtered out of the gate. Joel Embiid has yet to suit up this season and is unlikely to hit the 65-game threshold to qualify for the award at all. Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up huge numbers, but the "sputtering" used to describe the Nuggets' start would be welcomed with open arms by the Bucks if they could have it, as things are looking real ugly in the early going.

With the most recent winners starting off slow for one reason or another, could we see a first-time winner or perhaps even an American-born winner for the first time since 2017-18? Let's take a look at a few players who have stood out so far in this young season.

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Here's a look at a way-too-early list of MVP candidates.

With the slow starts of guys like Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, we're going to give a little love to a key member of one of two remaining undefeated teams in the Association. At 7-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers sit atop the Eastern Conference standings with a plus-16.3 net rating while sporting a top-five offense and defense, according to Cleaning the Glass data.

In what can be considered a bit of an ensemble cast from a statistical perspective, Evan Mobley is going to take this spot as a defensive monster who has started to take on more offensive responsibility and is doing well with it. Mobley has by far the best on/off differential of any starter on the team, an indication of his immense two-way impact.

His calling card will always be his defense, as both a highly capable perimeter defender and one of the better rim protectors in the league. Mobley ranks in the top ten in contested shots per game and holds opposing shooters to a minus-10.2 field goal percentage on shots he defends, per NBA.com. He also ranks 78th percentile in defending pick-and-roll ball handlers and 94th percentile defending isolations so far this year. These are all fantastic metrics that show why the Cavs have a 105.2 defensive rating when he is on the court (87th percentile) and why he is in early-season contention for Defensive Player of the Year.

On the offensive end, he is at a career-high usage rate as he explores the boundaries of his game to try to expand how effective he can be. He is scoring a career high (17.7 points per game) in his lowest amount of playing time for his career, showing improvements as a driver from the perimeter or mid-post in his ability to generate shots. This aggressiveness has shown up in nearly double the amount of drives he attempts, as he’s currently logging 9.3 drives per game, compared to last season’s 4.7. He's also taking slightly more 3-pointers (though still not many) so far this season and hitting them at a 41-percent clip, for what it's worth.

He doesn't have the gaudy numbers of your typical MVP candidate but someone on this Cavs team needs some love for their blistering start.

It should never be a surprise to see Nikola Jokic on an MVP list at this point. Having won three of the last four awards for good reason, this man continues to be an absolute machine. He’s the most unstoppable offensive force in the world who just can’t seem to be slowed down.

Jokic is flirting with a 30-point per game triple double so far this season, which is just nutty at the center position. His on/off differential is also a preposterous plus-41.1 so far this season, though some of that credit (blame) could go to his reserve teammates for that.

He doesn't look aesthetically like the archetypal midrange shooter a la DeMar DeRozan or Kevin Durant, but Jokic is likely the best midrange shooter in the league, particularly in the non-restricted area of the paint where, he scores more than any player in the league. Let's not forget that he's top five in the league in assists as well, generating shots for his teammates unlike most players in the history of the game, also logging 17.7 potential assists per game, which trails only Trae Young this season.

Jokic will never be anyone's Defensive Player of the Year, and he does leave something to be desired when it comes to protecting the rim. But he absolutely shuts down any inkling of offensive rebounding by the opponent, never fouls and gets a whole lot of deflections (second in the league) and steals, providing non-traditional but still very tangible value on that end.

Jokic is only this low on the list due to his team's mediocre start to the season. If his team picks up steam as the year rolls along, he'll be right at the top of this list yet again but will have to compete with voter fatigue to earn his fourth MVP award.

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. Jayson Tatum finished in the top six in MVP voting and made the All-NBA First Team in each of the last three seasons but has never won the award. Hell, he didn't even win MVP of the Eastern Conference Finals or NBA Finals as his team won a title in 2023-24. Nevertheless, he is the rock on which the Celtics have built their foundation and he shows no signs of slowing down. Tatum is the best player on the league's best team, so he is always going to get a look in the MVP race.

Whether it's part of a revenge tour or not, Tatum has come out hot to start this year, torching the Knicks for eight 3-pointers in the very first game of the season on his way to Eastern Conference Player of the Week honors. His team is 6-1 and pacing the league with the best offense, firing 3-point attempts from every angle possible. He is also a plus-rebounder, a very good defender and is even putting up a career high in steal rate to boot. He's a two-way threat in the purest sense of the term, is as steady as they come and his team runs at a 111.7 defensive rating when he's on the court (63rd percentile).

He has drastically reduced his number of midrange shot attempts this season, leaning all the way into the 3-point shot and it has served him well.  He's putting up career highs in points (30.3), 3-point attempts (11.3), steals (1.9) and true shooting percentage (63.2) so far this year and has shown to be one of the most consistent players in the league year after year. His pull-up 3 continues to be a dangerous weapon, where he hits over three per game, good for third in the NBA.

Tatum will inevitably continue to suffer a bit from his exceptional supporting cast, making it difficult to break through and win an MVP award. The Celtics have a top six (when healthy) that is as deep and synergistic as any we've seen for decades, but let's just take a minute to appreciate Tatum for his individual brilliance here.

As the first week's Western Conference Player of the Week, Anthony Davis has been lighting it up to start this season. His Lakers sit at 4-2, with some impressive wins over the Wolves, Suns and Kings early on. Like seemingly every head coach before him, JJ Redick has publicly stated his desire to empower Davis to be the focal point of the team on both ends of the floor and so far it looks like it may have finally clicked.

Even just his raw numbers are bonkers. He leads the league in scoring (31.8 points per game) while adding 12 rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks per night as well. On the defensive end, he is 73rd percentile or better in block rate, steal rate, defensive rebound rate and even foul rate. If you're looking for an explanation of the Lakers' continued advantage in the free throw battle, look no further than his one percent committed foul rate and 21.7 percent rate drawing shooting fouls. His size and athleticism are near impossible to contain on both ends of the floor.

Davis is third in the league in points off paint touches per game (10.2) while being just 13th in raw paint touches themselves, demonstrating elite efficiency in this area (75.7 percent field goals).Perhaps even more importantly, he is scoring 6.2 points per game on 6.3 elbow touches as well, showing his ability to attack from multiple positions on the floor. On the other end, he's holding opponents to a minus-6.5 percent field goal percentage differential on shots he defends and is top ten in the league in contested shots per game (9.3).

A fully actualized Davis who has completely taken the reigns from LeBron James as the night-to-night star is a terrifying proposition for opponents. If he can sustain this production, the Lakers will have a whole different outlook on their immediate future. They are a different animal when the playoffs come around in this scenario and could even be more open to making a big move in-season to add more high-end talent as Davis carries them to new heights. This is the AD fans have been hoping for his whole career, so here's hoping he can keep it up.

Last year's runner-up for the MVP award, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is looking like one of the favorites to take it this year. His team remains undefeated at 6-0 with by far the league's best defense, thanks in large part to them forcing opponents to turn the ball over more than 20 percent of their possessions. SGA is a huge part of this, logging a 2.4 percent steal rate (81st percentile) and 1.9 percent block rate (100th percentile) from the guard position.

On the offensive end, Gilgeous-Alexander puts constant pressure on the paint, tirelessly logging 18.5 drives per game, which is currently fourth in the entire league. He also shoots 51 percent on these drives, which is the best mark of these top four. With the abundance of shooting around him on this talented roster, this is a critical component to the team's offensive success.

By his lofty standards, Gilgeous-Alexander is actually off to a bit of a slow start on the scoring front. He's shooting just 28 percent on 3-pointers and 39 percent on short midrange shots, per Cleaning the Glass, both of which are significant decreases from the last few seasons. This has led to scoring "only" 26.5 points per game so far. He is making a concerted effort to shoot more 3s, so it remains to be seen how that will normalize over time.

As the undisputed leader and best player on a dominant Thunder team that is running roughshod over the league early on, Shai gets the nod here for the No. 1 spot in this highly scientific and enduring list of MVP candidates after the first couple weeks of the season.